The Derby & Irish Derby 2009

Galileo said:
10 in the Dante - Freemantle, Crowded House, Black Bear Island, Native Ruler, Redwood, Kite Wood, Monitor Closely, Sans Frontieres, Nehamm and Glass Harmonium.
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6 or 7 in with a chance. Very open race, and i'll be looking at laying Crowded house at 6/4. Freemantle each way looks a good bet also.
 
Black Bear Island and Freemantle have been my Derby picks from last autumn, but I think they will have to be something special if either is going to beat their stablemate Fame and Glory.
 
The link is blocked on the computer I'm using. but what I think is that Mordin is a contrarian who would say black was white if it suited him. The contrarian strategy relies on the principle that people remember when you are right but instantly forget when you are wrong. Personally I wouldn't pay too much attention to anything he has to say. He plays on being sensationalist - e.g. weight in handicaps has no bearing on the outcome (...in fairness I believe he has retracted this one these days).
 
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I can also see the arguement [sic] for saying Fame And Glory could still win the Derby even if he's not that good.
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People who can't spell shouldn't be allowed to have an opinion...

Disscus.

 
He seems to think RVW is the one for the Derby. Plus his systems in Weekender have only found one Guineas winner ( Natagora ) from the last 4 ( 2x 2000G ) ( 2x 1000G ).
 
SteveM said:
but what I think is that Mordin is a contrarian who would say black was white if it suited him. The contrarian strategy relies on the principle that people remember when you are right but instantly forget when you are wrong. Personally I wouldn't pay too much attention to anything he has to say.
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Earlier in the thread you wrote this in regard to your feeling about F&G

SteveM said:
Always hard to put into words and then you never do it justice. What it is is something virtually indefinable that in addition to what you see with your eyes and store in your head you ‘know’ in the pit of your belly. Without sounding too loony it’s about having a connection at a non-literal level.
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For me it`s a sort of punting instinct. I`d like to think I have it (i`ve done ok over the years but i`ve never been one for pouring over form books) but I don`t think Mr Mordin does. He relies on his times and his systems, and the latter is fine when it comes to the Grand National (after all his shortlist contained a 33/1 and a 100/1 winner in two of the last three years) but it`s no good for classics imo. Fame and Glory has Derby winner written all over him. It doesn`t matter who he beat, Galileo won his Derrinstown from the immortal Exhaltation. Sunday he had that wow factor, the same thing Finsceal Beo exhuded in her Boussac win. Of course, she had nowt all to beat in her Classic but anyone betting on the Derby has to have O`Brien`s colt in their portfolio.
 
The problem I have with Mordin is he picks his selections then works his theory around to suit it regardless of contradicting evidence.
 
His fundamental hypothesis is probably sound, and that basically revolves around the notion that in order to make money you need to bet successfully against the crowd (which by definition means taking a contradictory view to the majority). The key word is 'successfully' though. There are times when it will pay to simply sit a race out, and not bet against the crowd for the sake of it.
 
Euronymous said:
Earlier in the thread you wrote this in regard to your feeling about F&G



For me it`s a sort of punting instinct. I`d like to think I have it (i`ve done ok over the years but i`ve never been one for pouring over form books) but I don`t think Mr Mordin does. He relies on his times and his systems, and the latter is fine when it comes to the Grand National (after all his shortlist contained a 33/1 and a 100/1 winner in two of the last three years) but it`s no good for classics imo. Fame and Glory has Derby winner written all over him. It doesn`t matter who he beat, Galileo won his Derrinstown from the immortal Exhaltation. Sunday he had that wow factor, the same thing Finsceal Beo exhuded in her Boussac win. Of course, she had nowt all to beat in her Classic but anyone betting on the Derby has to have O`Brien`s colt in their portfolio.
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The most successful use everything at their disposal for a closer description of reality... but it's judging what weight to attach to different elements with regard to any particular race.

Mordin is obsessed with carving out a contrarian niche for himself, which ensures he'll survive professionally due to a constant polemic/alternative view. Unfortunately this is usually counter to efforts to strive toward a closer description of reality and has no necessary connection to genuine instinct.
 
Boom. Little brother of him over there < is suddenly in the picture after all. Don't think the Dante is going to produce the winner this year though.
 
