The Derby & Irish Derby 2009

SteveM said:
... I've got a feeling that F&G is going to be much better than any of us realise. I think Paddy Power are still 7/1 for Epsom. For anyone not on yet it could be your last chance.
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Fame And Glory looks very very right for this. Those who missed the 9s and 7s may still get 3/1. Even that price may look big on the day.
 
Sea Pigeon said:
Anyone else think Rip Van Winkle must surley be a doubtful runner now?
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Funnily enough no. I’m still expecting Rip to be the main back-up to Fame And Glory, in the same sort of way that Guineas runner-up Hawk Wing backed up High C. I think RVW has better prospects of 12 furlongs than Hawk Wing but less so than Fame And Glory. They’ll still have the option of dropping Rip back in trip after the Derby.

The Dante may tell us something different, but I’m not too fussed now. I think Fame wins.
 
He may well win the Derby but to think he is by far and away the most likely winner at this stage is a big mistake; all he has done this season is beat the same 2 horses, neither who are remotely good enough to win the Derby, twice.

Also, the Dante looks well upto standard, with Crowded House, Freemantle, Black bear island, Native Ruler and Kite Wood all holding varying claims at present.

Throw in an impressive Guineas winner who has a very good chance of staying, plus another Guineas runner (Gan amhras) who ran a great Derby trial at Newmarket.

3/1 now is a very poor price for fame and glory
 
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Hamm said:
He may well win the Derby but to think he is by far and away the most likely winner at this stage is a big mistake
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In your opinion, not mine. I can see so much in this colt beyond the evidence of his form to date. He is right on the money for this race. The others haven't got quite the same aptitude as this one either in terms of stamina suitability or class.

I'm good when it come to seeing proper Derby types (if I'm good at anything) and this is it.

I'd be amazed if the Dante shows me anything better.
 
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Its hard to imagine that he will not improve considerably for 12 furlongs. Thats the frightening thing....winning over 1m2f in heavy ground last season but has the pace to travel like he did yesterday on good ground.

I find it interesting that Mourayan is suddenly a horse that is not a good measure or test etc. He put it up to Sea The Stars and Masterofthehorse last season and he has been hammered twice by Fame And Glory recieving weight.
 
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I can sense a few people getting the Derby "feel" from FAG

the problem with getting that feel from my experience is that you automatically discard other horses..you find a reason for them not being good enough..to keep the feeling going...now how good are you guys instincts?

can't remember looking forward to a Derby so much
 
EC1 said:
I can sense a few people getting the Derby "feel" from FAG

the problem with getting that feel from my experience is that you automatically discard other horses..you find a reason for them not being good enough..to keep the feeling going...now how good are you guys instincts?

can't remember looking forward to a Derby so much
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It's true there are one or two other nice types in there ready to take advantage if the good colt goes wrong. I'm not expending any more effort on this though, he'll go in on rails.
 
Galileo said:
Its hard to imagine that he will not improve considerably for 12 furlongs. Thats the frightening thing....winning over 1m2f in heavy ground last season but has the pace to travel like he did yesterday on good ground.

I find it interesting that Mourayan is suddenly a horse that is not a good measure or test etc. He put it up to Sea The Stars and Masterofthehorse last season and he has been hammered twice by Fame And Glory recieving weight.
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Sea the stars won the Beresford despite the ground that day, which did him no favours. Taking collateral form from that race would be a dangerous game.

FAG has also not run on fast ground as yet, which is more than likely what the going will be come Derby day.

The form lines which have propelled FAG to as short as 5/2 are based on his form against 2 colts who, now, are clearly not top standard. Mourayan has been off the bridle at worryingly early stages in both races, indicating he is far from a good horse over 1m2.
 
SteveM said:
In your opinion, not mine. I can see so much in this colt beyond the evidence of his form to date. He is right on the money for this race. The others haven't got quite the same aptitude as this one either in terms of stamina suitability or class.

I'm good when it come to seeing proper Derby types (if I'm good at anything) and this is it.

I'd be amazed if the Dante shows me anything better.
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Fair enough, but I am interested as to what you see in him beyond his (impressive) defeats of Mourayan and the Bolger horse?

Any thoughts on his action (for fast ground)?
 
Hamm said:
Sea the stars won the Beresford despite the ground that day, which did him no favours. Taking collateral form from that race would be a dangerous game.

FAG has also not run on fast ground as yet, which is more than likely what the going will be come Derby day.

