The Derby Sat June 5th 2021

Frankel said:
Think Willie Carson said something similar. Unless I misheard him, when pushed I think he sided with HD over the fav.
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Yes, the brother introduced that into the conversation yesterday. Maybe that's why I thought it was the brother that said it. Maybe he was passing on Carson's take. I didn't see the interview myself. I'll check the recording.

Slim, there have been plenty of good horses that won over 10f as a juvenile that ended up not staying a true-run 12f at three. I think he'll stay and I think he'll improve but nowhere near as much as HD. Rather than get bogged down with his run in the Dante, I prefer to think of his finishing efforts last season.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I think he'll stay and I think he'll improve but nowhere near as much as HD. Rather than get bogged down with his run in the Dante, I prefer to think of his finishing efforts last season.
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All which point to pretty much the same inference; outpaced, like a horse that needs a trip.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yes, the brother introduced that into the conversation yesterday. Maybe that's why I thought it was the brother that said it. Maybe he was passing on Carson's take. I didn't see the interview myself. I'll check the recording.

Slim, there have been plenty of good horses that won over 10f as a juvenile that ended up not staying a true-run 12f at three. I think he'll stay and I think he'll improve but nowhere near as much as HD. Rather than get bogged down with his run in the Dante, I prefer to think of his finishing efforts last season.
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How many 10f juvenile races are there each year?
 
I'd much rather be on a horse with a slight stamina doubt than an outright boat like High Definition.
 
Just watched the Carson interview.

Said Moore had a very difficult choice and that BB & HD were the 1-2.

When pressed for which one would win he said he'd need to ride them in their work then decide. When further pressed he said HD.

Re BB - "Might not stay, was my opinion. Didn't go away from these animals in the last furlong." (In my opinion, that's because Moore was so aggressive on him in the previous half-mile.)

"... the horse in the Dante was staying on, was learning every stride, the only thing about him was did he learn enough to see him coming down that hill at Epsom... hopefully [Moore] can keep him on the bridle coming down the hill and as soon as he gets over that road in the straight, lerrim go!"
 
Interesting debate. O’Brien’s horses generally come on for their first run so let’s say that’s equals. BB’s was the most impressive trial, but the Dante was the strongest race in depth. I think BB rightly replaced HD as favourite so the question is whether HD can resurrect his position. The only evidence is how he ran the Dante.

He looked tapped for toe as the pace increased coming into the straight and he went to the back of the field, took a long time to get going and was pretty laboured in the final part. Although he ran on well he never had the pace to challenge the winner. It’s also worth noting that the winner himself was similarly tapped for toe coming into the straight, but he picked up much the better. Both of them looked as though the extra two furlongs would suit and I’m not even convinced HD would beat Hurricane Lane next time.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Just watched the Carson interview.

Said Moore had a very difficult choice and that BB & HD were the 1-2.

When pressed for which one would win he said he'd need to ride them in their work then decide. When further pressed he said HD.

Re BB - "Might not stay, was my opinion. Didn't go away from these animals in the last furlong." (In my opinion, that's because Moore was so aggressive on him in the previous half-mile.)

"... the horse in the Dante was staying on, was learning every stride, the only thing about him was did he learn enough to see him coming down that hill at Epsom... hopefully [Moore] can keep him on the bridle coming down the hill and as soon as he gets over that road in the straight, lerrim go!"
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When did Willie Carson become an opinion worth hearing?
 
Slim said:
I'd much rather be on a horse with a slight stamina doubt than an outright boat like High Definition.
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I really don't get this idea that HD is a 'boat'. He achieved an RPR of 113 in the Beresford in which, three furlongs out he was about 10 lengths behind the leader, by the two-pole had reduced it so about 7L (the whole field was quickening at this point), by the one-pole it was down to four lengths with a new leader taking over and quickening again. At the half-furlong pole he was still two lengths down to a leader who was putting distance between himself and the others. He still won by nearly a length and was already two clear two strides later. Now I think that late leader stopped in the last 20 yards but it was still a deeply impressive final furlong from HD and, on RPRs, a 28lbs improvement on his debut run.

I'm not suggesting for a nanosecond that he'll improve another 28lbs but I don't think a stone is out of the question, in which case the only issue will be the track.

All that said, I realise I'll look very silly if they take him out or if Moore opts for BB but if he goes and wins the Derby, people who call him a boat will look just as silly. (I'm thinking in particular of Chapman who suggested he's a Triumph Hurdle horse.)

