The Gold Cup 2010

When he said theoretically I assumed Steve was referring to the ratings that have Kauto Star comfortably clear of Denman.
 
Purely from a punting angle 9-4 Denman just looks too big. There was a big gulf in the Gold Cup betting last season before Denman had a setback.
 
Galileo said:
Over a 3 miles that is likely to suit a horse like Barber Shop that bit better than the test Newbury turned out to be.
Click to expand...

They went too fast at Kempton and he had to be scrubbed along earlier than ideal to keep up. I think he ran better in the Hennessy.
 
Gearoid said:
he is 9-4 for as much as you like. Please dont give a smug reply that your on at 9-1.
Click to expand...

Well I am on at 9/1 and 7/1 (as I mentioned at the time), but have taken a large amount of 9/4 ahead of the Aon, as I really can't see another result in the big one. I already stand to win more than I did on Punjabi last year who I backed at all prices between 33/1 and 14/1 to large size). I only refer to this to convice you of the strength of my convuction in Denman for this year's Gold Cup.
 
Last edited:
SteveM said:
They are closely matched theoretically. In practice Cheltenham will separate them. Denman is a better horse at Cheltenham than Kauto is on his best day. You are right Denman was a shadow of his self in the 2009 Gold Cup (and for all of last season), but Kauto ran up to his best in 2008 and was hammered. I don't see what Kauto will be able to do to beat Denman at Cheltenham. Denman must surely be clear favourite to win. Perhaps the penny will drop after the Aon.
Click to expand...


To suggest that Kauto ran up to his best in the 2008 GC is fanciful . His jumping was all over the place and he was struggling on the first circuit at a pace that in no way was faster than the Tingle Creek or the lung bursting 2009 KG .

I repeat suggesting he is a head better than NC strikes me as utter nonsense.
 
Did I just read that it was suggested that AP is not a good judge of pace .... so how come he has won hundreds if not thousands of races from the front ?
 
but have taken a large amount of 9/4 ahaed of the Aon
Click to expand...

I can't see that he'll be asked or prepped to do anything in the Aon that would result in any sort of significant price change, yet there's always the possibility of things going dramatically wrong. I'd wait it out till the final declarations at this stage.
 
Galileo said:
When he said theoretically I assumed Steve was referring to the ratings that have Kauto Star comfortably clear of Denman.
Click to expand...

Even after the KG there was a piece in the Post stating that Denman’s underlying speed (yes speed) performance in the Hennessy was superior.

Nevertheless I’m, not denying that Kauto’s rating at Kempton was extraordinary, beating the likes of Barber’s Shop with contempt. However (as has been mentioned) Denman also beat Barber’s Shop decisively giving him 18lb. The defining thing is that it is all down to what they can do a Cheltenham rather than Kempton or Newbury. At Cheltenham there is one clear winner for me. Again (as in 2008) I believe Kauto will be taken out of his comfort zone and Denman immersed in his.
 
Last edited:
Melendez said:
I can't see that he'll be asked or prepped to do anything in the Aon that would result in any sort of significant price change, yet there's always the possibility of things going dramatically wrong. I'd wait it out till the final declarations at this stage.
Click to expand...

You have a point. On the other hand, if he wins a distance without being asked to do anything the 9/4 against could start to look very big. It's by building a portfolio at available prices, bit by bit, that you extract true value.
 
Last edited:
SteveM said:
The defining thing is that it is all down to what they can do a Cheltenham rather than Kempton or Newbury. At Cheltenham there is one clear winner for me. Again (as in 2008) I believe Kauto will be taken out of his comfort zone and Denman immersed in his.
Click to expand...

I know you feel that way but your previous quote suggested that even before the "Cheltenham Factor" there was not much between them on rating when in truth now there is.
 
Galileo said:
I know you feel that way but your previous quote suggested that even before the "Cheltenham Factor" there was not much between them on rating when in truth now there is.
Click to expand...

I understand what you mean. If you want to look at the ratings Kauto ought to win. But if you look at the real depth of their respective capabilities and their respective aptitudes, I believe Kauto will struggle against Denman. If that is true, then they will push Denman's rating up to square the circle. So I wouldn't get too fixated on the strength of one performance in which Kauto's rating is suddenly so much higher.
 
SteveM said:
But if you look at the real depth of their respective capabilities and their respective aptitudes, I believe Kauto will struggle against Denman.
Click to expand...

In terms of form displayed, Kauto's 2009 Gold Cup victory was better than Denman's in 2008. The suggestion that Cheltenham will somehow prove Kauto's Achilles Heel, or that he is less effective than Denman at the track, simply doesn't stack up.
 
Grasshopper said:
In terms of form displayed, Kauto's 2009 Gold Cup victory was better than Denman's in 2008. The suggestion that Cheltenham will somehow prove Kauto's Achilles Heel, or that he is less effective than Denman at the track, simply doesn't stack up.
Click to expand...

You see I don't believe that is true. Even if it were Kauto was allowed to run to his own style last time, which he simply wasn't allowed to do the time before. This year's race should answer all outstanding misconceptions (...both yours and mine equally).
 
Hamm said:
I would back Kauto Star to win by more than 5/6 lengths.
Click to expand...

That's more or less how I see it, but the other way round. With McCoy driving Denman up the Cheltenham hill I wouldn't back any of the horses of the Apocalypse to get to him.
 
SteveM said:
They are closely matched theoretically. In practice Cheltenham will separate them. Denman is a better horse at Cheltenham than Kauto is on his best day. You are right Denman was a shadow of his self in the 2009 Gold Cup (and for all of last season), but Kauto ran up to his best in 2008 and was hammered. I don't see what Kauto will be able to do to beat Denman at Cheltenham. Denman must surely be clear favourite to win. Perhaps the penny will drop after the Aon.
Click to expand...

WTF. :blink:

So, theoretically: 3m 2f race at Cheltenham, Kauto Star vs Neptune Collonges, level weights. Has Neptune Collonges got an equal chance?

Have a word with yourself!

Not to mention the mighty Halcon Genelardais holding up the form being 9 lengths away in fourth.

It's all about the jumping for me - Kauto's jumping has improved beyond all recognition since the 2008 Gold Cup - if he jumps well he wins with his head in his chest IMO.

If he doesn't, he won't.
 
Although the more you keep labouring the same point, doesn't increase the chances of being proven correct, as anyone who saw Fame And Glory in the second half of last season would testify.
 
Back
Top