The Derby

SteveM said:
"race course monkey"?? The Guineas was a perfectly good trial for the Derby. Like I said earlier SNA suffered from the high expectations of him at the wrong trip. I don't see why he shouldn't win the Derby well. They fancy him a lot more than the Dante winner and without SNA its difficult to see who would beat Cape Blanco.
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I know they reckon he's more talented Steve but I did n't like the way he ran in the Guineas all trip and pace issues aside, so from that perspective Murtaghs comment interests me.
 
Galileo said:
You know what I mean - it is historically one of the strongest of Derby trials - and Ballydoyle have won both.
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Sorry if I came across wrong - I just meant to say I don't think the Derrinstown was worth anything this year. It's been a few seasons too since it thew up a winner. I wonder if Cape Blanco is a sign Ballydoyle horses are coming to themselves/ready to do themselves justice (I'm not being sarcastic btw :))
 
Ignore Murtagh - he kept with Rip as a Derby horse last year which hardly shows infallible judgement.
 
With Cape Blanco lame after the race, and doubtfull stayer , Workforce needing softer and not sure to be suited by the course and Jaan Vermer not seen so far, St Nicholas Bay looks the most likely winner for me so far.
 
Sheikh said:
I know they reckon he's more talented Steve but I did n't like the way he ran in the Guineas all trip and pace issues aside, so from that perspective Murtaghs comment interests me.
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He was only beaten 3½ lengths and the way the race was run (or so we're told) wouldn't have been ideal for a middle distance horse. I see nothing wrong with his Guineas run and given that he was forced into the race a bit before he was ready, actually everything right about it.
 
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sunybay said:
With Cape Blanco lame after the race, and doubtfull stayer , Workforce needing softer and not sure to be suited by the course and Jaan Vermer not seen so far, St Nicholas Bay looks the most likely winner for me so far.
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I'd agree. Apart from the bit about CB being a doubtful stayer. He'll stay well and also has a pleasing amount of speed.
 
Lame or not, St Nic would be by some way their number 1 in my book.

sunybay said:
With Cape Blanco lame after the race, and doubtfull stayer , Workforce needing softer and not sure to be suited by the course and Jaan Vermer not seen so far, St Nicholas Bay looks the most likely winner for me so far.
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sunybay said:
With Cape Blanco lame after the race, and doubtfull stayer , .
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A doubtful stayer ! Sure the dam was a sprinter but his half bro by Mukaddamah got up to 13f at Grp 1 level and he is not an influence for stamina. Cape Blanco only got going in the last furlong.
 
Sheikh said:
A doubtful stayer ! Sure the dam was a sprinter but his half bro by Mukaddamah got up to 13f at Grp 1 level and he is not an influence for stamina. Cape Blanco only got going in the last furlong.
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11f? A staying on 11f, though!
 
I must be the only one who likes Midas Touch then, Cape Blanco looked very impressive today, just worry about the possible injury setback.
 
Both Midas Touch and Cape Blanco impressed me, certainly more so than the Chester or Lingfield winners, but St Nicholas Abbey seems still to be the stable no 1.
 
SNA was their No 1 for the Guineas and beat Fencing Master by a neck, i remain to be convinced with SNA on ground faster than good.
 
I haven't seen anything so far that strikes me as a potential Derby winner so I'm happy with the bet I struck about SNA after the Guineas. The RPT form remains the standout and if he can get anywhere near it he'll win.

I have to confess I have Celtic Swing in the back of my mind: so impressive at two and with so much apparently to offer at three but didn't quite hack it in spite of winning the French Derby.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I haven't seen anything so far that strikes me as a potential Derby winner so I'm happy with the bet I struck about SNA after the Guineas. The RPT form remains the standout and if he can get anywhere near it he'll win.
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That's basically the position i'm in. Although the double I have him in with Special Duty means I can lay off a slice now as he's contracted a fair bit on Betfair.
 
I put this up a while ago - I think the Midas Touch, Cape Blanco and SNA will all turn up on the day now. But I think SNA is much the likiest winner.


Galileo said:
I think Midas Touch and Cape Blanco are the interesting ones in the yard outside of St Nicholas and Jan Vermeer (who I think will end up in the French races).
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You can guess and understand the reasoning behind it - but it is really not on. Interesting to see what the stewards do.

Aidan O'Brien was referred to the British Horseracing Authority after reportedly refusing to allow raceday officials to examine Cape Blanco following his win in the totesport Dante Stakes at York.


The Ballydoyle trainer watched from County Tipperary as Cape Blanco galloped to second-favouritism for the Investec Derby, after which rumours circulated about his well-being.

Television pictures appeared to show the colt being lame and stiff, but representatives from Ballydoyle and Coolmore insisted the horse was fine.

In an attempt to settle the matter, stipendiary steward, Robert Earnshaw, and BHA vet, Lynn Hillyer, both spoke to O'Brien by phone but he was said to have refused for the winner to be examined and declined an invitation for his travelling head lad, Pat Keating, to meet with the stewards.

Earnshaw said: 'Our vet is down at the stables but Mr O'Brien has refused to have the horses trotted up in front of the vet.

'The lad has loaded the horse up and is heading for the airport.
'Mr O'Brien also refused a request for the stable lad to be interviewed by the stewards so the matter has been referred to the British Horseracing Authority under Rule B 83, which states that persons must comply with any instruction given by stewards at a race meeting.'
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Desert Orchid said:
I haven't seen anything so far that strikes me as a potential Derby winner so I'm happy with the bet I struck about SNA after the Guineas. The RPT form remains the standout and if he can get anywhere near it he'll win.

I have to confess I have Celtic Swing in the back of my mind: so impressive at two and with so much apparently to offer at three but didn't quite hack it in spite of winning the French Derby.
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Re CS: obviously he disappointed in the Guineas but wasn't his only other run at 3 in the Irish Derby where he was injured? Might have seen him to better effect if that hadn't happened.
 
They could say they 'knew' the horse had just cramped up in a leg, but even if it had, you wouldn't load it up in that condition. There's no point in snubbing the BHA officials - it just looks dodgy in the end. I suppose there'll be a fine to pay, but it's not a very attractive attitude. The vet's well within his/her rights to want to check over a horse, any horse, which doesn't appear to be sound following a race. It's primarily in the interest of the horse's welfare (especially with further long travel time and stress ahead of it).
 
imagine said:
Re CS: obviously he disappointed in the Guineas but wasn't his only other run at 3 in the Irish Derby where he was injured? Might have seen him to better effect if that hadn't happened.
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I don't think he did disappoint in the Guineas. He'd have won an ordinary renewal and he did win the Prix du Jockey Club.
 
What would the racecourse vet/stewards do about a horse that was stiff/slightly lame anyway Kri? Not a lot - they'd announce their observations, then it would be loaded up and taken home to see how it developed. It's not exactly uncommon for horses to come back from runs stiff and/or lame. I think the stewards are being a mite heavy handed in this case.
 
The RPT form remains the standout
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But form of the race overall isnt looking so great now? Co Cut was well back in field of course but hard to believe that was real running with Hanson d in front for one. The leading three didnt do much in guineas of course. Other than that?

I wouldnt be at all suprised if todays winner suprises connections again
 
clivex said:
But form of the race overall isnt looking so great now? Co Cut was well back in field of course but hard to believe that was real running with Hanson d in front for one. The leading three didnt do much in guineas of course. Other than that?
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Elusive Pimpernel ran a very good race in the Guineas from what turned out not to be a great draw.
It doesn't matter about the Godolphin animal as they seem pretty good at ruining them at the moment and SNA ran a great trial for the Derby. Can't see much wrong myself.
 
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