The Derby Sat June 5th 2021

Talk about the Bolshoi Ballet and Roman Empire (and indirectly High Definition) reminds me of the Noel Murless/Busted story. In July 1966 Noel was at Lingfield tring to get one of his owner breeders' fillies to win her maiden. He went into a tea bar and watched the Irish Derby on the TV. He saw a horse, whose colours he recognised as he trained for the owner, leading the field at a very generous pace and then fading totally. In his mind he was looking for a lead-horse for his 1967 Classic colt, Royal Palace (amazing this in itself, by then Royal Palace had run once and finished 5th in the Coventry Stakes) and considered this colt he'd just seen as a horse that could be purchased. He put it out of his mind later as Royal Palace was owned by Jim Joel and the colt he'd seen was owned by his cousin Stanhope and he felt he could cause an upset if he subsequently improved the colt. That colt was Busted and later in the year Murless met up with his owner and asked him what plans he had for him. When Stanhope Joel said he was planning to geld him and send him hurdling. Murless's response was 'Christ, don't do that. You'd better send him to me'.
Busted was transferred from Featherstonhaugh in Ireland to Warren Place. He became the Champion Racehorse of 1967 and was never beaten again. He famously won the Eclipse and King George on consecutive Saturdays and was as tough as anything.

I recount this because what Murless did was get the horse to be ridden differently to how he'd been ridden thus far. He had always been up with the pace until then but was taught to settle and come with a run from two furlongs out. And I'll put this story together with what the late great Joe Mercer always said that you can only make one run in a race.
Now we see some good discussion here about will this horse stay or will that horse be fast enough. As regards Bolshoi Ballet I get the point that Moore tried to settle his 10f race from 3-4 furlongs out. But what if he hadn't? What if he'd waited another furlong or so, would he still have won or as easily? My view is that he might easily have done so. He wasn't going further away because Moore started his 'run' so early. Now the Dante: Roman Empire set a strong pace but then coming into the straight injected further pace such that he was well clear 2 and 1/2 furlongs out. He could hardly lift his legs in the last furlong and the 3 horses came past him (a bit like Busted in the Irish Derby). Despite this fast pace the race time was nothing special and was slower than the earlier Middleton Stakes where the field had been led sedately by Chamade for the first half of the race. Fast pace setting often doesn't lead to fast times. If Roman Empire had been held onto for another furlong or so would he have been nearer. What is being said is that High Definition needs the extra 2f and will then go past the horses that beat him that day. That may be right that he needs 12f ( though this reliance on dosage figures interests me), but will he be fast enough to get himself into the race so as to be able to exert that extra stamina that will enable him to win the day. He only beat Roman Empire by a little more than 2 lengths. I struggle with this idea.

Ridden correctly I think Bolshoi Ballet could be a Derby winner. How does Moore ride High Definition: when does he start his run? And is it worth running Roman Empire if he gets over his Dante exertions?

To finish off the Busted story he did gallop once with Royal Palace in early 1967 but Murless sensibly decided that if he let them gallop together they'd kill each other.
 
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I agree to an extent about BB in the sense that going for home so early compromised his finish. I believe I said something that amounted to the same thing earlier. To an extent, this is factored into the sectional upgrades.

As a slight aside, I'm not convinced by the formula for sectional upgrading. What is offered as an upgrade in pounds I'm more inclined to allow in lengths. Roman Empire's upgrade was only 5lbs. That's just under three lengths at the Dante trip. I think his finishing position was compromised much more than that.

I'm not convinced at all that HD will struggle to go the gallop in the Derby. Buick said they crawled for the first half-mile. Then Hollie Doyle, presumably acting on instructions, fired RE a long way clear. that got the rest of the field going after her while HD was working his way up through the gears. I reckon if they go a faster pace, as they almost certainly will in the first half-mile of the Derby, HD will warm up quicker. I'll be happy if he's within ten lengths of the peloton turning for home. Again, this assumes he handles the track.

Ideally, though, I'd want him to be in the Frankie spot. I don't recall Moore ever getting a Derby mount into that position. To that end I'd be happier if they offered Frankie the ride.
 
Ah! Busted, I was there at Sandown - unfortunately on Great Nephew.



Ps: well, not me, it was Bill Rickaby up - but you know what I mean :)
 
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I agree to an extent about BB in the sense that going for home so early compromised his finish. I believe I said something that amounted to the same thing earlier. To an extent, this is factored into the sectional upgrades.

As a slight aside, I'm not convinced by the formula for sectional upgrading. What is offered as an upgrade in pounds I'm more inclined to allow in lengths. Roman Empire's upgrade was only 5lbs. That's just under three lengths at the Dante trip. I think his finishing position was compromised much more than that.