The form lines which have propelled FAG to as short as 5/2 are based on his form against 2 colts who, now, are clearly not top standard. Mourayan has been off the bridle at worryingly early stages in both races, indicating he is far from a good horse over 1m2.
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What do we make of yesterdays ground? Summit Surge is a fast ground horse.....ground was pretty quick yesterday and Epsom is happy to water but of course we are not guaranteed a fast ground Epsom anyway.
 
Epsom do everything they can to avoid fast ground for the Derby these days. Not always succesfully (Sir Percy's connections will probably tell you) but they try...
 
Hamm said:
Fair enough, but I am interested as to what you see in him beyond his (impressive) defeats of Mourayan and the Bolger horse?

Any thoughts on his action (for fast ground)?
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Always hard to put into words and then you never do it justice. What it is is something virtually indefinable that in addition to what you see with your eyes and store in your head you ‘know’ in the pit of your belly. Without sounding too loony it’s about having a connection at a non-literal level.

He’ll pick up off a fast pace in three strides yes, he’s balanced and as fluid as you’d like, yes. He’ll certainly get the trip and has the speed to lay up with a Guineas winner. But it’s more than this it’s something you know beyond the literal. This colt has it.
 
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From today's Irish Times:

Certainly there was plenty to ponder yesterday for Sea The Stars’ trainer John Oxx who declared immediately afterwards: “The winner was impressive. We will certainly need to stay the trip if we are going to beat that fellah!”
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By Sam Walker2.06PM 11 MAY 2009
WORLD CLASS: An analysis of the best performances of last week according to Racing Post Ratings
TOP OF THE CLASS: Fame And Glory 120+ (Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial, Leopardstown, 1m2f, May 10)
NEW Derby favourite Fame And Glory posted the best performance in the world last week according to RPRs - but he stands in third place among Epsom contenders with a rating of 120+ for his easy success in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial on Sunday.
However, the Derrinstown has been a good stepping stone for Classic success in recent years, with Sinndar, Galileo and High Chaparral all scoring at Leopardstown before going on to do the Epsom-Curragh Derby double.
Aidan O'Brien's latest winner could well add another Derby to that impressive tally, as he is the highest rated winner of the 1m2f contest in the last ten years, a pound higher than High Chaparral and Galileo.
That doesn't, of course, mean that he will end up running as well as that duo did at Epsom, but it is certainly not a bad thing for those expecting the son of Montjeu to extend his unbeaten run into June.
The form of Sunday's race is fairly easy to assess, as they went a good clip and Mourayan (107), Fergus McIver (106) and Hail Caesar (101) have all run within a pound of their Ballysax figures.
Fame And Glory has clearly improved since then, extending his margin over Fergus McIver from one length to five-and-a-half lengths, and he did it in some style, travelling much the best throughout and quickening clear inside the final furlong to score readily.
He currently sits third behind Sea The Stars (123) and Crowded House (121) in the Derby pecking order.
 
F&G has a good ground action and will get the trip well.He's a top animal with a great presence and will win Grp 1's if he stays sound. For a montjeu he's nice and calm.He's a big lad though, so the terrain at Epsom is the only question mark for me. I don't think Sea the stars is a 1m4f horse so at the moment it's between f&g and Crowded house with crowded house yet to show he has improved from last year like F&G has. There's no point in trying to pick holes in what he has achieved to date as there aren't any.
 
I backed f&g for the Derby at average odds of 37.75 and I still cannot understand what was Heffernan thinking winning a prep race by 5l. I much rather would have seen a 2l on the bridle win yesterday.

Regarding rpr, I find hard to believe that Mourayan has run 7 pounds lower than his Beresford rating. I also think Hc is slowing improving and F&G rating is at least 9 pounds inferior of what it should be.

Hopefully CH will justify my ante-post bet on him this week and I will be in a nice position on Derby day.

I am prepared to accept STS has improved since his Beresford, but I find a little bit surprising that he still remains favourite for the Derby (in some bookies) after yesterday, with doubts about the distance and ground for him on the day.
 
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Galileo said:
What do we make of yesterdays ground? Summit Surge is a fast ground horse.....ground was pretty quick yesterday and Epsom is happy to water but of course we are not guaranteed a fast ground Epsom anyway.
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+2.64 (slower side of Good to Firm)

Might be some evidence of a tailwind in the back straight and headwind in the home straight, as the faster times were set at the mid distances, and slowest over shorter, but two of the 7 races broke standard, whilst two others adjust slow enough for me to think there's a pace, rather than ground issue
 
Great thanks Warbler, unlikely Epsom will ride any faster than that.

When I saw Summit Surge win I knew it had to be better than just good.
 
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