The Derby

Originally posted by Ardross@May 17 2007, 08:20 PM
First is of course how members of the aristocracy pronounce fast :shy:
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In the accent of which language????!! :P

Jalil does look like a nice horse to be fair but he still looks big and weak - he's certainly a pretty large animal.
 
Originally posted by BrianH@May 18 2007, 05:44 PM
Some may be interested in my handicapper friend's current assessment of the race:

The position at the moment:


Name:Epsom Derby Group 1 Date: 02/06/2007
Course: Epsom
Distance: 12.00 Ground: Good

1 AUTHORIZED 71
2 ADMIRALOFTHEFLEET 67
3 SOLDIER OF FORTUNE 67
4 AQALEEM 65
5 ARCHIPENKO 64
6 SALFORD MILL 63
7 REGIME 63
8 ARABIAN GULF 63 hdw
9 RAINCOAT 63
10 YELLOWSTONE 62
11 STRATEGIC PRINCE 61 hdw

last year: Sir Percy (72)
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Remember Septimus won last years Dante by 8 lengths running to an identical rating as Authorized.
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Is he prepared to give us the figures for the other previous winners?

Edit: Had to leave the house sharprish and left this request abruptly...

What I meant was, how did Sir Percy figure relative to the previous Derby winners and presumably his 72 was achieved in the Derby itself? If not, what was his figure for the Derby?

I'm always interested in other people's figures to see how they compare with my own. You'll remember I was just as quick to come on here and temper enthusiasm for the generally-perceived quality of the 2006 Derby as I was to hail Dutch Art better than Cockney Rebel (by some way). I got the first one right and time will show whether I got the second one right too or to what extent I got it wrong.

Presumably, too, the above will be expected to improve a bit at Epsom, therefore there's every chance Sir Percy's mark will be beaten?

Re 'hdw', presumably the comment was taken from the form book comments? If so, it means 'has done well' - made significant physical improvement since last seen.
 
Originally posted by Desert Orchid@May 18 2007, 08:05 PM
Re 'hdw', presumably the comment was taken from the form book comments? If so, it means 'has done well' - made significant physical improvement since last seen.
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That's it
 
Interesting. The guy who does the Racecourse notes in the Weekender - Ken Patterson - said after the 2000G that Strategic Prince hadn`t grown at all over the winter whereas the trainer has said the animal put on 60kg.
 
Given my very high opinion of the far-side Guineas runners, I cannot see Archipenko beaten in the Derby, on a line through Yellowstone.

If my figures are right, Archipenko is in the same class as High Chaparral and if he's beaten the winner will need to be even better.

That makes the 10/1 currently on offer extremely interesting. I'd be happy to back it at half those odds [but I won't while the 10s & 9s are still available, before people start offering me 4s] as I reckon I'd be getting good value.
 
Originally posted by Gareth Flynn@May 18 2007, 01:30 PM
Good on Sheikh Mo.
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Hear hear. I posted only a few days ago saying how sorry I was to see the Godolphin horses running so badly as I feel they are a very sporting operation, unlike some we might mention...

They also know they have a more than able deputy in McEvoy should any of their Derby entries suddenly come good - a bit unlikely at this stage [I'm assuming KMcE has not been booked elsewhere!]
 
From the Racingpost today:

James Willoughby's verdict on Authorized

“From a trading perspective, there is no doubt that 6-4 Authorized is a bargain. He simply must be a fair bit shorter on the day, and this is a great chance to get him in the green.

From a purely mathematical point of view, it is harder to be confident.
Every Derby sees its share of well-bred middle-distance colts thrive for running over their ideal distance.

I am not yet ready to believe that Authorized is a true odds-on shot against the type of opposition he will face at Epsom. “



Graham Dench's verdict

“I'm not suggesting for one minute that the odds ought to be any bigger, for he was hugely impressive in what was by far the strongest trial and worthy opponents are in short supply, although I expect at least one of the Aidan O'Brien colts will run a very big race. On form he's much the best horse in the race, and barring accidents I think he'll win, but ante-post betting at those sort of odds doesn't appeal to me. Too much can go wrong, even in a fortnight, and he surely won't be much worse than evens on the day.”