I'm not convinced at all that HD will struggle to go the gallop in the Derby. Buick said they crawled for the first half-mile. Then Hollie Doyle, presumably acting on instructions, fired RE a long way clear. that got the rest of the field going after her while HD was working his way up through the gears. I reckon if they go a faster pace, as they almost certainly will in the first half-mile of the Derby, HD will warm up quicker. I'll be happy if he's within ten lengths of the peloton turning for home. Again, this assumes he handles the track.

Ideally, though, I'd want him to be in the Frankie spot. I don't recall Moore ever getting a Derby mount into that position. To that end I'd be happier if they offered Frankie the ride.

Working his way up through the gears? He was being niggled before they turned for home like the boat he is.
 
On the contrary, the machine gun approach means plenty of runners and Tandem pacemakers, who's going to go with them and compromise their own chances?

I don't see them having a machine gun approach this year. They will want a good pace to suit the favourite something that could not be said last year.
 
29 left in at today's acceptance stage:

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/17/epsom/2021-06-05/747175/

I've had a pop at One Ruler 40/1 as possibly the most obvious value punt left at this stage. On dosage I can't see him staying but he was winning at a mile as a juvenile (and in soft) so he might stay better than his breeding suggests and he was one of the highest rated juveniles of those now standing their ground. And it's a huge price considering the hype that saw him head the Guineas market for a while earlier in the spring.

If he runs he won't be 40/1. If he stays he's entitled to run very well.
 
29 left in at today's acceptance stage:

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/17/epsom/2021-06-05/747175/

I've had a pop at One Ruler 40/1 as possibly the most obvious value punt left at this stage. On dosage I can't see him staying but he was winning at a mile as a juvenile (and in soft) so he might stay better than his breeding suggests and he was one of the highest rated juveniles of those now standing their ground. And it's a huge price considering the hype that saw him head the Guineas market for a while earlier in the spring.

If he runs he won't be 40/1. If he stays he's entitled to run very well.

James Doyle said he was too slow for the Guineas. I'd susoect he's not up to Group 1 class at 3.
 
It's true what they say about differing opinions.

In the Weekender, Alistair Jones reckons High Definition will win and later I'll mention what Ken Pitterson says about Logician in his ATR blog.

Some key quotes from AJ:

...this is the Derby, the one on which Coolmore are building a legacy. The Irish version is an afterthought.

...there were distinct shades of Workforce in his performance.

High Definition is a good thing to reverse those placings [with Hurricane Lane] at Epsom.

If anything, High Definition enhanced his reputation in defeat.

If fitter, meaner and ridden to his strengths, the son of Galileo will be unrecognisable from York.

If High Definition misses the gig it will be for good reason and so be it, but it won't be because connections doubt his ability. If he does run, I reckon he'll win the thing.


As for Logician, I'm pretty sure the TV people said he looked badly in need of the run. I think someone on here said something similar. The brother on the phone the other day said Logician was fat.

Ken Pitterson: Logician looked fit and well.

KP also expressed "grave doubts" about HD handling Epsom.
 
29 left in at today's acceptance stage:

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/17/epsom/2021-06-05/747175/

I've had a pop at One Ruler 40/1 as possibly the most obvious value punt left at this stage. On dosage I can't see him staying but he was winning at a mile as a juvenile (and in soft) so he might stay better than his breeding suggests and he was one of the highest rated juveniles of those now standing their ground. And it's a huge price considering the hype that saw him head the Guineas market for a while earlier in the spring.

If he runs he won't be 40/1. If he stays he's entitled to run very well.

Blue in a few places this afternoon. Maybe his home work is picking up again.

High Definition also blue pretty much across the board and down to 7/2 in quite a few places.
 
Irish 2000 Guineas on Saturday.

Van Gogh will either run in the guineas or the derby you'd have thought.

I don't know the chances of going for both, but I think its probably unlikely.
 
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It's true what they say about differing opinions.

In the Weekender, Alistair Jones reckons High Definition will win and later I'll mention what Ken Pitterson says about Logician in his ATR blog.

Some key quotes from AJ:

...this is the Derby, the one on which Coolmore are building a legacy. The Irish version is an afterthought.

...there were distinct shades of Workforce in his performance.

High Definition is a good thing to reverse those placings [with Hurricane Lane] at Epsom.

If anything, High Definition enhanced his reputation in defeat.

If fitter, meaner and ridden to his strengths, the son of Galileo will be unrecognisable from York.

If High Definition misses the gig it will be for good reason and so be it, but it won't be because connections doubt his ability. If he does run, I reckon he'll win the thing.


As for Logician, I'm pretty sure the TV people said he looked badly in need of the run. I think someone on here said something similar. The brother on the phone the other day said Logician was fat.

Ken Pitterson: Logician looked fit and well.

KP also expressed "grave doubts" about HD handling Epsom.

Who the **** is Alistair Jones? A paper never refuses ink.
 
He's been the page 2-3 opinionist, if I can coin the word, for a few years now. Sometimes right, often wildly wrong :lol:
 
Ken Pitterson comments I can only say fair enough. I still think it's not a horse to give up on. There will be another day.
 
