The Derby

Interesting to see who Kinane will ride in the Derby. Todays race was slowly run with the 10F maiden run faster than the Derby Trial.

I don't think Mores Wells or Macarthur ran to their best form. I think Admiralofthefleet gets the nod for now.
 
Originally posted by Gamla Stan+May 13 2007, 05:38 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Gamla Stan @ May 13 2007, 05:38 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-Powerscourt@May 13 2007, 05:37 PM
I think Admiralofthefleet gets the nod for now.
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I'd agree with that. [/b][/quote]
Soldier of Fortune shortest on Betfair. And to quote Mr Segal - i`ll give up the game if that wins.
 
Originally posted by Powerscourt@May 13 2007, 05:37 PM


I don't think Mores Wells or Macarthur ran to their best form.
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I don't either, although Yellowstone could have improved for the step up, i think this also makes the form suspect
 
Originally posted by Gareth Flynn@May 13 2007, 05:45 PM
Tom Segal doesn't fancy Soldier Of Fortune? Excellent news.
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No. i messed that up. He says it every week about something, gets on my tits. Can`t remember this weeks, anyone?
 
Originally posted by Euronymous+May 13 2007, 04:46 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Euronymous @ May 13 2007, 04:46 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-Gareth Flynn@May 13 2007, 05:45 PM
Tom Segal doesn't fancy Soldier Of Fortune? Excellent news.
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No. i messed that up. He says it every week about something, gets on my tits. Can`t remember this weeks, anyone? [/b][/quote]
This weeks was if Cockney Rebel "isn't an absolutely top class miler i'll give up the game"
 
Had Archipenko and Mores Wells reverse today - as usual it's the longer priced one which gets up and the 1st or 2nd fav which lets me down :brows:

Think all my anteposts for the Oaks and the Derby are going to be NR!!
Will have to rely on the placepot again :dork:
 
From Sporting Life


O'Brien was not at Leopardstown as he was in France to saddle Poule d'Essai des Poulains winner Astronomer Royal but part-owner John Magnier was on hand to see the trial.

He said: "Mick was very happy - that puts him right in the mix.

"He might get a mile and a half. We will have to run a few of them and see what comes out best."

Of Macarthur, Magnier added: "Seamus was never happy, right from the start.
 
Originally posted by charlieD@May 13 2007, 07:24 PM

"He might get a mile and a half. We will have to run a few of them and see what comes out best."
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Normally that`d be a bad sign (imagine a similar announcement from Godolphin)
But they didn`t fancy DT last year so you never know. I have Proponent and Strategic Prince already and may add AOTF.
 
Not very encouraging comments from Magnier, but as you say DT wasn't fancied


If Archipenko went straight to Derby from this, i'd want a similar price to DT's
 
I took a bit of 230 on Yellowstone for the Derby after I spotted him putting in some decent late work in the Guineas on the far side, and I'm very pleased with that, he's an absolutely knocking each way bet as he has shown consistent if not top class form and promises to stay the trip. Very admirable horse with a good attitude.
 
Considering O'Brien had said Archipenko wasn't fully wound up after having a hold-up and taking time to fill out (as well as considering the general improvement shown by Aidan's horses from their first runs), I thought that was a good performance today.. travelled well and showed a good turn of foot, winning with something in hand.. I'd expect him to beat Yellowstone, a consistent performer himself, considerably farther should they meet again..

Mores Wells is a stayer who looks the type to do well at trips of 1m 4f+ (he would need a strong pace to have any hope in a mile and a half classic for sure).. maybe a leger type..
 
From RP website by Tony O'Hehir


THE latest renewal of the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial, a race won by three Derby winners this decade, threw up another contender in Archipenko, but just how much light was thrown on the Epsom Classic by the Ballydoyle colt's win from stablemate Yellowstone at Leopardstown on Sunday is debatable.

Bookmakers were not overly impressed by the colt's three-quarters-of-a-length win under Mick Kinane. Ladbrokes and William Hill were least taken with the performance as they cut Archipenko to 14-1 (from 50-1), while Paddy Power, Cashmans and Stan James all go 12-1 (from 50). Boylesports were more impressed, quoting 8-1 (from 33-1).

All told, the picture regarding Aidan O'Brien's Derby plans appeared to be still rather blurred following Sunday's Grade 2 event, but the win continued the trainer's form in the trials following the victories of Soldier Of Fortune in the Prix Noailles and Chester Vase, Anton Chekhov in the Prix Hocquart, Mahler at Gowran Park and Admiralofthefleet in the Dee Stakes.

