The Derby Sat June 5th 2021

Think it's fair to suggest Coolmore are more interested in stacking up profits from their breeding interests than targetting specific races. Can't see they've done too badly from their current MO, either.
 
Add in the fact that all their horses have classic pedigrees, combined with fact that prizemoney for the first eight or ten will recover entry money, ensure a decent rating to resell the also rans to far east, Australian or other markets.
Remember in 2007 he ran eight in Derby; all had Group form so were entitled to run and nearly all won Group races after, picking just one year they did not win.
2009 he had second/third/fourth in a finish of short heads behind Sea The Stars.
It is infuriating but it works for them.
 
I see they're watering today. Daft.

It looks an open race and the only two angles I can see are:
1 - Impressive as BB was in his last trial all the front runners won that day at Leop and with Mac Swiney obv needing the race the form is questionable. He's too short and therefore there's a bet in it somewhere. I mean, he should not be shorter for this than Santa Barbara (classic form) is for the Oaks.
2 - I don't get the price diff between the Dante principals. Yes, High Definition should improve for the step up in trip but the same could 100% be said of Hurricane Lane, he's a Frankel out of a Shirocco mare. I think he's a bet and I'm leaning the Haggas entrant as well if he's double figures on the day, esp with 4 and maybe more places paid.
 
You can all try to be clever getting the fav beat but he's starting to look a proper certainty.
 
Slim said:
You can all try to be clever getting the fav beat but he's starting to look a proper certainty.
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A worthy favourite by most measurements but "a proper certainty" is a bit strong, in my opinion, Slim.

Getting him beat isn't about trying to be clever, at least not for me.

While I fully understand why people might be reluctant to take a shortish price a lot of those that back something else will recognise how difficult it will be to beat BB.

My own reasons for opposing him are that, firstly, his best form to date, in my opinion, isn't good enough to win an average Derby. It may well be that he is the best of a bad lot but I always think a low bar makes it easier for something to improve enough to get over it.

Secondly, I retain faith in High Definition. If it is definitely a hard call for Moore to choose between them it would be a worry, in that it might mean HD isn't as good as I hope. On the other hand, I do think if Dettori ends up riding HD he can make a huge difference to the horse because he is simply the best jockey in the world and nobody rides the Derby better. If Moore opts for HD it won't look good for BB.

Thirdly, while on breeding BB should appreciate the extra trip he wasn't running away from inferiors last time at 10f. He made his move early and opened up a big lead but I wasn't impressed by his final half-furlong. HD, on the other hand, will be motoring in the final two furlongs, assuming the track itself doesn't inconvenience him. Until he tries and fails, I'm happy to assume he acts on the track. And there is the chance BB might not act on it. The same goes for any horse yet to prove itself.

I think BB's price is very skinny but, as I say, it's all relative. If the rest are simply inferior then it's fair enough. If he's currently a 118-ish horse and good enough to win, it must be a bad race. The last time I had a Derby winner running to that kind of rating was Oath. Every winner since then has posted a rating (my own figures) of at least 120 and the average is probably around 123/124.

Any more bets I end up having will be little more than panning for value. I'm happy enough with what I have so far:

HD 12/1
Mac S 14/1 & 32x (laid off at 8.8)
One Ruler 50x
Gear Up 40 (not looking so clever)
Ayadar (cashed out for a minimal profit)

And a few longshot non-runners.

I also have HD at 7/1 in a double with Mother Earth (20s) and a treble with Santa Barbara (8s). If SB wins on Friday, I reckon I will be offered a very decent cash-out.

So it isn't so much about being clever in trying to 'get BB beat'; it's more about trying to work out what might end up being a winner and getting better odds about them.

If BB ends up winning, my main emotion will be disappointment that there was nothing better than it.
 
RPR top four have it: (forgotten how much yours vary from RPR, desert)

Mac Swiney 133
Bolshoi Ballet 131
Mohaafeth 131
Van Gogh 130

MS and VG were probably fully extended to earn theirs, whereas the other two just breezed to theirs and you have to think a there is probably a bit more there. I think it’s probably between those two, although I seem to recall O’Brien talking about VG as a Derby horse. Maybe he has the greater improvement in him, but the ground will likely be against him.
 
Thanks, barjon.

The brother told me the evening after Poetic Flare won the Guineas that in an interview with either the trainer or jockey whichever it was was asked something along the lines of "And if Mac Swiney wins the Derby..." only to be interrupted with, "When he wins.." I think that was when I took the 14/1.