From what I saw of Ken Pitterson I thought he was pretty useless a paddock judge. He didn’t remotely explain why horses did or didn’t look well/fit. All he did was mention a line on the stomach. Or why HD could struggle at Epsom (because he is a tall horse with a long hind leg and consequently his balance could be thrown off especially as he tries to negotiate a downhill bend at speed on a camber). I felt he was a complete waste of time. I would do a far, far better job....:)

You know I could sit on a horse and tell you which sort of racecourse it needed to run on. And for Epsom it really does need one that is very well balanced and is able to gallop downhill as freely as uphill. The vast majority of racehorses never get to gallop downhill at home because their training gallops are all on the level or uphill. Some of the bigger private yards I believe do have a Derby gallop (?) But very few. So it can be incredibly hard for a horse to relax into his shoulders and “let go” and many racehorses gallop “on their forehand”. This means that they tend to gallop with their front end instead of engaging their back end as efficiently. For Epsom (and Brighton, to a lesser extent Goodwood) you need a really well balanced, often short coupled (that is shorter in the back) horse that finds any change in gradient easy. You can teach a horse to learn balance and this is obviously something that dressage riders would do as a matter of course. When I retrained my own horse for hunting, we have very steep hills here in Somerset and it was pretty damn scary at first. But he did learn....it was just something he was not used to.

Right this mornings lesson here endeth! :lol:
 
The vast majority of racehorses never get to gallop downhill at home because their training gallops are all on the level or uphill.

This puzzles me. Surely if they have an uphill gallop they also have a downhill gallop. As a kid long before I knew anything about racing, I lived at the mid-point of a steep hairpin bend. I used to practise running both up and round the bend as well as down and round the bend. Some people say I'm still round the bend. Surely it isn't beyond the wit of a modern trainer to run their horses down their gallops??


Some of the bigger private yards I believe do have a Derby gallop (?) But very few.

There's probably no bigger than Ballydoyle so presumably they have one?

I thought the whole idea of sending HD to Lingfield was to confirm (rather than see) that the topography wouldn't be a problem in the heat of a race, only for the plan to be thwarted by a blood disorder.

If they're still not sure, they could send him across for the trial gallops or surely there must be a down-and-round track in Ireland that would allow him to gallop there?

It seems very un-Coolemore like to send it to the Derby without being fairly sure.

Unless they really think he is just a monster who can overcome the difficulty.
 
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From what I saw of Ken Pitterson I thought he was pretty useless a paddock judge. He didn’t remotely explain why horses did or didn’t look well/fit. All he did was mention a line on the stomach. Or why HD could struggle at Epsom (because he is a tall horse with a long hind leg and consequently his balance could be thrown off especially as he tries to negotiate a downhill bend at speed on a camber). I felt he was a complete waste of time. I would do a far, far better job....:)

You know I could sit on a horse and tell you which sort of racecourse it needed to run on. And for Epsom it really does need one that is very well balanced and is able to gallop downhill as freely as uphill. The vast majority of racehorses never get to gallop downhill at home because their training gallops are all on the level or uphill. Some of the bigger private yards I believe do have a Derby gallop (?) But very few. So it can be incredibly hard for a horse to relax into his shoulders and “let go” and many racehorses gallop “on their forehand”. This means that they tend to gallop with their front end instead of engaging their back end as efficiently. For Epsom (and Brighton, to a lesser extent Goodwood) you need a really well balanced, often short coupled (that is shorter in the back) horse that finds any change in gradient easy. You can teach a horse to learn balance and this is obviously something that dressage riders would do as a matter of course. When I retrained my own horse for hunting, we have very steep hills here in Somerset and it was pretty damn scary at first. But he did learn....it was just something he was not used to.

Right this mornings lesson here endeth! :lol:
Thanks Jinny; do you have a view on the conformation of High Definition, if that is possible?
 
Vincent put one in back in the 1970s.
Galloping downhill is one thing; doing so around a bend in a crowded field is yet another.
Holding your position is a third.
As Cash famously said "the last thing you need coming down Tattenham Hill is your horse wondering where he puts his feet next "
It used be said sons of Sadlers Wells couild not win a Derby as their shoulders were too muscular for galloping downhill; then along came Galileo .
 
Irish 2000 Guineas on Saturday.

Van Gogh will either run in the guineas or the derby you'd have thought.

I don't know the chances of going for both, but I think its probably unlikely.

I could be wrong about 1 or 2 of these taking in both the guineas and derby. Macswiney and Van Gogh the two likely candidates for both races.

Final field.

Agrimony Gary Carroll
Battleground tbc
Emporio Gavin Ryan
La Barrosa William Buick
Lucky Vega Shane Foley
Mac Swiney Rory Cleary
Monaasib Chris Hayes
Poetic Flare Kevin Manning
Rebel Step Ben Coen
The Rosstafarian Colin Keane
Van Gogh tbc
Wembley tbc
 
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