The Hennessy (Newbury)

That is a fair point although he might settle more with maturity. On the other hand you are not exactly looking at too many races over and above the two grade one 3 milers hes won so far.

I thought he had gone last year but credit to connections.
 
clivex said:
frankly it became a childish mantra here based on some stupid assessment on the betfair which even if it had been run at 2 furlongs less than stated ...unlikely... would have been a galloped away 2m 7f in soft going
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This is unfair, in my view.

It was the performance in the King George (when he stopped as if shot, between the last two) that raised questions about his stamina. Until then, the prevailing mindset had been that it might not matter that the Betfair was run over shorter than advertised. It was only after the King George that people questioned the real merit of the Betfair, when it came to his stamina - a position that - far from being childish - was, and continues to be, entirely justified, given Cue Card has done very little since, to dispel the questions about how well he stays in top company.

Don't forget that the first two were massively favoured by the weights in there Charlie Hall, and the race barely presented a stamina test anyway, as Cue Card was given an easy lead and allowed to dictate. In a better race (like a King George) he would have the gun put to his head again.
 
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granger said:
On paper it looks a stronger than average renewal

Anyone have any concerns about SDR maybe being a flat track bully?
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too early to say i reckon but for this race i would rather see a little more hardened evidence. But as said, no trainer anywhere better at finding the key to any horse
 
Grasshopper said:
This is unfair, in my view.

It was the performance in the King George (when he stopped as if shot, between the last two) that raised questions about his stamina. Until then, the prevailing mindset had been that it might not matter that the Betfair was run over shorter than advertised. It was only after the King George that people questioned the real merit of the Betfair, when it came to his stamina - a position that - far from being childish - was, and continues to be, entirely justified, given Cue Card has done very little since, to dispel the questions about how well he stays in top company.

Don't forget that the first two were massively favoured by the weights in there Charlie Hall, and the race barely presented a stamina test anyway, as Cue Card was given an easy lead and allowed to dictate. In a better race (like a King George) he would have the gun put to his head again.
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thats not quite how it panned out on here at all, where the obsession with the betfair distance lost all perspective. even if after the kgv. perhaps some dont quite get that the ....very unlikely... 2m 7f is 1f away from 3m as is 3m 1f.

He did not blow up like a non stayer in the kgv. I didnt get the observations at the time. for me non stayers gradually slide back... not stop as if shot.

they were favoured at the weights but you have to be pretty strong in the stamina to take any race so convincingly from the front and whichever way you look at it he beat a proven 3m KGV horse, that was fancied for this race , off level weights
 
clivex said:
thats not quite how it panned out on here at all, where the obsession with the betfair distance lost all perspective. even if after the kgv. perhaps some dont quite get that the ....very unlikely... 2m 7f is 1f away from 3m as is 3m 1f.

He did not blow up like a non stayer in the kgv. I didnt get the observations at the time. for me non stayers gradually slide back... not stop as if shot.

they were favoured at the weights but you have to be pretty strong in the stamina to take any race so convincingly from the front and whichever way you look at it he beat a proven 3m KGV horse, that was fancied for this race , off level weights
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He absolutely blew-up like a non-stayer in that King George. He also finished legless in his previous (admittedly made mistakes) and subsequent (no real excuses) attempts in the race.

As has been alluded to earlier, they all stay eventually, but how many chances do you plan on giving him, before it occurs to you that the 2013 Betfair Chase was probably an anomaly - it being the only time he's been successful at G1 level over the trip in six attempts, and it being a race where it's questionable as to whether they travelled 3m anyway? Aren't there just too many coincidences there?

For the record, I have long been a staunch advocate of Cue Card, as a trawl through these pages will attest to - but even I can see he is better over shorter and will always be vulnerable to a true 3m-chaser, at the highest level. In that context, he doesn't stay.
 
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Grasshopper said:
He absolutely blew-up like a non-stayer in that King George. He also finished legless in his previous (admittedly made mistakes) and subsequent (no real excuses) attempts in the race.

As has been alluded to earlier, they all stay eventually, but how many chances do you plan on giving him, before it occurs to you that the 2013 Betfair Chase was probably an anomaly - it being the only time he's been successful at G1 level over the trip in six attempts, and it being a race where it's questionable as to whether they travelled 3m anyway? Aren't there just too many coincidences there?

For the record, I have long been a staunch advocate of Cue Card, as a trawl through these pages will attest to - but even I can see he is better over shorter and will always be vulnerable to a true 3m-chaser, at the highest level. In that context, he doesn't stay.
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ffs dont you get numbers?

how much shorter could the betfair chase have been? come on now... Lets just say a vert unlikely 2f...which i do not believe for a minute

it was never ever any more of an "anomaly" than that

that makes it 2m 7f in soft... running on

that is 3m as near as damnit. its the equivalent of knocking 50 yards off a sprint.

its like dealing with accountants. can calculate numbers but cant understand them

He has been better at shorter and might still be but hes proven at 3m.He will, has and can beat many of the near best... dynaste... at that distance
 
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That day though he beat Dynaste who at that time he had a good 10lb class advatage over and a S Conti who needed the race first time out.
 
