The Gold Cup 2010

Not overlooked but i'd expect both Kauto Star and Denman to just outjump him at the business end. That's what won the tank his race today, he was tiring and the weight concession was hard, but he just outjumped everyone else.

Presumably Barbers Shop will be aimed at the Ryanair, a decision that would make that race a super renewal.
 
The debate must be nearly over already; after a monster performance like that I can't see Denman getting beaten in the Gold Cup, Kauto or no Kauto.
 
Denman is one of the very best horses of all time. Of that there can be very little doubt. We are therefore extremely lucky that he isn't even the best staying chaser in his stable.
 
betsmate said:
Denman is one of the very best horses of all time. Of that there can be very little doubt. We are therefore extremely lucky that he isn't even the best staying chaser in his stable.
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No question,he's astonishing. In my view he's the best since Arkle. Round Cheltenham or Newbury Denman is peerless in modern times.
 
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I still take Kauto's form in the Betfair alittle more seriously then D's Henessey, both seemed alittle rusty and in the next their next runs i expect demolition jobs. Still on Kauto's bench, people still find it so easy to disregard him and question him, but on his best day I don't think many other jumpers can compare to him.
 
SteveM said:
No question,he's astonishing. In my view he's the best since Arkle. Round Cheltenham or Newbury Denman is peerless in modern times.
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No way, Pedro!

He's not yet even as good as Burrough Hill Lad or Dessie. He might not even be as good as See More Business. He's a good, reliable version of Carvills Hill.
 
Desert Orchid said:
He might not even be as good as See More Business.
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You jest surely. I'm hoping the performances we see from Kauto and Denman this season puts a little distance in the record books between themselves and the likes of SMB, Best Mate and Kicking King. They're are both in the DO late 180s level for me.
 
Yes and no.

When he was really firing and jumping, See More Business was up there. He was just as likely to plough through too many though.

And I'm talking off the top of my head. If I get the chance I'll post my figures for him.

As I said elsewhere - and this is coming from someone who values handicap performances highly - Denman's performance is exceptional in terms of handicapping. But Dessie highest rated runs were also in handicaps. There has to be the chance that Denman's size and build isn't going to make him any faster than Kauto Star who might not have managed to give away the weight yesterday. I said before the race, Denman could well be the type of horse that defies handicapping principles, which is why I said I was "shit scared" of him. I didn't back him because I thought there would be a second-season lurker in the field or because I thought State Of Play or My Will's best form might be too much but they both ran below form. That's racing, and I was thrilled to see Denamn do it.
 
Desert Orchid said:
No way, Pedro!

He's not yet even as good as Burrough Hill Lad or Dessie. He might not even be as good as See More Business. He's a good, reliable version of Carvills Hill.
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I used to think that... I don't any more. BHL or DO couldn't live with this one round Cheltenham or Newbury and Denman jumps so much better than CH (who was outstanding, but jumped like a pig round Cheltenham). SMB was good and ran to some high ratings but was a bit below these.

In a race at Cheltenham or Newbury he would have beaten any of these as he will Kauto Star (who's every bit as good as DO) back in the Gold Cup, now that he has fully recovered.
 
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For me, the big difference is that Kauto Star can hit upwards of 185 in Grade 1s. He can put real distance between himself and other Grade 1 horses.

Denman was a 183+ horse for me going into yesterday. His performance might work out on handicapping principles as a 190+ horse, which I'll calculate later in the week, but I can't imagine him running away from Kauto. I can, however, imagine Kauto scooting away from Denman from the last.
 
Not seen the race yet but well done to Denman - sounds some performance.

I would imagine the deciding factor come Cheltenham will be the ground, decent surface and Kauto must be favoured but some cut in the ground should see Denman go close.
 
If Denman is ridden aggressively in the Gold Cup and sets a storming gallop in bowling out in front, I really do think that he can beat Kauto Star. Last season the horse wasn't right and not only that, they rode him conservatively with an eye on looking after him rather than going for it. The beauty of Denman is that he has an enormous engine and in having that he can set a searching gallop when he hinself is just bowling along enjoying himself. Just as others are struggling he winds it up and goes on.

I do agree with your theories on weight though DO, some horses are capable of carrying it more easily than others, especially when they are big strong horses.

The scary thing about yesterday was that although looking fantastic, Denman was still looking a little burly and will undoubtedly improve for that run, Nicholls having left a bit to work on.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Just as we didn't see the real Denman last year, we didn't see the real Kauto the year before.
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I don't think Kauto could live with Denman round Cheltenham (or Newbury) if both at their respective peaks. Kempton I'd concede would be a different kettle of fish.
 
Shadow Leader said:
If Denman is ridden aggressively in the Gold Cup and sets a storming gallop in bowling out in front, I really do think that he can beat Kauto Star. Last season the horse wasn't right and not only that, they rode him conservatively with an eye on looking after him rather than going for it. The beauty of Denman is that he has an enormous engine and in having that he can set a searching gallop when he hinself is just bowling along enjoying himself. Just as others are struggling he winds it up and goes on.

I do agree with your theories on weight though DO, some horses are capable of carrying it more easily than others, especially when they are big strong horses.

The scary thing about yesterday was that although looking fantastic, Denman was still looking a little burly and will undoubtedly improve for that run, Nicholls having left a bit to work on.
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Denman will slaughter Kauto in the Gold Cup and eat his entrails...

I'm really quite strong on Denman's chance now.:)
 
SteveM said:
Denman will slaughter Kauto in the Gold Cup and eat his entrails...

I'm really quite strong on Denman's chance now.:)
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I think talk like this is pretty disrespectful to a horse like Kauto Star. The only way Denman 'slaughters' Kauto Star is if the latter doesn't give his running again, and that leaves us pretty much back at square one once again.
 
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