The Epsom Derby

Yes, as I said pretty much in the wake of the race on Saturday, I think COT is lot better than we saw on the day. Probably further back early than ideal, perhaps due to the draw, to an extent shuffled back a few lengths approaching the turn and five lengths off AF straightening for home then, whoooosh. One thing I didn't see at the time or on the replay (so I need to watch it again) was the change of lead in the last half furlong which Moore said made the horse find another gear, hence he couldn't pull him up. Moore's quote reminded me of the line in the Seabiscuit film when Red tells Wolf to get the horse to change his lead and he'll give him a whole new gear.

COT on the day probably didn't need to be any better than he was as a 2yo but I do think he's got another 10lbs on that performance when he needs it.
 
High Chapperal beat Hawk Wink, with Dubai World Cup winner Moon Ballad 12 lengths back in 3rd. Can't see this years renewal working out anything like that.
Having said that. It's difficult to see what beats COT this season, wherever he goes.
 
Desert Orchid said:
COT 124 (no change from before)

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First of all a lot how horses are rated about selling racing

When I saw this the other day I looked back to Sea the Stars and Frankel as I reckon the handicapper does the same.

When Sea the Stars won the Derby he was given 124. So does the 124 at this stage seem fair?

However Frankel was given 130 for his Guineas win

In June he ran the worst race of his life when all out to beat the 115 rated Zoffany but because he had the German 2000 Guineas behind allowed him to stay on a debatable 130.

I think it's far too early to judge just how good COT is.
 
I suppose it all boils down to interpretation. Sectionals might have fleshed out the bare result at Ascot. Frankel had been six lengths clear a furlong out. Had he gone too early? Zoffany wasn't a bad animal and Excelebration, 4L second to F in the Greenham and then a 7L winner of the German Guineas, was back in fourth with subsequent July Cup winner Dream Ahead in there too. Not bad form when you think about it.
 
Jockey cam evidence of Derby shows COT taking off into distance, passing rivals like they were trees.
Timeform have given him 127p , making him their top 3 yo for now.
Thinking about a possible Saratoga run, they will need to consider all the work they have taken to get COT relaxed in stalls and then reconfigure his behaviour for the starting bell, the burst from the gate and straight into stride.
Memories of Hold That Tiger being left in stalls in Breeders Cup Juvenile still linger .
Apparently he had gotten heated up in stalls his Curragh run previously, making a noise during his race and showing respiratory distress after.
He won Jean Luc Legadere with k Fallon up, dwelling in stalls before pulverising his field prior to his BC run.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Exactly why form is more important than time, something I've argued for years and even had an article to that effect printed in the Update (forerunner to the Weekender, for the young 'uns on here).

I think it reinforces the value of sectional timing, though, in the sense that they highlight horses' maximum speeds in given scenarios.

COT appeared to show a blistering turn of foot but Luxembourg, because he had run slower for longer beforehand, ran faster over the same final five furlongs of the same mile and a half.

I can't remember the guy's name at the moment but the trainer of Top Cees who also trained (I think) the Cambridgeshire winner, said if he had a horse that could run two furlongs in 22 seconds or less he knew he could win certain races with it. (Or words to that effect.) And he was referring to handicappers.
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If COT and Luxemburg were in the same race; COT would have carried 13Lb's less for weight for age!
 
Where does COT go next? The boys as Aiden calls them have decided dirt is out of the question.

They could win the Derby with either but only the Eclipse looks home and dry for COT
 
If your Derby winner didn't win the 2,000 Guineas you need that 1m2f Group 1 to avoid ending up with a NH sire on your hands nowadays.

Less likely when your Derby winner won a 7f Group 1 at two, but the Eclipse Stakes possibly beckons, or the International Stakes at York, where Australia was taken in preference to the 1m4f King George at Ascot.
 
Tanlic said:
First of all a lot how horses are rated about selling racing

When I saw this the other day I looked back to Sea the Stars and Frankel as I reckon the handicapper does the same.

When Sea the Stars won the Derby he was given 124. So does the 124 at this stage seem fair?

However Frankel was given 130 for his Guineas win

In June he ran the worst race of his life when all out to beat the 115 rated Zoffany but because he had the German 2000 Guineas behind allowed him to stay on a debatable 130.

I think it's far too early to judge just how good COT is.
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Frankel ran a monster performance in the Guineas. The obvious fear would be a big drop off next time out.
Given how the race was run in the SJP then that was never going to see him in the best light.
All ifs and buts but he could have just cruised in behind and won on the snaff when asked to settle it when straightening up.

Still, no mugs behind on a bad day!!
 
I’ll be surprised if the Irish Champions Stakes at Leopardstown is not in his schedule. The best 10f race in Europe.

After that I’d go for the Arc, the best flat race of them all.
 
My guess is irish Derby, juddmonte,arc then whichever breeders Cup race he goes for which depends on a rodin and maybe los angeles who looks tailor made for a strongly run turf . Los Angeles to the grand prix de paris then St leger. Luxembourg going to the King George with presumably a rodin. Cot is the main horse for breeding purposes so all will work around him. Love to see cot going for the leger. I know it won't happen but the way he wouldn't pull up in the Derby was amazing.
 
Plenty 2/1 going around for the Eclipse exception Paddy Power 6/4 with a max liability of a grand according to my brother.
Not surprising it's a wonder anyone bets with them.

2/1 seems huge to me as I don't rate Passenger and even White Birch will need to sprout wings to beat him
 
Tanlic said:
2/1 seems huge to me as I don't rate Passenger and even White Birch will need to sprout wings to beat him
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Maybe have another wee look at Passenger's form? I rate it highly (took 7s for the POW a while back) but wouldn't necessarily expect it to beat a peak form COT now that it's done its Lazarus impression.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Maybe have another wee look at Passenger's form? I rate it highly (took 7s for the POW a while back) but wouldn't necessarily expect it to beat a peak form COT now that it's done its Lazarus impression.
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His form is decidedly average. Went off at 8/1 for the Derby last season and ran a very ordinary race finishing midfield

On his return he beat West Wind Blows you has lost 3 times since.

He then went for a very ordinary looking Group 2 The Huxley at Chester which he won by 1 1/2 lengths from a horse who has gone 6 races now without a win.

Add to that is Huxley winners are not known for winning top grade 1 races.

Compared to COT he is a very ordinary looking horse
 
I agree the collateral form is ordinary and compared to COT he is ordinary (compared to the COT we saw in the 2000G is another matter) but there was more to that Chester run than the bare result, according to Simon Rowlands:

Usually one of the weaker Group 2s, and overall that may be true again this year, but the winner took it in terrific fashion, smashing the course record and running some really fast late splits (22.98s for final 2f is a 105.6% finishing speed, while his final 1f of 11.35s was the fastest at any trip at the course since 2022), and he looks destined for even better things. The pace was pretty good most of the way, with that overall time and those quick late splits a testament to just how fast ground conditions were coming to the end of this 3-day meeting.

PASSENGER (116+3 here, 110 previously) had shaped nicely in his 4 previous starts, winning a Group 3 at Windsor on the back of an unplaced effort in the Derby at Epsom, but this was something better again, and the way he won suggests he can very much make his mark at the elite level. He was pushed along briefly leaving his stall then travelled well held up, improving 2f out then switched outside, having to be ridden to get alongside in the final 1f but really strong thereafter against a rival who himself was quickening, comfortably on top at the line. He has plenty of speed and this could be his trip, while he clearly goes very well on fast ground but did win the Wood Ditton on softer on his debut.
 
So Fanshaw confirms it's Irish Derby or Eclipse next for Ambiente Friendly.

Eclipse please.
 
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