In recent years Sinndar, as well as O'Brien's two Epsom Derby winners, Galileo and High Chaparral, all won the 1m2f Leopardstown event. Other subsequent Group 1 winners to win the race include Alamshar, Yeats and, most recently, Dylan Thomas.

With O'Brien at Longchamp, where Astronomer Royal struckin the Poule d'Essai des Poulains, it was left to Coolmore supremo John Magnier to do the talking regarding the Derby.

"It looks as if we will have to run a few, but plans will depend on what Aidan, Derrick Smith and Michael Tabor have to say when we all discuss the situation," said Magnier.

What does seem certain is that Duke Of Marmalade, the 2,000 Guineas fourth who was 10-1 with Ladbrokes for the Derby, will not be part of Ballydoyle's team. He has been taken out of the betting by Ladbrokes, along with Macarthur, who finished third in Sunday's race, for which he started 8-11 having been backed from evens.

Magnier said: "Duke Of Marmalade probably won't go to Epsom and will probably go for the Irish 2,000 Guineas instead."

Archipenko, whom O'Brien predicted would come on a lot for Sunday's race, hit the front just over one furlong out after Macarthur had made the running and he held on well from Yellowstone who came from the back of the five-runner field.

Kinane said: "I liked him. He travelled and quickened well and found another bit when the second horse came at him."

Magnier said of the winner: "Aidan had said that this colt wasn't fully fit yet and that there would be a good bit of improvement in him. He is by Kingmambo, but he is out of a Nijinsky mare, so he may well get a mile and a half."

Johnny Murtagh said of runner-up Yellowstone, who had finished about seven lengths behind Cockney Rebel in the Stan James 2,000 Guineas: "I was happy with him. The winner hadfirst run on him but he ran on well and might get further."

Macarthur's rider Seamus Heffernan said: "He is a very good horse but he just didn't feel right today."

O'Brien had stated prior to Sunday's race that Macarthur had been troubled by a muscle twinge and that his participation had been in doubt during the week.

Mores Wells, who had Macarthur behind in third place when winning the Group 3 Ballysax Stakes last month, finished fourth of the five runners and his trainer Kevin Prendergast said: "The ground was too quick and the pace wasn't quick enough. I'll speak to the owners and see what they want to do, but we might give Epsom a miss and wait for the Irish Derby. I think the Curragh would suit him better.
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The comments regarding Macarthur and Mores Wells confirm my suspicion that the race should be treated with a bit of caution, but i do think Archipenko is a promising and interesting prospect
 
Well the 3yo maiden run over C&D was 0.70 faster which points to it not being a truly contested affair. That's not say Archipenko can't go a Gp1 gallop when required to, but at the moment the jury's out
 
In terms of class or ability Ballydoyle dont have another three year old to match Archipenko. Horse was tubby before hand and blew after the race like a horse that will improve considerably.Just remember how much improvement these colts are making from their first run.

The one doubt is stamina, the Irish 2000 Guineas was initially the plan for him but they have decided to try him over the Derby trip.
 
Archipenko 28-1 for the Dante on Betfair.

Sure he won't run? Otherwise it's a monster price. Ditto for Yellowstone at 50-1.

I put £20 on Archipenko at 54-1 on Betfair for the Derby last week, based solely upon the good reports about him here and the jockey booking of Kinane in the Derrinstown yesterday (and of course his run last year). Suffice to say i'm very happy with this now :)
 
Originally posted by Galileo@May 14 2007, 06:28 AM
In terms of class or ability Ballydoyle dont have another three year old to match Archipenko.
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Credit to you for flagging the horse up beforehand but if the above is true it's hard to understand how Archipenko started the price he did with Macarthur an odds-on shot. At this stage based on public form you couldn't definitely put Archipenko ahead of Soldier of Fortune or Admiralofthefleet although there's clearly the possibility of him coming on for the race in a big way.

Archipenko's prospects of staying are reasonable. Kingmambo is a stronger stamina influence than is generally recognised. Since the start of 2004 his percentage of winners to runners at 7f is 10%, at 8f 15%, at 9f 16% and at 10f 14% whereas at 11f it's 26%, 12f 22%, 13f 29% and at 14f 21%. The dam's side is quite speedy, though. However, his full brother, Soar With Eagles, ran on his final outing like a horse who'd be suited by further than 10f.
 
Macarthur had the benefit of a run this season. Not only was Archipenko making his debut but he was one of the slowest to come to hand this year, as the trainer stated at the open day back a couple of months ago. There is above normal improvement to come from Archipenko imo and I would be surprised if he is not Ballydoyles number 1 for the Derby (unless perhaps if Eagle Mountain or something like that runs).

Interesting stats on Kingmambo there.
 
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