The Gold Cup 2010

I like Cooldine very much, the form looks solida nd for me he was in the RASC better than Denman in his year.


Denman was impressive last Saturday but cooldine is a better chance in my book than Kauto or Imperial for this season Gold Cup.
 
RPR:

184 Denman
160 What a Friend
151 Niche Market
160 Barbers Shop

Considering he was conceding the runner-up 22lbs, a 24 rating differential seems a tad on the small side.
 
I wouldn't be too put off by Horner Woods' run on Saturday, DO - I thought he ran like a horse who needed it and he was slow to come to hand last year as well.
 
Euronymous said:
RPR:

184 Denman
160 What a Friend
151 Niche Market
160 Barbers Shop

Considering he was conceding the runner-up 22lbs, a 24 rating differential seems a tad on the small side.
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Three lengths over 3¼ miles works out at about 2lbs so he hardly any option. Denamn might improve for the run but so might WAF and the latter's curve is likely to be steeper.

I'll be rating the race later in the week and I'll be surprised if I end up awarding Denman less than 186 for that run. It might well be closer to 190 but as I said elsewhere it doesn't mean I think he can run to that rating off levels in a Grade 1.
 
I have Denman for last saturday on 184+

In my figures he was 185+ when won the Gold Cup , and 182P when winning the first Hennessy.
 
About Cooldine
I have him on 170P for the SAC , he beat a good field in impressive style.

He has run only 5 chase races, course form, Mullins and Townend.....

In his previous race,he run to 159P, beating Forpaddy (Arkle), Trafford (Drinmore winner and a very good prospect), Tranquil Sea (PP Gold Cup) , Rare Bob (gr1 chase winner at Punch).




about Kauto

too many battles and for me regressing, I also think he was not at his best at Cheltenham.
 
sunybay said:
about Kauto

too many battles and for me regressing, I also think he was not at his best at Cheltenham.
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What evidence is there for regression, sunybay - or even battles, for that matter?

Even if he had stood-up at Haydock in 2008, he was going to run many lbs below his best, and then he went on to pulverse them in the King George. Isn't it clear from his first two BF Chases compared to his last two, that he is unsuited by the new chase track, as pointed out elsewhere by SL?

I also think suggesting he was below form at Cheltenham is a very hard argument to make. I'd certainly take a fair bit of persuading! :cool:
 
Grasshopper said:
What evidence is there for regression, sunybay - or even battles, for that matter?

Even if he had stood-up at Haydock in 2008, he was going to run many lbs below his best, and then he went on to pulverse them in the King George. Isn't it clear from his first two BF Chases compared to his last two, that he is unsuited by the new chase track, as pointed out elsewhere by SL?

I also think suggesting he was below form at Cheltenham is a very hard argument to make. I'd certainly take a fair bit of persuading! :cool:
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Last seasons Gold Cup key was Denman not fit , with a trouble preparation and Neptune Collonges injured.

At Haydock this season , even Imperial being a possible improver , I dont think he jumped as he did in the past and put a nce 10 pounds worse than his peak.
 
So how easily would he have won the race if he hadnt been "below form" then? By a lap?

I just cannot understand how such a commanding performance can be written off in such a manner

As for Haydock, he certainly has jumped a lot worse in the past. For me, he always seems more fluent right handed anyway, but those occasional errors have pretty well been ironed out.
 
davidjohnson said:
If you still don't get it, then it could well be a waste of my time writing this and your time reading it as we're going over old ground again. Kauto Star's first Gold Cup was steadily run and both he and the runner-up were much better than the bare form. Kauto Star's second to Denman was a good way below the best of his form that season and also the following season as he showed when regaining the Gold Cup. You can use either RPR's or Timeform Ratings to illustrate this, or I suspect any other type of rating that are worth the paper they are written on.
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Thanks david... I don't find this the least little bit convincing and share the view of Pricewise in today's Post that Denman will "easily" beat Kauto round Cheltenham (assuming both are hale and hearty)
 
Cooldine and Imperial Commander are next best after the top two in the Gold Cup, but a long way next best. If Denman and Kauto are ready to roll they are all running for third place. I doubt it will be a big field this time.
 