Those RPRs are adjusted to 10-0 so take 14 off for the bare figures and we're talking about 119 and less. RPRs don't vary too much from mine other than in the bigger handicaps when theirs tend to be around 5lbs lower.

I don't think I have a rating for Mac Swiney's win yet as I haven't studied the race. I was waiting for the final decs.

However, I'm reasonably confident that HD will run 10lbs better than whatever his current rating is.
 
Desert Orchid said:
A worthy favourite by most measurements but "a proper certainty" is a bit strong, in my opinion, Slim.
Getting him beat isn't about trying to be clever, at least not for me.
While I fully understand why people might be reluctant to take a shortish price a lot of those that back something else will recognize how difficult it will be to beat BB.
My own reasons for opposing him are that his best form to date, in my opinion, isn't good enough to win an average Derby. It may well be that he is the best of a bad lot but I always think a low bar makes it easier for something to improve enough to get over it.
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While on breeding BB should appreciate the extra trip he wasn't running away from inferiors last time at 10f. He made his move early and opened up a big lead but I wasn't impressed by his final half-furlong. HD, on the other hand, will be motoring in the final two furlongs, assuming the track itself doesn't inconvenience him. Until he tries and fails, I'm happy to assume he acts on the track. And there is the chance BB might not act on it. The same goes for any horse yet to prove itself.
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Mac Swiney has proved subsequently that he isn’t an inferior, he may or may not have given his running against Bolshoi Ballet but one thing is for sure, he came there at a mile strong, but Bolshoi drew the sting out of him and the reason he stopped so quickly was for the effort he put in trying. He’s since been rated 121 for winning the Irish 2000 Guineas over 2 furlongs less. Your opinion of Bolshoi’s final furlong could well be under an underestimation given what he had done mid-race to, shake them off!

I can only assume that you are talking from your pocket and a wishful heart when you say how you are happy to assume, High Definition will handle the track and conversely Bolshoi won’t, with the latter having a chance not to, yet both are in the same boat. Meaning both hold equal chances of handling or not handling Epsom!

I think BB's price is very skinny but, as I say, it's all relative. If the rest are simply inferior then it's fair enough. If he's currently a 118-ish horse and good enough to win, it must be a bad race. The last time I had a Derby winner running to that kind of rating was Oath. Every winner since then has posted a rating (my own figures) of at least 120 and the average is probably around 123/124.
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The last 12 runnings of the Derby went as follows:

Sea the Stars won the 2000 Guineas so went in rated 121, came away 124.
Camelot won the 2000 Guineas so went in rated 119, came away 121
Australia 119 came away 123.
Golden Horn 118 came away 126.
Anthony Van Dyck 118 came away 118.
Pour Moi 118 came away 121.
Masar 117 came away 121.
Harzand 110 came away 123.
Wings of Eagles 109 came away 120.
Ruler of the World 109 came away 120.
Serpentine 100 came out 121.

So the rating going in is totally irrelevant, when improvement could and most likely will occur, especially when they haven’t gone over the distance before!


I retain faith in High Definition. If it is definitely a hard call for Moore to choose between them it would be a worry, in that it might mean HD isn't as good as I hope. On the other hand, I do think if Dettori ends up riding HD he can make a huge difference to the horse because he is simply the best jockey in the world and nobody rides the Derby better. If Moore opts for HD it won't look good for BB.
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Once again Heart and pocket driving your reason here DO; If Moore opts for BB it won't look good for HD either!

I honestly believe your faith in High Definition is unfounded. If he couldn’t keep up over 1m2f at York, what makes you think Epsom will be any different. Don’t say he was finishing best of all, because that’s irrelevant, the horses that were in front where it matters had used up their stamina over the top speed gallop, the same top speed gallop that stretched him in the first place. Good Jockeys have a clock, and when they know what they got under them, and use it correctly, they usually win. Seen it many a time, when the dodgy-looking just hanging on form, has been upheld in subsequent meetings.

High Definition is a Fastnet Rock (sprinter) sired Dam cross with Galileo, as of yet, none of that crossing, has won further than a mile and a quarter. This is mostly due to the Dam’s of Fastnet Rock, like him, are sprinters. High Definitions Mum, Palace barely got a mile, Palaces mum never raced, but her mother, Sonic Lady, was Champion miler in Europe.

What if High Definition’s eye-catching sprint’s past tired rivals at the backend of the season last year, were the result of staying at the back as the race stretched away in earnest, then having the required stamina to summon a sprint finish….over a mile, on bad ground against tired horses…

The downhill finish will be as good as it is bad to HD, He’ll get stretched down it, leaving too much to do, as his stamina fades on the fast ground…running past beaten horses.

