The Hennessy (Newbury)

He would of course added extra spice to the KG field but I'm happy if he makes it to Newbury. Will test the metal of SDR and tell us where he potentially fits in the Gold Cup picture, if at all.
 
I want him to win this as much as the next man but I can see Coneygree shortening in the betting and leaving some e/w value on Smad Place, who is a horse that hasn't carried under 11 stone over fences before but should appreciate having no weight on his back.
Smad Place always comes on leaps and bounds for his first seasonal start, so to win last time tells me he must be in rude health. I could see myself doing a reverse forecast on Coneygree and Smad Place.
 
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It's a pretty uninspiring line-up tbh. The top 3 deserve to be at the head of the market which makes me think Valseur Lido is the value.
 
marble said:
I want him to win this as much as the next man but I can see Coneygree shortening in the betting and leaving some e/w value on Smad Place, who is a horse that hasn't carried under 11 stone over fences before but should appreciate having no weight on his back.
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Coneygree SDR take too much out of the market. Some mad each way value out there. I'll probably add Smad Place to my nice possie on HDO
 
Considering his level of form is lights years behind what Bob's Worth and Denman achieved when they won it as second season chasers he's gonna be incredibly short.
 
Suffered an overreach which he has never done before, suggesting something is wrong. Sara Bradstock is on Racing UK at 11.50am.
 
Bobs worth off a mark 7lbs lower than when tearing Tidal Bay a new one in this race a few years ago, having proven himself in decent form with a spin over hurdles, is a knocking good bet here.
 
He didn't prove much imo. He went out like a light in all his chase runs last season and that run over hurdles was more akin to a gallop than a proper race. Like SDR, even more so really, he has massive questions to answer when he put under pressure in a big race. ]

I've added The Druids Nephew to my position on Houblon. I think the front three in the market are all too short - recency bias works both ways.
 
Theatre Guide is one of a few that'll benefit most from Coneygree's absence.

A good 3rd in the race a couple of years back he's still only 8 and had a pleasing enough seasonal opener to warm up for the race. the 49s on the machine didn't last long following the withdrawal but still available at 33/1, which is the same as the offices. Not the worst each way bet ever off a featherweight.
 
I've just printed off the 5-day decs and compared them to the original entries.

Jeez, this race has fallen apart like a drunken whure's legs.
 
Goodness. It's not much better than your average Saturday afternoon handicap. If Valseur Lido doesn't travel over I'd be inclined to give Fingal Bay another chance. He's due a big run over fences.
 
SDR will be going very close with a clear round of jumping but he's way too short, 10/1 is fair for The Young Master who Still looks well in off 149.
 
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