Paul Kealy, betting editor

IT doesn't really matter whether you think Authorized is value at 6-4 now – he only has to stay alive to be a good deal shorter in two weeks' time, which is perfect if you like to trade. Let's face it, the horse has the best form this season, is favourite, and Flat racing's only true star, housewives' choice Frankie Dettori, is on board chasing his first Derby victory. Which national newspaper is not going to ramp that up to the hilt on June 2? I'll be staggered if he is not odds-on. I also think he'll win and may not even need an improved performance to do so, because the rest do not look a verygood bunch.


Tom Segal, Pricewise

As the chairman of the Peter Chapple-Hyam fan club I would like nothing more than to see Authorized romp away with the Derby and, if truth be told, I think he'll win the race by half the length of the straight. The only horse that I could see causing him any slight concern would be Strategic Prince but he's far from certain to stay and wouldn't appear to have Authorized's brilliance, so I have to think that 6-4 is a pretty decent price at present.
The track won't be a problem, the ground will be heavily watered and has no chance of being firm and he's bound to improve for the Dante run, so instead of making up reasons why he can't win or hoping one of the Ballydoyle horses is going to improve about 20lb,take the 6-4 if you're that way inclined because I think he'll be closer to even money on the day.
 
If Authorized wins by half the length of the straight, I reckon I'll give up.

You can drive a double-decker bus through both the Dante form and the RPTrophy form. The ones immediately behind all had ORs under the 100 mark and the main opposition failed to run to form (Adagio at York and Eagle Mountain at Newbury).

Trust me, Archipenko is a good thing.
 
Originally posted by Desert Orchid@May 20 2007, 10:51 AM


You can drive a double-decker bus through both the Dante form and the RPTrophy form.
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Agree DO, the Derby is more competitive than the market is making it
 
Interesting. It`s always easy to get swept up in the hype of a short priced Derby favourite - not so much in backing the animal but more in giving up on finding alternatives.
 
I didnt have a serious antepost bet in any of the classics this year until Archipenko a few weeks ago...after checking a few things (including some breeding advice from a few on here) I have backed him from 100/1 down on Betfair.
 
Originally posted by Desert Orchid@May 18 2007, 08:05 PM
Is he prepared to give us the figures for the other previous winners?

What I meant was, how did Sir Percy figure relative to the previous Derby winners and presumably his 72 was achieved in the Derby itself? If not, what was his figure for the Derby?
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Over the last decade, on his scale, 72 to 77. So you'll see that Sir Percy's Derby rating is the lowest.
 
I wasn't aware Authorized was so short until I read the articles posted above :what:

I spent a little time earlier today doing some of the form and I still can't get Authorized anywhere near such short odds. Nor can I understand why Salford Mill is less than 20/1 shrug::

The figures so far of those quoted in betting on p3 of yesterday's RP:

(Price first)
6/4 Authorized 118
8/1 Salford Mill 106
10s Archipenko 123++
12s Aqaleem 113
14s Soldier Of Fortune 111+
16s Admiralofthefleet 121
16s Eagle Mountain 117+
16s Strategic Prince 126t

Obviously the very high figures for Archipenko (via Yellowstone) and Strategic Prince revolve around my view of the far side runners in the 2000G. Even stripping those two out as mistakes puts O'Brien's Admiralofthefleet clear top and gives the favourite plenty to do.

I'd love to see Steve M's dosage figures and thoughts for these and I'm sure once I look at others that are at longer odds I'll find a few with seemingly better chances than the likes of Salford Mill.

Brian, have you laid Aqaleem for a profit?
 
Originally posted by Desert Orchid@May 20 2007, 05:44 PM
Brian, have you laid Aqaleem for a profit?
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No, I rarely do such things except occasionally in the final round of golf tournaments. I fully understand the logic that says "a bet is not a good bet until it's hedged" but if you look at Betfair there is £120 available for me to take if I wanted to at an average price of about 13.6. The bet I've had on Aqaleem - which I placed on the morning f the Lingfield trial, a race for which I backed him also - is £6,000 to £90. I have to be careful in what I say as there are always people who like to say that I'm being lairy (which is not one of my faults) but quite honestly it's a small bet for me and I just can't get excited about, say, laying £2,600 to £200 and for the sake of winning £110 (less commission) on the combination of backing and laying reducing my possible profit by 43%+.
 
£9000 to £300 is a far prettier site than £6000 to £90 (assuming 14s is available)


Laying for a profit goes against a true gambler`s law of nature. I did it once on Sulamani in the Juddmonte and felt dirty afterwards.
 
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