The Epsom Derby

Yeah the likely ground means you're gonna want a proper boat. I've dutched Ancient Wisdom and Los Angeles. I must oppose the fav at the price and the whole Gredley/Fanshawe/Havlin axis with a 9/2 shot for the Derby? I'm not having that.
 
On Sunday night City of Troy briefly went 3/1 betfair -LA has shortened considerably today -a glitch in the matrix.
 
Maybe it's just we expect too much....In Ireland AOB has a 21% strike rate over 5 years..this season he has topped that so far with a 25% strike rate

he's also doing 2% better than normal in the UK
 
The mind boggles at why there has been this massive move for Los Angeles.

The horse won a 5 horse race 2 lengths first to last.

What were they all derby contenders?

Only 40/1 shot and stable companion Euphoric who was second beaten 1 length and looks like he's only there for the beer.

I would want 12/1 and only back him ew
 
What makes LA a top Derby contender? He's an AOB horse there is money for, normally a strong sign, he's a Group 1 winner at two, he won his trial where he wouldn't have been anywhere near fully wound up. Judging him by the content of that trial in terms of lengths won or who the oppo was is so minor in what he brings to Saturday's race. His overall profile is very strong.
 
Euronymous said:
What makes LA a top Derby contender? He's an AOB horse there is money for, normally a strong sign, he's a Group 1 winner at two, he won his trial where he wouldn't have been anywhere near fully wound up. Judging him by the content of that trial in terms of lengths won or who the oppo was is so minor in what he brings to Saturday's race. His overall profile is very strong.
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Bred for the trip too (as are so many of Coolemore's): DP = 3-2-15-10-0 (30) DI = 0.71 CD = -0.07
 
Euronymous said:
What makes LA a top Derby contender? He's an AOB horse there is money for, normally a strong sign, he's a Group 1 winner at two, he won his trial where he wouldn't have been anywhere near fully wound up. Judging him by the content of that trial in terms of lengths won or who the oppo was is so minor in what he brings to Saturday's race. His overall profile is very strong.
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Camelot progeny don’t win the Derby, do they? :) . Maybe there’s got to be a first time.
 
"Narrative Syndrome" - where the eventual winner doesn't fit in with your narrative or narrow frame or reference regarding what makes a good Derby winner, so you dismiss the winner as a moderate victor in a moderate renewal.

Beware of this in what looks an open year - 1979 looked open, then Troy went and won half the track.

16 declared - can't wait.
 
If Los Angeles was a serious threat to City of Troy and the others wild horses wouldn't stop Ryan Moore from riding him. There was a rumour he might switch but AOB said well Ryan has said nothing to me. They must be very confident City of Troy is 110% for this...despite laying back everything bar 6 quid I think City of Troy will win by half the track...
 
I love a strong opinion, even if I don't necessarily share it.

I'm vainly hoping they dodge the rain and it dries out for Ambiente Friendly.

Los Angeles and Ancient Wisdom look like boats to me and neither were their yard's original first choice for this.

But as stated I keep an open mind.
 
Tanlic said:
If Los Angeles was a serious threat to City of Troy and the others wild horses wouldn't stop Ryan Moore from riding him. There was a rumour he might switch but AOB said well Ryan has said nothing to me. They must be very confident City of Troy is 110% for this...despite laying back everything bar 6 quid I think City of Troy will win by half the track...
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Pat Eddery knew Commander in Chief was a massive threat to Tenby. Sometimes it's just easier staying on the more established contender.
 
Tanlic said:
If Los Angeles was a serious threat to City of Troy and the others wild horses wouldn't stop Ryan Moore from riding him. There was a rumour he might switch but AOB said well Ryan has said nothing to me. They must be very confident City of Troy is 110% for this...despite laying back everything bar 6 quid I think City of Troy will win by half the track...
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Totally agree.
Ryan has plenty of advisers who know rhe time of day, and I'll trust his (and their) judgement on th[s one.
Strong bet at 7/2.
 
Wouldn't surprise me if the fav got scratched aimed him at the St James Palace and Ryan got on LA

He's drifting like a barge, if he runs and flops again we don't see him run again surely?
 
Epsom dodged the worst of the rain today and Cooper won't touch the taps now - dry out ground for the Ambiente and ride-nicking Rab!
 
This is the Turftrax map from this morning, which is markedly different from yesterday's.

I think the near rail might have an advantage in the Dash on Saturday if the maps are accurate as they've been showing better ground up this side all week.

Screenshot (96).png
 
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