The Gold Cup 2010

Desert Orchid said:
They've done me no harm, I have to say, which is why I'm happy to rely on them if they appear to add up. Sometimes they don't, in which case I'm prepared to dismiss them, and I've always insisted form lines are far more reliable anyway. It's the form line that puts Kauto Star on 193+, not the time.
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I agree with you there, DO. I use speed ratings mostly as an indication of a horse's level of ability and use form for everything else.

While many will point out that the final figure is subjective, dependent on the pace at which the race was run, it is noticeable how often the same/similar figures turn up in a horse's profile, so a general picture of its ability at different class levels can be gained.

(For the record - Kauto has only once scored below 81 in my scale, while Denman has never scored below 83.)
 
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22506-P AIR FORCE ONE (GER) 8 Brian Walsh (Co Kildare) Charlie Mann
03-P136 ALBERTAS RUN (IRE) 9 Trevor Hemmings Jonjo O'Neill
15//11-FP ARAN CONCERTO (IRE) 9 John Corr Noel Meade IRE
204-P01 CALGARY BAY (IRE) 7 Camilla Radford Henrietta Knight
2114-51 CARRUTHERS 7 The Oaksey Partnership Mark Bradstock
P15P-14 CASEY JONES (IRE) 9 Gillian Burke Noel Meade IRE
50PP/05- CERIUM (FR) 9 Judith Wilson Paul Murphy
431FU-3 CLOUDY LANE 10 Trevor Hemmings Donald McCain Jnr
1311-4P COOLDINE (IRE) 8 Violet O'Leary Willie Mullins IRE
11/22F-1 DENMAN (IRE) 10 Paul Barber & Maggie Findlay Paul Nicholls
1/0411/-3 GLENCOVE MARINA (IRE) 8 John Brennan Willie Mullins IRE
161-P25 IMPERIAL COMMANDER (IRE) 9 Our Friends in the North Nigel Twiston-Davies
13/4/-12P IN COMPLIANCE (IRE) 10 Mrs B Mulryan/Mrs Noeleen Mccreevy Dessie Hughes IRE
1U11-11 KAUTO STAR (FR) 10 Clive Smith Paul Nicholls
1101-32 MADISON DU BERLAIS (FR) 9 Roger Stanley & Yvonne Reynolds II David Pipe
2001-P3 MON MOME (FR) 10 Vida Bingham Venetia Williams
F21-112 MONEY TRIX (IRE) 10 Craig Bennett Nicky Richards
6P/6220- MR POINTMENT (IRE) 11 Judith Wilson Paul Murphy
553-205 MY WILL (FR) 10 The Stewart Family Paul Nicholls
12-1F54 NOTRE PERE (FR) 9 Tillie Conway Jim Dreaper IRE
31414-1 RARE BOB (IRE) 8 D A Syndicate Dessie Hughes IRE
3P6-454 ROLL ALONG (IRE) 10 Bryan & Philippa Burrough Nigel Twiston-Davies
32-2245 SCHINDLERS HUNT (IRE) 10 Slaneyville Syndicate Dessie Hughes IRE
112/14P/- TARANIS (FR) 9 Angela Yeoman Paul Nicholls
1/1///P6-4 TRABOLGAN (IRE) 12 Trevor Hemmings Nicky Henderson
422121- TRICKY TRICKSTER (IRE) 7 Chris Giles Paul Nicholls
1161-21 WHAT A FRIEND 7 Ged Mason & Sir Alex Ferguson Paul Nicholls
 
Ladbrokes: 1-2 Denman, 4 Joncol, Money Trix, 6 Cooldine, Notre Pere, 7 Madison Du Berlais, 14 Le Beau Bai, 16 In Compliance, Rare Bob, Schindlers Hunt, Snowy Morning, 20 Glencove Marina, Made in Taipan, 25 Aran Concerto, J'y Vole, 33 Cara Mara, Casey Jones
 
Galileo said:
Judging from the RP today it looks like Denman will run at Leopardstown rather than Newbury next.
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They're still agonising over the decision. The Aon is favoured but they don't want to miss both and if Newbury is abandoned that could happen. I don't think it matters much where he shows up. It would be great to see him go to Ireland (although selfishly I want to see him at Newbury as I can't get over for the Irish race).
 
So you don't think they are going for the pot in Ireland because they don't expect to land the GC ???:D
 
If he goes to Newbury then I'm going. I've seen Denman run four times. Once, matter of factly, as a novice. In the 2008 Aon Chase where he blew away Regal Heights, Celestial Gold and Ollie Magern, with his closest challenger 20 lengths behind. The day he finished 23 lengths behind Madison Du Berlais was just a one off, as it was his first race back, I was there aswell. I also saw him run in the Hennessy of 2009, 28th November when he beat What a Friend. If he does go to Newbury you can bet your life I'm going.

GOLD CUP BETTING 2010

Kauto Star = 11-8fav
Denman = 2-1
Imperial Commander = 14-1
Cooldine = 16-1
What a Friend = 20-1
Carruthers = 33-1
Madison Du Berlais = 33-1

No one is anywhere NEAR K.S and Denman in the betting. This is setting out to be the more anticipated race than "64 and "08!
 
I've been thinking about the Kauto v Arkle debate on and off over the last wee while.

There's obviously a school of thought that says chasers are much better these days because of better/harder training regimes and better application of science to feeding etc., therefore they're uch more likely to be closer to Arkle.

There is a reverse side to the argument.

If Kauto Star is a 193 horse because he is accessing better training, feeding, etc., what would he have been rated 40 years ago? 173? Given that he and Denman are a good stone better than anything else around, that would put the rest on a maximum of about 160 - and Best Mate would have been around that figure too. So a normal Gold Cup winner 40 years ago would only be rated around 160?

Nah, I can't have that.
 
Denman off to the Aon - shame I was hoping to see him on Saturday. I hope the weather doesn't take a turn for the worse.
 
redhead said:
I agree with you there, DO. I use speed ratings mostly as an indication of a horse's level of ability and use form for everything else.

While many will point out that the final figure is subjective, dependent on the pace at which the race was run, it is noticeable how often the same/similar figures turn up in a horse's profile, so a general picture of its ability at different class levels can be gained.

(For the record - Kauto has only once scored below 81 in my scale, while Denman has never scored below 83.)
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Like to say what figure you have for Imperial Commander, Redhead?
14/1 looks interesting ...
 
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