My last word on Rab Havlin's ride.
It's simple as ABC...You have enough fuel in your car to take you exactly 3 miles. You get a rush of blood to the head and put your foot to the floor for 1 mile..........what happen? :- something like 300 yds from home you run out of petrol......The RP SL ATR RTV not one say he was caught napping. He may have expected more than the horse had in reserve but any rider will tell you that happens to anyone who's ridden a piece of work let alone in a race
In theory yes, but you're bending the theory a wee bit. The equivalent of what you're saying would have been for Havlin to ask AF to sprint for the first four furlongs and obviously would then have stopped to a walk. If he put the foot to the floor for the middle third he'd have been slowing down dramatically from the four pole. Watch the race again, Tanlic - I did a few times this morning - and watch where COT was when Moore started his move (*more on that shortly) when he was four or five lengths behind AF. Watch Havlin ask AF for his effort AFTER COT has taken two lengths out of him.
Theoretically, you are absolutely right. Havlin did kick at a time when you'd have wanted him to, relative to the distance of the race, but he wasn't riding against the clock. Take COT out of the equation and we'd have been hailing the ride as an excellent one. I have no issue with that.
I had no financial interest on AF but watching the race live I was thinking, "Havlin, can you not see COT flying through on the inside?" and assumed he didn't because of the other horses inside him that he knew he had stone cold.
As I said after the race, if he'd made his move half a furlong earlier and kicked for everything he'd have gone pretty much with COT for about two furlongs before the effort started to peter out. COT would have won regardless; I've never argued otherwise. But that earlier kick would have gained him ground and momentum on the downhill part of the track and would have offset to an extent the idea of 'running out of petrol'. I reckon he'd have run COT to about a length* but would have been further clear of the third than he was. That's what I've been getting at, maybe not expressing it clearly, perhaps.
The comment in red above about RH being caught napping was copied and pasted from the RP analysis in today's website article.
*
Now for the controversial bit...
I've made myself quite unpopular on here for periodically being critical of Ryan Moore and I probably don't balance it out enough by praising him when he's brilliant, as he was on Luxembourg when I was counting my money at the top of the hill seeing the 15s furlongs he was dictating.
But, for me, COT's brilliance dug him out of a self-made hole yesterday.
For as long as I can remember, I've wanted whoever rides something I've backed in the Derby or Oaks to be in the kind of position that Piggott, and then Dettori, habitually took, ie just off the pace and just off the fence, allowing for a par pace. Moore seldom gets this right but has been riding superstars so their superiority has allowed them to win regardless.
Yesterday, maybe COT couldn't go the early pace. The stablemate's fractions saw him run a final section of 100% so he didn't overdo things. Maybe Moore felt obliged to drop him back early on account of his draw. But, for me, he was a lot further back than I was happy with, and for the first six furlongs I wondered if COT was going to flop again. COT actually lost ground - Moore's fault, imo - at the top of the hill and ended up with loads to do. Then Moore switched him inside again, asked the question and the horse started to fly. He started his run a good five lengths adrift of AF and had gone two lengths in front before Havlin reacted but he had the horse todo that.
Maybe he knew all along that his race position wouldn't have mattered because the horse is so good. That's why I said earlier I reckon the next time we see COT he'll run 10lbs better. He'll probably need to get closer to that to beat his elders should he go for the King George or Arc, assuming something among the older horses has something close to 130 in its locker. Timeform has Auguste Rodin on 129 but they tend to be about 5lbs higher than ORs. If RPRs are going 125 for COT there's a chance TF will go 130 so maybe he won't need to improve any after all.
All just one person's opinion, though.