If he fails because he didn't handle the track, I'd call it a no-score draw.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I'm not sure the favorite will stay but I can understand why people would think he will. He should on his dosage figures but I can't get that aggressive ride in the Derrinstown out of my head. Very un-O'Brien.

Simon Rowlands has BB on 117 but even if he can hit 120 at 12f I can't see that being good enough to win the Derby. If he kicks early as he did in the Derrinstown he'll be treading water in the final furlong.
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There's a good reason for being ridden aggressively in the Derrinstown DO...Moore knew he would stay.....Bolger put a pacemaker in for Mac Swiney, the jockey on the pacemaker dropped his hands and let it roll back through the field just before the 3-furlong poll. At this point, Bolshoi Ballet cruised up to the lead and with little or no effort at all, put all the others off the bridle.

Moore then tested his theory on Bolshoi's stamina....winning easily.

This is what Moore said after the Ballysax..."One thing he did there was hit the line hard, and you would anticipate him appreciating an extra 2f or so too, down the line."
 
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Slim said:
When did Willie Carson become an opinion worth hearing?
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On most things he isn't. But I respect his opinion on how a horse runs as much as I respect jinnyj's on how a horse looks.

Compare it with Piggot who would probably just say 'they're both nice horses'.
 
Maxbet said:
... Bolshoi Ballet cruised up to the lead and with little or no effort at all, ...
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You saw a different race from me, Maxbet.

BB was kept close to the pace and thoroughly rousted along to go clear approaching the straight and kept right up to his work to the line but he wasn't going away from them late on.

However, I respect your opinion enough to make me want to go and watch the replay.

If I have reason to change my opinion to match yours, I will.
 
Desert Orchid said:
You saw a different race from me, Maxbet.

BB was kept close to the pace and thoroughly rousted along to go clear approaching the straight and kept right up to his work to the line but he wasn't going away from them late on.

However, I respect your opinion enough to make me want to go and watch the replay.

If I have reason to change my opinion to match yours, I will.
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He was cruising when he took it up DO, then Moore pressed the button....He'd already had a winner and I think that Moore grasped that; Front runners were holding sway on the day.
 
Watched the replay.

BB followed the leader, smoothly moved past between the 4 and 3 poles as the pacemaker weakened, Between the 3 and 2 Moore gets low and rides BB pretty vigorously but without recourse to the whip to go clear with everything else also hard driven, at the 2 pole he's three lengths in front and driven, by the one pole he's six clear and getting a tap behind, then is driven all the way to the line but not getting any further clear.

If the notion of 'little or no effort at all' refers to the race between the 4 and 3 poles then, yes, it was before Moore got serious. But neither Mac Swiney nor Fernando Vichi was making a serious effort at that stage either and they followed him just as easily.

FV's jockey appeared to anticipate BB's move and he immediately got after his horse vigorously. Mac Swiney was the big disappointment in that he couldn't go with the quickening pace and was overtaken by FV and Lough Derg. Those three had a scrap like a handicap finish but BB wasn't getting any further clear despite being ridden right out. Fernando Vicho kept on for third but he was a 98-rated 25/1 shot. Lough Derg didn't have a rating but his best previous RPR was 103 when second to BB the time before. So, ridden more aggressively off a faster pace, BB has improved 3 lengths (call it 6lbs). RPRs have allowed BB 13lbs for six lengths, which is generous. It should be about 11lbs. Over a horse now rated 105.

So Simon Rowlands's 117 is in the right ball park.

High Definition got an RPR of 113 as a juvenile with every seasoned observer saying how much better he will be over middle distances as a 3yo. Timeform had him on 111P. I don't know if they have a notional quantifier for the P but I suspect it's not less than 7lbs otherwise the small p would suffice.

I understand the argument that BB be deemed favourite in that he has produced the best performance so far.

But that's all it is.

So far.
 
Desert Orchid said:
High Definition got an RPR of 113 as a juvenile with every seasoned observer saying how much better he will be over middle distances as a 3yo. Timeform had him on 111P. I don't know if they have a notional quantifier for the P but I suspect it's not less than 7lbs otherwise the small p would suffice. I understand the argument that BB be deemed favorite in that he has produced the best performance so far.

But that's all it is.So far.
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High Definition fell short of his OR by 5Lb's at York...Maybe he hasn't trained on:p...But 10Lb improvement (if) for fitness and the extra distance will only put him about par with Bolshoi Ballet's expected progress.