Euronymous said:
That day though he beat Dynaste who at that time he had a good 10lb class advatage over and a S Conti who needed the race first time out.
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Not the point. If he "didnt stay" he would not have beaten any of that field. simple as that. And certainly not in that manner
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Cue Card tore a fetlock in that KG
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He stopped so quickly. I was there and we all immediately thought something had happened. Seen a good few not see out that race and its a fade away rather than stopping suddenly. cant recall similar at all
 
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winning a grade 2 charlie hall doesn't mean a horse stays well enough to win at grade 1 level Clive..they all stay..its when asked at highest level that shows they stay in the true sense.. the charlie hall had a horse rated 160 in it giving CC 10lbs and was beaten 15 lengths..which puts cue card on a 165 for winning it..you won't win a KG or betfair..over the full trip..running a 165.

CC's record when running over a true 3 miles in Grade one reads 52454
 
That's just plain silly ec. 15 lengths is too far to be taken literally. And you are conveniently ignoring and rather ridiculously ignoring the main rival who is proven stayed at 3m in a hard run kgv last year
 
handicapping is silly...not seeing that to be fair

15 lengths is bugger all at 3 miles..sorry..just less than 3 miles:D...of course it can be taken literally

what rating has CC run to in the Charlie Hall then?..remember a 160 horse will be getting just 5lb less than what you give CC
 
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EC1 said:
handicapping is silly...not seeing that to be fair

15 lengths is bugger all at 3 miles..sorry..just less than 3 miles:D...of course it can be taken literally

what rating has CC run to in the Charlie Hall then?..remember a 160 horse will be getting just 5lb less than what you give CC
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Not answering it are you?

dynaste is rated 166? With a previous run too Beaten 4 lengths? So your rating of 165 for the winner off level weights is what then?

Crap?

When a horse is beaten by a big distance I do not take that literally in terms of lengths and weights. That makes no sense to me because well beaten as sam winner was can be anything depending on race. I only rate, or at least prfer, to rate through those that were competitive .
 
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clivex said:
Not answering it are you?

dynaste is rated 166? With a previous run too Beaten 4 lengths? So your rating of 165 for the winner off level weights is what then?

Crap?

When a horse is beaten by a big distance I do not take that literally in terms of lengths and weights. That makes no sense to me because well beaten as sam winner was can be anything depending on race. I only rate through those that were competitive .
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oh aye..i'll answer what you want Clive..no issue

but sam winner was competetive..in fact using your method..he's run 10lb above his best mark

i'll say again..15 lengths isn't a big distance at 3 miles..if it is then you are saying that a horse that gets beaten by 7.5 lengths in a derby hasn't been competetive..or a horse that gets beaten 5 lengths in a guineas..hasn't been competetive..or a horse that gets beaten 3 lengths in a Nunthorpe hasn't been competetive

just to add..Cue Card is now BHA rated 167 on back of that Charlie Hall..so official handicapper must be "crap" too..he dropped dynaste a lb too..but left Sam winner on 160..which shows he hasn't rated the race off dynaste
 
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Smad place hasn't been mentioned? I was very taken with his run at kempton. Maybe it's me but I thought he jumped as good as I've seen him and it was quietly impressive . He's surely a Hennessy type
 
EC1 said:
oh aye..i'll answer what you want Clive..no issue

but sam winner was competetive..in fact using your method..he's run 10lb above his best mark

i'll say again..15 lengths isn't a big distance at 3 miles..if it is then you are saying that a horse that gets beaten by 7.5 lengths in a derby hasn't been competetive..or a horse that gets beaten 5 lengths in a guineas..hasn't been competetive..or a horse that gets beaten 3 lengths in a Nunthorpe hasn't been competetive

just to add..Cue Card is now BHA rated 167 on back of that Charlie Hall..so official handicapper must be "crap" too..he dropped dynaste a lb too..but left Sam winner on 160..which shows he hasn't rated the race off dynaste
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That's up to them it's half way between what I would rate and you would rate Why he's hasnt off dynaste makes no sense to me at all in truth.

Flat races are entirely different . A chase can be run in so many ways. Clearly if they bowl round and then just take it on late in the race it's different to an outright gallop. That doesn't excatly happen in sorints
 
clivex said:
Smad place hasn't been mentioned? I was very taken with his run at kempton. Maybe it's me but I thought he jumped as good as I've seen him and it was quietly impressive . He's surely a Hennessy type
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Smad Place will be popular for people trying to take on Coneygree. And easy to see him running very well. The problem I have is that he will be one (not many) who will travel well for a long way. He could though pay the price and fall in a hole for trying to keep tabs.
Wouldn't be surprised if we got at least one at big prices in the money who was just ridden out back plodding on.
 
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