The Derby

Galileo said:
You are insulted by it? Get a grip....it is called a difference of opinion and the formbook is there to be interpreted not blindly followed. My reading of the Guineas has been said before - the two RPT horses ran pretty well in a race that did not show them in the best light. You see it in a different light which is fair enough.
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On this forum, if a horse runs poorly and he is from Ballydoyle/someone has an ante post bet on..
1. Ballydoyle horse runs bad, he'll come on for the run - he's never not what we thought he was
2. If someone has an antepost bet on, and the form ISN'T working out, we just say the opposite.
 
And you would be the very opposite....a defeat and you right them off as quickly as possible. My antepost interest in SNA is minimal at decent prices.

Hamm said:
On this forum, if a horse runs poorly and he is from Ballydoyle/someone has an ante post bet on..
1. Ballydoyle horse runs bad, he'll come on for the run - he's never not what we thought he was
2. If someone has an antepost bet on, and the form ISN'T working out, we just say the opposite.
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Read my post again - I have not written anyone off. What I said was the RPT form is not working out - the first 3 have run in one significant race each and all were unplaced - I also said of course SNA can still win the Derby but using the logic of the RPT form working out as the reason for this is crazy.
 
If the RPT form is not working out, but you still say the horse can win the Derby - what are you basing that on?

Hamm said:
Read my post again - I have not written anyone off. What I said was the RPT form is not working out - the first 3 have run in one significant race each and all were unplaced - I also said of course SNA can still win the Derby but using the logic of the RPT form working out as the reason for this is crazy.
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It's an awful year for one.

If he improved from 2-3 on the horse we saw in the RPT of course he'd have a really good chance. Like Sheikh has said (better put), it wasn't just the pace of the 2000 Guineas that cost him, he just didn't look the same horse, and you couldn't call it a good Derby trial.

Any horse can run below form once though.

People have been much too quick to blame the pace paraphrasing O'Brien yet no one seemed bothered by the slow pace in the RPT when he blitzed the field.

Cape Blanco is much their best chance, in my opinion.
 
I am not sure how we can call it an awful year before the race has been even run - I am sure (like the Guineas) it will throw up a few top class horses.

Slow pace over a mile with an ease in the ground at two is completely different to slow pace over a mile on fast ground at three - pace would make a massive difference.
 
A horse that wins the RPT is unlikely to be seen at his best in a steadily run Guineas on good ground.I wouldn't have a strong opinion about SNA but writing him off or laying him at this stage is madness.
 
"Murtagh wins Derby on Ballydoyle horse shocker!"

Given that Murtagh still seems to be firmly siding with SNA, I don't see there really is any value in trying to be clever and fielding against him. Sure, he may be wrong, but given the lack of disparity in prices, any value there is in the AOB horses has to be in mugishly following Murtagh blindly regardless of your interpretation of the form.
 
If there were one or two other contenders with stronger profiles, then he would definately be one to lay lots. But Hamms point is probably that compared with most years, there are more doubts about and in and out form shown by the leading contenders than usual at this stage. Maybe it just feels that way
 
It is a long time ago - but note that St Nicholas Abbey shares a similar profile to the last saint to win the Derby - St Paddy in 1960.

St.Paddy won the Royal Lodge at 2 easily and although a Derby type was fancied for the Guineas and ran on to be sixth before winning the Derby and Leger.

He still looks much the most likely Derby winner to me .

PS Admittedly he did win the Dante in between !
 
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LUKE said:
A horse that wins the RPT is unlikely to be seen at his best in a steadily run Guineas on good ground.I wouldn't have a strong opinion about SNA but writing him off or laying him at this stage is madness.
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I haven't written him off nor wouldn't think of laying him.

He was the shortest Guineas favourite in years, won a slow RPT (which favoured the speedier types) so I don't buy the easy excuses for his Guineas run.
 
When it comes to the betting market and Ballydoyles runners in the Derby the market gets it wrong more than it gets it right.
The Great Gatsy 20-1 beat stable No1 Brian Boru 9-2
Dylan Thomas beaten a short head 25-1
Washington Irvine beat King of Rome( stable jockey on )
High Chapparel beat Hawk Wing( stable jockey on )
FAG beat RVW( stable jockey on )
 
Surely the easy excuse for SNA is that he was a middle distance horse running in the Guineas due to Coolmore feeling the need to fall for the hype that he was the next STS .

There probably won't be another STS for 40 years !
 
In my opinion St Nic is the same horse as he was in the RPT last year i.e. I don't think he has grown much or necessarily improved. His Dam's family have a history of precocity. If he had improved he would have finished further ahead of Elusive Pimpernel in the guineas because in pace terms the races were run similarly (Unless of course EP has improved past him which is more than likely). The ground and track are the only key difference between the two races. His stablemates seem the biggest challengers so you would think they know but Murtagh got it wrong last year and to be honest I don't think he's quite the judge Fallon was.

Something will finish in the first three at a massive price this year I reckon.
 
We were delighted with Cape Blanco's win in the Dante at York yesterday. He travelled very easily throughout the race and quickened up well when Johnny asked him. Unfortunately he knocked his heel again in the race and was very sore on it, however he walked out this morning and seems much more comfortable.
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Thanks Galileo, i was wondering as to his wellbeing, i will still wait until the day before putting more money on to Cape Blanco . As long as SNA makes it to the race Cape Blancos price should not shorten any further.
 
Sheikh said:
I was thinking this year might be a bit like this one. High Chap being Cape B.
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I think Kinane would have liked to have switched horses on the day, given the conditions.

Even given the past "getting it wrong" history, you have to respect that the stable jockey has a lot more to base his selection on than the viewing public and a couple of boo-boo's isn't that statistically relevant.
 
Ardross said:
Why did he not let the BHA look at the horse ? I think they should throw the book at him .
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He did allow them to view the horse and to trot him up - but he did not allow them to trot the horse for a second time after they had iced him down and put a poltice on the horse.

As for Cape Blanco being the High Chaparral - on pedigree CB is more of the Hawk Wing.
 
Ardross said:
What about refusing to let them interview the stable lad ?
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These are the people who told a ch 4 producer to take his hands out of his pockets when he was talking to them.The arrogance of them -are they going to take better care of the horse then the most successful equine organisation in the world.
 
milo said:
When it comes to the betting market and Ballydoyles runners in the Derby the market gets it wrong more than it gets it right.
The Great Gatsy 20-1 beat stable No1 Brian Boru 9-2
Dylan Thomas beaten a short head 25-1
Washington Irvine beat King of Rome( stable jockey on )
High Chapparel beat Hawk Wing( stable jockey on )
FAG beat RVW( stable jockey on )
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Brian Boru eventually proved the better horse, turning the form around at the Curragh and eventually winning the Leger. Just didn't act at Epsom.
Horatio Nelso broke down in DT's year.
King Of Rome was 16/1 in his year - hardly that well fancied. (Frozen Fire went off at the same price and then won the Irish Derby.)
Hawk Wing was never going to win the Derby. The stable jockey opted for it for much the same reason as the jockey opted for RVW last year - they knew it was the fastest horse and hoped it might stay well enough to win.

I hardly think SNA falls into the same category as RVW or HW - speed horses attempting the Derby trip.

I can accept that SNA might not have improved, in which case the race looks not only very open, it also looks pretty substandard.
 
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