The Derby

Fair comment. If Archipenko does come on a lot for the run then he'd have a big shout at Epsom.

For all that Eagle Mountain has been campaigned like and runs like a potential middle distance horse he's far from certain to stay 12f, for me.
 
Gal, based on what we have seen so far, would be interested in your ranking of the Ballydoyle horses. Obviously, Archipenko is number one with you, who would you see as 2 and 3 for the Derby based on what we have seen so far?
 
BALLYDOYLE'S CLASSIC CONTENDERS


Horse - Most likely target

Archipenko - Derby
Yellowstone - Derby
Soldier Of Fortune - Derby
Admiralofthefleet - Derby
Mahler - Derby




Dunno, if thats AoB's most likely target list, but if so, it looks like connections don't know and it looks a run em and see approach to me
 
It's that time of the week again folks where Nick Mordin offers his opinions. It's almost like having him as member of the forum. In last weeks Weekender Nick was starting to give MacArthur the Septimus treatment.

Taken from his web site weekly report. His dismissal of Admiralofthefleet will offer hope to those with AP tickets too

ARCHIPENKO: SLOW TIME, FAST FINISH

I wish there was some easy formula that would tell me how fast a slow run race would have been run if the runners had gone a decent gallop. Unfortunately no such formula exists. So I can only report that ARCHIPENKO (24) clocked a very slow final time for the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial due to the crawl that the race was run at in the early stages.

However, having played around with the video of the race on www.youtube.com I can tell you that once the runners started sprinting for the line they were really motoring. Archipenko ran the final furlong in a blistering 11.4 seconds while the runner-up YELLOWSTONE (23) powered home in 11.1 seconds.

As the sprint to the line began the horse that looked least likely to be suited to it was Archipenko. His two stablemates, Yellowstone and Macarthur are rather racey looking individuals while Archipenko is a deep chested, strong, stocky sort who clearly wants a mile and a half.

Nonetheless, after Macarthur looked the winner entering the straight, Archipenko quickened up very rapidly to put him away as the sprint began then sustained the burst to hold off Yellowstone’s last furlong charge.

I’d be very doubtful about Yellowstone staying any further than the ten furlongs of this race. But Archipenko is another matter. Despite not having run any sort of a time I’d be rather sure he’s going to prove the best of Aiden O’Brien’s runners at Epsom.

A couple of weeks ago I asked those of you with horsey knowledge about how to paddock watch and form opinions/ comparisons etc and how effectively this can be done through TV as opposed to being at the track. The reason was because Mordin was offering opinions thus, yet resides about 3,500 miles away. I'm even more curious now to learn that he's using U Tube to draw these conclusions.

Thought I'd add hsi Chester thoughts too :D

DOES SOLDIER OF FORTUNE REALLY STAY 12 FURLONGS?

The time that SOLDIER OF FORTUNE (39) clocked to win the Chester Vase was very decent. But I’m inclined to believe that he only lasted the distance thanks to a noticeably slow early pace and the very tight turns of the track.

Soldier Of Fortune is a full brother to Heliostatic who clearly failed to stay the mile and a half in the Irish Derby last year. His dam had no less than ten siblings which raced. She herself failed to stay a mile and a half and so did all her ten siblings despite the fact that one of them was by Galileo (Soldier Of Fortune's sire) and five were by sires whose progeny's average winning distance was as long or longer than Galileo. This being so, I think Soldier Of Fortune should go for the Prix du Jockey Club rather than the Derby.

Having said that, I have to add that Soldier of Fortune did well to win this race as he was probably too far off the pace when the sprint to the line began and looked rather green when asked to go and win his race. I’ve little doubt that he’s a Group 1 horse.

ARABIAN GULF (39) very nearly stole the race by getting first run on Soldier Of Fortune. He raced like an old hand so I suspect he’s never going to run much better than this. That would make him a Group 2 horse and not a Derby winner. Certainly I didn’t feel I was watching a Group 1 horse. I believe he only got so close to the winner because he was enterprisingly ridden.