If High Definition runs 10LB better than his current rating, it will be over a mile and a quarter (Coral Eclipse)…
 
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The detail you go to in order support your arguments is greatly appreciated, Maxbet, and I don't mean that to sound at all patronising.

I'd so much more happily read them than a bare statement of opinion with nothing to back it up.

Mac Swiney, I believe I mentioned some time back, is one whose Derrinstown form is best ignored but, not having run his race, his performance was inferior on the day. That's what I meant.

I always kind of expect the principals to improve again on the day. That's natural, since they've been building towards peaking then. It's then a question of how much. I expect BB to improve a bit but, as I said at the time, he got an unusually aggressive ride last time so I can't really see him finding much more than a few pounds.

HD is the opposite. AOB has already explained the ride he got at York and how it fitted in with the bigger plan.

I honestly wouldn't say it's my pocket that's driving my belief in what HD might produce on the day. It's the opposite. It's my belief in him that's dictated my financial position. I took the 12/1 last September on the morning of his win in anticipation of an impressive performance based on what I'd seen the time before. By contrast, the Derby looks more of an afterthought for BB [in my opinion].

If events go on to tell me my faith in the horse was misplaced, it's a blow I'll take on the chin and move on, and hopefully learn from it. If he goes on to run to something like 125 (which I anticipate) or even better yet ends up beaten by something that's run even better, I won't bat an eyelid. In fact, I'll be pleased because it will have done what I wanted regardless of the financial element and if there is something even better so be it. It will be good for the Derby and good for the sport.
 
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High Definition a big drifter today.

Anyone remember what the betting movements were ahead of the various Guineas?

Wasn't Battleground very weak before the late plunge that made it favourite? (OK, it got fvcked but that's another story :lol:)?


I think 'the Lads' do a bit of toying with the market in the lead-up to these races to keep everyone guessing.
 
Looks like they're toying with Bolshoi, he's heading for evens...shortest price fav for a long time.

Betting looks remarkably like HD's Blood test non run in the Lingfield trial..

I have backed Mohaafeth E/W
H's the one true stayer on pedigree
Zeyaadah for Oaks E/W double
 
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Maxbet said:
Looks like they're toying with Bolshoi, he's heading for evens...shortest price fav for a long time.

Betting looks remarkably like HD's Blood test non run in the Lingfield trial..

I have backed Mohaafeth E/W
H's the one true stayer on pedigree
Zeyaadah for Oaks E/W double
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3 years?

Saxon Warrior went off 4-5 fav in 2018
 
Maxbet said:
I honestly believe your faith in High Definition is unfounded. If he couldn’t keep up over 1m2f at York, what makes you think Epsom will be any different. Don’t say he was finishing best of all, because that’s irrelevant, the horses that were in front where it matters had used up their stamina over the top speed gallop, the same top speed gallop that stretched him in the first place. Good Jockeys have a clock, and when they know what they got under them, and use it correctly, they usually win. Seen it many a time, when the dodgy-looking just hanging on form, has been upheld in subsequent meetings.

...


If High Definition runs 10LB better than his current rating, it will be over a mile and a quarter (Coral Eclipse)…
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Simon Rowlands doesn't seem to be doubting HD at the trip:

https://www.attheraces.com/blogs/sectional-spotlight/31-May-2021/derby-and-oaks-striding
 
Maxbet said:
High Definition fell short of his OR by 5Lb's at York...Maybe he hasn't trained on:p...But 10Lb improvement (if) for fitness and the extra distance will only put him about par with Bolshoi Ballet's expected progress.

With so much guesswork it's hard to say which way they will play out...but I think a decision about where they go had already been made, the rushed run at York was, for the most part, "well let's see"....But Aiden knows he doesn't put them through full work until 2 weeks after a run, which leaves High Definition a week to get fully fit.

Of The two, stature-wise; I'd say Bolshoi Ballet will handle Epsom better and High Definition has already won twice going right-handed, so the Curragh would make more sense.
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Nice one Max, you tell em boy:whistle:
 
When considering my Derby bet I rely on three supplemental considerations to known form and performance and going stipulations 1. Has he enough tactical speed to lie in 4th or 5th, two off the rail on the entrance to the straight. 2. Is he balanced enough to make the bend without imitating the ice-skater, Lyphard. Does he have at least an 80% chance of staying 12F well.

Bolshoi Ballet it is.
 
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