With so much guesswork it's hard to say which way they will play out...but I think a decision about where they go had already been made, the rushed run at York was, for the most part, "well let's see"....But Aiden knows he doesn't put them through full work until 2 weeks after a run, which leaves High Definition a week to get fully fit.

Of The two, stature-wise; I'd say Bolshoi Ballet will handle Epsom better and High Definition has already won twice going right-handed, so the Curragh would make more sense.
 
Desert Orchid said:
"... the horse in the Dante was staying on, was learning every stride, the only thing about him was did he learn enough to see him coming down that hill at Epsom... hopefully [Moore] can keep him on the bridle coming down the hill and as soon as he gets over that road in the straight, lerrim go!"
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When did Moore suddenly become the good guy?? :D
 
Maxbet said:
High Definition fell short of his OR by 5Lb's at York...Maybe he hasn't trained on:p...But 10Lb improvement (if) for fitness and the extra distance will only put him about par with Bolshoi Ballet's expected progress.

With so much guesswork it's hard to say which way they will play out...but I think a decision about where they go had already been made, the rushed run at York was, for the most part, "well let's see"....But Aiden knows he doesn't put them through full work until 2 weeks after a run, which leaves High Definition a week to get fully fit.

Of The two, stature-wise; I'd say Bolshoi Ballet will handle Epsom better and High Definition has already won twice going right-handed, so the Curragh would make more sense.
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All very fair points.
 
From the RP today:

Aidan O'Brien is convinced High Definition will improve considerably for his comeback at York last week and the master trainer thought there were more positives than negatives to be dissected from his Dante third.

High Definition spent all winter as ante-post favourite for the Cazoo Derby, but he missed his intended engagement in the Lingfield Derby Trial earlier in the month due to a blood disorder, and was usurped at the top of the market by Bolshoi Ballet following his stablemate's wide-margin win in the Derrinstown Derby Trial.

Just as was the case in his two races as a juvenile, High Definition found himself a long way back turning for home in the Dante, but he stayed on strongly to finish two lengths behind Hurricane Lane at the line, and O'Brien thinks you might just see a different horse at Epsom. He is a general 9-2 shot for the Derby, but 11-2 with Coral.

O'Brien said: "High Definition is good and came out of York well. He obviously hasn't done a lot since then, but he seems to be in good form at home. We were very happy with the run. You'd have to be very happy. Four days before the race he wasn't going to run at all so you'd have to be very happy with what he did. He will come forward plenty for it, there is no doubt about that. Ryan [Moore] was very happy with him.

"The pace kind of died a bit in the middle of the race and it might not have suited him as he is a strong stayer. He was only beaten a couple of lengths in the end and he wasn't stopping."
 
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Mac Swiney is the kind of horse that cannot put two good runs together but is quite talented nonetheless.
The Ballydoyle conundrum as usual is that they can run half a dozen and you cannot let any Galileo have an easy lead as they may not stop.
HD may not be able to go the pace early thus making his job more difficult.
Dancing Brave ran out of ground at Epsom and HD is no DB .
Bolshoi Ballet's pedigree is intriguing : Galileo (Sadlers Wells/ Northern Dancer) dam by Anabaa (Danzig /Northern Dancer) grandam by Fabulous Dancer (Northern Dancer )
Too much of a good thing ?

One question; does anyone see Hollie Doyle riding for Ballydoyle in Derby ?
On the right free running Galileo she could steal it and make history.
 
edgt said:
Mac Swiney is the kind of horse that cannot put two good runs together but is quite talented nonetheless.
The Ballydoyle conundrum as usual is that they can run half a dozen and you cannot let any Galileo have an easy lead as they may not stop.
HD may not be able to go the pace early thus making his job more difficult.
Dancing Brave ran out of ground at Epsom and HD is no DB .
Bolshoi Ballet's pedigree is intriguing : Galileo (Sadlers Wells/ Northern Dancer) dam by Anabaa (Danzig /Northern Dancer) grandam by Fabulous Dancer (Northern Dancer )
Too much of a good thing ?

One question; does anyone see Hollie Doyle riding for Ballydoyle in Derby ?
On the right free running Galileo she could steal it and make history.
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One thing is for certain. They will be no Ballydoyle soft lead this year.
 
Slim said:
One thing is for certain. They will be no Ballydoyle soft lead this year.
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On the contrary, the machine gun approach means plenty of runners and Tandem pacemakers, who's going to go with them and compromise their own chances?
 
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