ADMIRALOFTHEFLEET NOT GOOD ENOUGH FOR DERBY

Admiralofthefleet (35) clocked a remarkably slow time to win the Dee Stakes.. His time up the homestraight was about a second slower than his stablemate Soldier Of Fortune managed in the Chester Vase too. So there’s no way you can say that his time was affected by a slow early pace. The only conclusion I can come to is that Admiralofthefleet is just not good enough for the Derby.

 
i have to say that his dismissal of AotF versus SoF on the basis of the time they ran up the straight in puzzles me. :eek: The races were run on different days!! with different variance allowances. FWIW, I make it 0.96 seconds per mile different. Also AotF was fast by +0.68 to std and SoF +0.46, to some extent the first named might expect to be finishing slightly slower if his had been the truer run race? I'd be curious as to how accurately he could hand time this off U tube anyway.
 
Yes, it's nice for those of us with money on Admiralofthefleet to see his Epsom chance dismissed by Mordin. I thought his time at Chester was a decent one, to be honest.

It's also encouraging to see the horse renamed by Anne Marie Duff in this week's Irish Field: "Admirableofthefleet" has a nice ring to it. She's obviously a fan.
 
Soldier Of Fortune has run the two fastest trials in my calcs. But not by much - there's been no Dylan Thomas in last year's Derrinstown... at least not yet. AotF's time in the Royal Lodge is still better. Authorized's RP Trophy is better again - but is he dependent on cut in the ground? The Dante will be fascinating as ever. Raincoat's time in the Epsom trial was very decent, and I expect him and Adagio to keep Authorized honest.
 
Of those likely to line up Gareth SoF tops my ratings, and AotF's fast time was likewise, recorded as 2yo. Mind you I've still got a quicker French one, (which I'm dubious about) tucked away
 
Classic Port - Maison Laffiete, 11 April

Reason Traoui Land - 4.5F, 2yo Mdn. = -3.40
Classic Port - 8F, 3yo, Listed race? = +0.60
Tanguista - 8F, 3yo Fillies equivilant to above = -1.70
US Ranger - 7F, 3yo listed. Std time
Magic America - 7F, 3yo listed = -2.50
Buenos Aries - 10F, 3yo 0-85? = -5.20
Ous Kai Mango 10F, 3yo Claimer = -4.80
Courteil - 7F, 0-70? =-3.60

Races 1, 6 & 7 omitted from variance

I've awarded it a Listed race but think it's more likely to be a maiden in reality as a 7F listed race was already on the card. In any case the higher par should slow the horse down, so I've erred on the side of caution at least. I was hoping that US Ranger and Magic America might hold the form down, but in truth suspect the race was the only truly run affair on a day of otherwise moderate ones. Mind you, the trainer and connections give cause for hope. I've tried to use prize money to allocate the handicap pars, where they aren't specified
 
Classic Port's race was a "B" race - pretty much analagous to a Conditions race over here. Buenos Aires' race was closer to a 0-100 handicap, the Claimer was around the same as a 0-85 Classified race, and the last race was also around a 0-85 job (for apprentices) going by my translations, which generally seem to work pretty well.
 
Gal, based on what we have seen so far, would be interested in your ranking of the Ballydoyle horses
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For what its worth, I doubt Duke Of Marmalade, Eagle Mountain, Mount Nelson or Macarthur will turn up at Epsom. Archipenko should be their number one.....Soldier Of Fortune would be my second preference ahead of the likes Yellowstone and Admiralofthefleet. But if Archipenko is not good enough or doesnt stay I would be surprised (assuming its a decent quality Derby) if the others were good enough.
 
Considering the result of the French 2000, it would appear to be somewhat impossible to predict which Ballydoyle horse will come out on top in any given race.
 
Originally posted by Gareth Flynn@May 15 2007, 11:13 PM
Classic Port's race was a "B" race - pretty much analagous to a Conditions race over here. Buenos Aires' race was closer to a 0-100 handicap, the Claimer was around the same as a 0-85 Classified race, and the last race was also around a 0-85 job (for apprentices) going by my translations, which generally seem to work pretty well.
Click to expand...
That should work out then, as my CP table has 2.6 for both Listed and Conditions races so it doesn't really matter which you if the figure's the same, and with the claimer and Buenos Aries not contributing to variance anyway, the only one I'll have slightly speeded up is the last, and even that won't be massively significant with 4 other races diluting its impact on the calculation, which was still reasonably close anyway. My suspicion is that I've stumbled on one of those where one truly run race has been flattered above its true level by the presence of 7 similarly false ones
 
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