The Gold Cup 2010

I disagree, Steve......for me, it is absolutely clear-cut and there is no debate....Walsh will ride Kauto Star.

It's bleedin' obvious what the alternative scenario is.......you don't need to be 'alive' to it........you just have to determine how likely/unlikely it is........and on all known evidence, it would appear to be hugely unlikely assuming KS makes the race.
 
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Grasshopper said:
I disagree, Steve......for me, it is absolutely clear-cut and there is no debate....Walsh will ride Kauto Star.
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They said the same about Eddery and Tenby. That was indeed the outcome. But it didn't reflect what was actually going on in the mind of his rider.
 
I don't consider what goes on in the mind of a pea-brained Flat jockey to be anything like a comparison. :D

Eddery was faced with a one-shot deal, regarding horses he had no lasting affiliation with. Walsh's situation could not be any more different.
 
...we're discussing the possibility (as this is an open forum). You're being very active in the discussion for one that believes there is nothing to discuss.:)
 
Unless Findlay and Barber force his hand again I think Walsh will wait. Personally, I believe despite the lasting affinity that if it comes up soft Walsh will know that Denman is the more likely victor and will ride him. I'm not sure Walsh is that sentimental. He's pretty ruthless under the pleasant exterior I reckon.
 
From the man himself:

Walsh: "He [Denman] looks a million dollars. It was a great performance at Newbury, he looks fit and he came out of the race really well. He looks really strong and he's going in the right direction.
"The Aon Chase at Newbury is a long way off but hopefully I'll be on him. I'm looking forward to riding him - who wouldn't look forward to riding Denman again? He's an incredible horse."
Walsh will bid to make history when he goes for a fourth consecutive William Hill King George VI Chase aboard Kauto Star at Kempton on Boxing Day, and he may yet have to decide which superstar to ride in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
That decision won't be an easy one, as is apparent as Walsh compares their qualities.
He said: "They look very different horses but they both have one thing in common in that they have an awful lot of ability. They're two extremely high-class horses.
"Denman is a prolific galloper, stays incredibly well and jumps immaculately, where as Kauto is a bit sharper. But they are both outstanding horses and for them to be living next door to each other is amazing."

Source: PA
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Aragorn said:
Unless Findlay and Barber force his hand again I think Walsh will wait. Personally, I believe despite the lasting affinity that if it comes up soft Walsh will know that Denman is the more likely victor and will ride him. I'm not sure Walsh is that sentimental. He's pretty ruthless under the pleasant exterior I reckon.
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I agree Walsh will want to leave the decision for as long as possible. Assuming he has the choice (which is likely) and they do not (as you say) force his hand.
 
SteveM said:
...we're discussing the possibility (as this is an open forum). You're being very active in the discussion for one that believes there is nothing to discuss.:)
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Like I say....idle chit-chat because there's nowt else going on! :)
 
As far as I'm concerned this is about the most important thing that could be going on... short of an infant bringing new hope to the world.

To recap:

If Walsh cannot split them in his mind he’ll no doubt stick with Kauto.

Even if he’s leaning toward Denman, he’ll probably stick with Kauto.

So, if/when he does choose Denman, imagine what that will do to Denman’s price…

...be lucky.
 
The only way Kauto will not go off favourite will be if 1) The ground is testing come Cheltenham and 2) Kauto himself disappoints.

Presumably Kauto will shorten when (there is no if imo) Walsh confirms he is riding him.

I do find it funny that Denman is described as the unique one and one that doesn't comes around often.....I wish I could see all these horses that are so similar to Kauto in recent years!!!
 
Whether Walsh rides or not it's virtually certain Denman will be favourite. They can't be split on ratings and Denman is better suited to Cheltenham. There you have it.

I keep coming back to Ruby's astonishment that he won the Hennessy as he liked when in Walsh's opinion (at the time) he thought he could be placed at best if running his race.
 
Presumably Ruby's "astonishment" will mean he rides Denman? If not it means very little.

Kauto Star has too much class for any horse over any trip. The only reason Walsh will pick Denman will be if the ground is testing enough to drag the class out of the race and turn it into a slog.
 
I think jockeys are generally amongst the worst tipsters in racing so I wouldn't put too much emphasis on what Ruby says.

I think the ground may well play as much part as anything, but Kauto is more than well enough suited to Cheltenham to beat a tip top Denman, and this can be seen by him putting up the best Gold Cup performance I've seen winning last season's renewal. Yes, it would have been better if Denman could have been more aggressively ridden and would have made more of a race of it, but there is no Gold Cup horse in my racing years that would have beaten Kauto last season.
 
Galileo said:
Presumably Ruby's "astonishment" will mean he rides Denman? If not it means very little.

Kauto Star has too much class for any horse over any trip. The only reason Walsh will pick Denman will be if the ground is testing enough to drag the class out of the race and turn it into a slog.
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That's not so though. See earlier comments from Walsh. He believes that Denman will stay and jump the better, but that Kauto is a bit sharper. That's why he'd likely favour Kauto in the KG and Denman in the Gold Cup.

But like I say:

If Walsh cannot split them in his mind he’ll no doubt stick with Kauto.

Even if he’s leaning toward Denman, he’ll probably stick with Kauto.

So, if/when he does choose Denman, imagine what that will do to Denman’s price…

...this will be what is significant and what will make the difference.
 
If he favours Denman in the Gold Cup then he will be able to split them - so he will ride Denman. You are contradicting yourself.....if he was so astonished with Denmans Hennessy win and is certain that Denman is a better horse than Kauto at Cheltenham then he will ride Denman in the Gold Cup - end of. If he rides Kauto Star it is because he thinks has the best chance of winning the Gold Cup on him again and that he believes Kauto is as good around Cheltenham as anywhere else.

I think most will find it hard to believe that he would ride Kauto Star if he genuinely believed that Denman was the better jumper, stays better and handles the track better.
 
Steve, if you could have a bet on which way Walsh will jump, what kind of price would you be looking for about him riding Denman?
 
Galileo said:
If he favours Denman in the Gold Cup then he will be able to split them - so he will ride Denman. You are contradicting yourself.....
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I'm not... you are not reading what I said. I've said that 1) If Walsh cannot split them in his mind he’ll no doubt stick with Kauto. But that 2) Even if he’s leaning toward Denman, he’ll probably stick with Kauto. So 3) if/when he does choose Denman, imagine what that will do to Denman’s price…

It's all about looking at the various scenarios then being objective about it.
 
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Grasshopper said:
Steve, if you could have a bet on which way Walsh will jump, what kind of price would you be looking for about him riding Denman?
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Couldn't say at the moment. Currently I think like you that Walsh will stick with Kauto even if he is slightly leaning toward Denman. But I'm coming round to the idea that he might switch, as that idea appears to be growing in his public statements.
 
I really don't see anything in his statements which suggests he has any inclination to get off Kauto, Steve. I thiunk you're seeing something that isn't there, to be honest.
 
Grasshopper said:
DJ, do you think Master Medic will get the trip at Kempton?

There's not a great deal of stamina in his pedigree, and though he got 2m5f very well at Huntingdon last season, the extra is a trip into the unknown.

I've backed at up to 180, but I confess it's with an IR Lay in mind, as I can't make a case for him lasting home against the likes of Kauto Star and Imperial Commander.
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Bit of momentum building behind Master Medic, DJ/Rory.

Cut across the board today, and Hills have halved their "Without Kauto" price in the last 24 hours.
 
I think Ruby rode first season Kauto because of the bonus and last year did it because Denman was not fully fit.

I think if fully fit both horses in March , Ruby will be on Denman, especially with the owners having more horses than Kautos owners.
 
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