The Derby Sat June 5th 2021

Until he proves otherwise, I'm happy to assume he will.

Every year there are two or three horses that people doubt and as often as not it's something else that no one had expressed any doubts about that ends up reportedly not acting on the track.

If Coolmore withdraw him on account of that fear, that's different but I reckon they'll let him take his chance. They'll know from the other day how much better he'll be for the run, more time to get over the iffy blood test and the extra trip.

Other than not actually winning the Dante, I was very happy with the performance and the more I see it the more I like it.
 
but High Definition finished quickest of all in the Dante – after taking an eternity to hit top stride – and goes up more. The last-named has always looked a horse who may need even further than than this to excel
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The signs were there in both last season's narrow wins, he'll need further at the top level, imo.
 
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Bolshoi Ballet....Epsom
High Definition....Curragh

Moore gets to ride both..

If you took the two at face value and going on what we have seen so far. At Epsom, Bolshoi would be gone before HD got going, but at the Curragh, you could see them being much closer.

For Epsom, Bolshoi will have had an extra week's recovery time!
 
Slim said:
I would say absolutely not. I'd run him over 10f again before trying 12f. He's too green for Epsom.
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I think it may be soon enough too. Time will tell.

You think HD should be shorter than Dante winner?
 
Maxbet said:
Bolshoi Ballet....Epsom
High Definition....Curragh

Moore gets to ride both..

If you took the two at face value and going on what we have seen so far. At Epsom, Bolshoi would be gone before HD got going, but at the Curragh, you could see them being much closer.

For Epsom, Bolshoi will have had an extra week's recovery time!
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Had a longish chat on the phone with the brother today to mull over yesterday's racing and the trials.

He is of the opinion that Bolshoi Ballet might - for now - be better at 10f.

I'm tempted to argue that the sectionals back this up. As I said at the time, it was an unusually aggressive ride he got in the Derrinstown, something the sectionals suggest too.

As far as High Definition is concerned, I am totally convinced he will be MUCH better at the Derby trip. I'm not bothered by how long it took him to hit top gear at York. It was a 10(+)f race, contested largely by 9-10f horses. The majority of his opponents at Epsom will be 12f horses or won't stay. The 12f horses probably won't be any faster to hit top gear and few will have his strength in the final two furlongs.

Thereafter it's down to the known unknown of acting on the track.

To say he'll be 10 lengths better at 12f than at the Dante trip involves a degree of hopeful speculation on my part. I admit that. But to quantify the implications helps set some perspective.

At the Derby trip 10 lengths is 15lbs. Simon Rowlands has High Definition on 112 for the Dante and I reckon it is generally accepted that the horse will be better over 12f. That 15lbs' improvement would take him to 127, which is above average for a Derby winner.

That would allow a margin of error of about 5lbs in a season that, so far, has produced underwhelming figures for the opening classics and the vast majority of the trials for HD still to run out a comfortable winner.

Assuming they let him run, of course...

:)
 
High Definition is a boat. He's a St Leger horse. I'd much rather be backing the high class horse that excels at 10f stretching to 12f than hoping a boat will get away with it at the trip.
 
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Slim said:
High Definition is a boat.
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If he's a boat, he's yar.

Also, a boat wouldn't have been able to come from last to first the way he did last season.

Also, Simon Rowlands discusses his stride pattern. He says it's that of a 10-12f horse but that Camelots tend to stay much better than their stride pattern suggests.

We know how much AOB's improve from their first run to their second, Bolshoi Ballet being a case in point. If HD improves as much for his reappearance as BB did from his, they won't see which way he goes.

:)
 
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Frankel said:
I would have the Dante winner shorter of the two myself. How he copes at Epsom we'll see.

So no chance the Varian horse?
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Which Varian horse? The fact I can't think of one off the top of my head doesn't say much for it.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
If he's a boat, he's yar.

Also, a boat wouldn't have been able to come from last to first the way he did last season.

Also, Simon Rowlands discusses his stride pattern. He says it's that of a 10-12f horse but that Camelots tend to stay much better than their stride pattern suggests.

We know how much AOB's improve from their first run to their second, Bolshoi Ballet being a case in point. If HD improves as much for his reappearance as BB did from his, they won't see which way he goes.

:)
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Simon Rowlands is what he is. He's called some absolute donkeys good horses based on such criteria. Watch that York race back and tell me he's not a boat.
 
Slim said:
Simon Rowlands is what he is. He's called some absolute donkeys good horses based on such criteria. Watch that York race back and tell me he's not a boat.
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We all get it wrong probably more often than we get it right but he's one of the foremost 'sectionalistas'.

What I saw at York was a horse that [according to the ITV people] would improve physically for the run, we know that it was only just over an unsatisfactory blood test and is bred to come into his own at 12f+.

They went a good pace mid-race in the Dante and, while I was a wee bit disappointed it took him so long to find his stride, find it he did (says he doing his best Yoda impression) and he was finishing by far the strongest.

I think it was the winning jockey who said they crawled for the first half-mile and then Hollie Doyle started to pick it up out in front. I have no doubt she was riding to instructions so that HD could learn from the experience, given that he's highly unlikely to be out again before the big race.

In the Derby itself, I've no doubt Coolmore will ensure a pace that will play to High Definition's strengths. There will be no sudden injection of pace after five furlongs (because they'll still be going uphill at that point) and [assuming the track isn't an issue] High Definition will be hitting top gear two furlongs out when the rest are already at their max and about to slow down as they hit the one pole.

At that point he will power past them like Nashwan.

Chr1st, they should just give him the prize right now and save everybody a lot of bother.

:lol:
 
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Frankel said:
So the trainer was wrong then?
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I might be getting mixed up, now that I think about it.

It might have been Charlie Appleby who said re Hurricane Lane that they had had other horses run well in trials and they felt this one was better. That said, the other ones haven't done that much: Adayar, Yibir, etc.

I think maybe Varian just said he was happy with the way his horses were running in the trials.
 
Frankel said:
Does the fav want the same aswell though?
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I'm not sure the favourite will stay but I can understand why people would think he will. He should on his dosage figures but I can't get that aggressive ride in the Derrinstown out of my head. Very un-O'Brien.

Simon Rowlands has BB on 117 but even if he can hit 120 at 12f I can't see that being good enough to win the Derby. If he kicks early like he did in the Derrinstown he'll be treading water in the final furlong.
 
Coolmore are generally poor at setting their own pace, and the naff ride on Roman Empire in the Dante sort of sums their approach to it.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'm not sure the favourite will stay but I can understand why people would think he will. He should on his dosage figures but I can't get that aggressive ride in the Derrinstown out of my head. Very un-O'Brien.

Simon Rowlands has BB on 117 but even if he can hit 120 at 12f I can't see that being good enough to win the Derby. If he kicks early like he did in the Derrinstown he'll be treading water in the final furlong.
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They ran him over 10f as a 2yo and he just destroyed a good field in one of the best trials yet you are making it sound like a concession that he might improve 3lbs for stepping up to 1m 4f.

Yours Confused
Cork
 
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