Neptune Collonges was beaten 20+lengths by Kauto Star in 2009. Kauto Star was all out to hold the same rival by a short head. Obviously we can't be sure Neptune gave his running if he suffered an injury but it's foof for thought.
 
Euronymous said:
Kauto Star was able to run the best race of his life in the Gold Cup because he was never put to the sword.
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Quite so. Denman simply didn't allow Kauto to dictate in 2008 and jumped them senseless. You will see good horses pulling up in the Gold Cup as we did in the Hennessy if he demoralises them like that again.
 
Euronymous said:
Kauto Star was able to run the best race of his life in the Gold Cup because he was never put to the sword.
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I don't know about that, Euro.

Kauto Star travelled and jumped beautifully in the last Gold Cup - it was a complete contrast to the year before. Denman would have had to be travelling a good lump quicker, to have got him out of his comfort zone, imo.

I don't think the difference in KS performances between 2008 and 2009 can be attributed solely to the gallop that Denman set in his Gold Cup. KS was staying on at the finish, and essentially reducing the margin all the way from the third last - it wasn't like he was galloped into absolute submission, and finished a broken horse. I personally think an on-song Kauto Star will be able to go whatever pace Denman wants to serve up - he would just need to get into the kind of rhythm that was missing in 2008.

Was his rhythm affected by the pace Denman set? It's certainly possible, but I just felt that the horse was never really going at any stage, and had made several errors before Denman even took it up.

If Denman can gallop like he did in 2008, and Kauto can travel and jump like he did in 2009 - we have some race in store.
 
SteveM said:
Quite so. Denman simply didn't allow Kauto to dictate in 2008 and jumped them senseless. You will see good horses pulling up in the Gold Cup as we did in the Hennessy if he demoralises them like that again.
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Steve, Kauto never dictates in his races - he is always held up, and likes a lead. As per my previous post, I'm unconvinced by arguments that suggest KS will be galloped into submission in the Gold Cup.
 
Grasshopper said:
Steve, Kauto never dictates in his races - he is always held up, and likes a lead. As per my previous post, I'm unconvinced by arguments that suggest KS will be galloped into submission in the Gold Cup.
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Fair enough... I, on the other hand, take the view that Kauto will not be able to do anything about Denman in this form.

...March will reveal all.
 
Timeform give Denman a provisional 181.

Saw the race, he did it well and it was clearly a tremendous effort under the weight but I was not quite blown away as others. For sure I think Denman is a more "popular" horse than Kauto and people see to have connected with him more so.
 
Galileo said:
Timeform give Denman a provisional 181.

Saw the race, he did it well and it was clearly a tremendous effort under the weight but I was not quite blown away as others. For sure I think Denman is a more "popular" horse than Kauto and people see to have connected with him more so.
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Thing is Gal the weight as such was no more than when he won it before. The difference is he won this as he liked off 174, which was a 13lb higher relative mark than last time... This was one of the great weight-carrying performances. Ruby said he didn't think it could be done. Before the race he said he might finish third or fourth and still win the Gold Cup.
 
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Galileo said:
For sure I think Denman is a more "popular" horse than Kauto and people see to have connected with him more so.
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That's the impression I get as well, and I thought so before Denman had his heart problem. Why do you think that is? Is it because he has run in and won big handicaps? Is it his running style?

Quite a few people I know say they respect Kauto's achievements, but that they love Denman. When I ask why, most can't give a particular reason, although one person did say that Kauto was 'funny looking' :rolleyes:

Of the two, Kauto is my favourite, but I love Denman as well, and one thing I've never done is belittle one while talking up the other. On Saturday at Newbury, I did hear a couple of people do just this to Kauto while enthusing over Denman.
 
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