Smart performance from BBI there, should have no problem with another 2 furlongs. Hard to see the winner not coming from Ballydoyle. How many runners will AO'B have..?
 
Good question. He's got every right to run Fame & Glory, Black Bear Island, Freemantle, Golden Sword, Masterofthehorse, Age of Aquarius and Rip Van Winkle based on what they've shown in the last few weeks. Any reason not to run them all?
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Good question. He's got every right to run Fame & Glory, Black Bear Island, Freemantle, Golden Sword, Masterofthehorse, Age of Aquarius and Rip Van Winkle based on what they've shown in the last few weeks. Any reason not to run them all?
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Run them all bar RVW please Aidan!
 
Sportinglife Report:

Black Bear Island (12-1) came with a rare rattle to pip stablemate Freemantle and give Aidan O'Brien a one-two in the totesport.com Dante Stakes.
Johnny Murtagh tried to make all on Freemantle and a furlong out looked to have stolen the Derby trial.
However, Colm O'Donoghue, apparently on the second-string, absolutely flew home to claim the spoils, with Sans Frontieres also making eyecatching headway late to claim third.

After a week in which O'Brien had won Derby trials with Golden Sword, Age Of Aquarius and Fame And Glory, both his runners on the Knavesmire surprisingly drifted in the betting.
Murtagh had ridden Black Bear Island on his last start in France and warned punters he would improve a great deal.
However, it was Murtagh's mount Freemantle who made them all go, stretching the field out from some way.
Kite Wood had every chance if good enough while 2-1 favourite Crowded House failed to pick up.
But Black Bear Island sprouted wings in the final furlong and High Chaparral's full-brother got up to win by a head.
Victor Chandler reacted by cutting the winner to 10-1 from 20-1 for the Investec Derby, and the runner-up to 12-1 (also from 20s).
O'Donoghue said: "There was plenty of pace on through the race and he travelled really well.
"He really started to get going when I asked him in the final two furlongs and he picked up really well to lead on the line.
"Aidan told me to get him to switch off and relax and to let him enjoy himself through the race.
"What happens next will be up to Aidan, Mr Tabor, Mr Smith and Mr Magnier but I am just happy to have been riding him on the day."
Murtagh said of Freemantle: "He's run a great race, he just got tired in the last 100 yards, the ground was perfect for him."
While all Jamie Spencer had to say about Crowded House was: "He just didn't fire on the day."
Trainer Brian Meehan added: "There was always a chance he might need the run, but possibly he needed it a little bit more than I thought. Jamie said he felt flat and didn't pick up how he can.
"As far as I'm concerned he's still going for the Derby, but we will have to take him back and see how he is."
Barry Simpson, racing manager to Sir Robert Ogden, was thrilled with the third, Sans Frontieres.
He said: "That was a very pleasing run, it was nice to see him really stay on.
"He is still green and immature but I don't know yet what we will do with him now."
Michael Hills felt Redwood ran very flat, saying: "He didn't give me the same feel as he did at Newmarket, I just can't explain it, he was not nearly half the horse.
William Hill now have Irish-trained runners in the front six positions of their Derby betting, and go 1-6 about an Irish winner with 1-3 it hails from Ballydoyle.
 
Hopefully Rip van Winkle will go to Chantily and the other six will all go to Epsom. Why would they risk a possible non stayer in the Derby when they have such a strong hand of colts who will all almost certainly relish the trip, and there is an alternative group one race almost two furlongs shorter on across the channel.
 
As Francome said, If RVW didn't handle Newmarket he won't handle Epsom. Also, the only danger to Ballydoyle seems to be Sea the Stars, and with question marks about his stamina there is sure to be a furious pace on, especially with Golden Sword, Freemantle and AofA in the field. So I would be very surprised to see RVW line up at Epsom.
 
Sea Pigeon said:
As Francome said, If RVW didn't handle Newmarket he won't handle Epsom. Also, the only danger to Ballydoyle seems to be Sea the Stars, and with question marks about his stamina there is sure to be a furious pace on, especially with Golden Sword, Freemantle and AofA in the field. So I would be very surprised to see RVW line up at Epsom.
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Gan Amhras is really being forgotten in all this AOB hype. 14.5 on Betfair now. Way too big, especially when you consider BBI is 10.5.
 
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