The Hennessy (Newbury)

Something I wrote the other day:

I remarked somewhere earlier in the week that this race had fallen apart badly. This was because I’d noticed that 20 out of the top 30 in the weights had been withdrawn. That seldom happens. However, we’re still left with a very strong renewal for which almost any one of them can be fancied and most of those taken out would have struggled from their current mark. Coneygree’s withdrawal is a huge disappointment.

I took 16/1 (now 6/1) Bobs Worth after his reappearance run. I’m still thinking of laying off at the shorter price. The bottom line is that if he’s anywhere near back he’s a good thing but I see the commercial firms are dissing the Wetherby race.

I took 33/1 First Lieutenant (now 20s and shortening) earlier in the week but I do have reservations about the jockey as well as the trainer’s form. However, this time last season they were still talking about the Lexus and the Gold Cup for him so his drop to 147 is quite lenient. He ran perfectly respectably last time in a Grade 2 and after his first run last season his trainer said he “often starts the season slowly” and he went on to be beaten just under 12 lengths in the Lexus. That form is some way below his best (when not beaten far by Silviniaco Conti at Aintree in the Bowl) but it’s enough to leave him clear top in the table. If I can lay this bet off at 16s I will.

For this race I usually prefer second-season chasers as they tend to be on the steepest curves but this renewal is a bit shy on them. Saphir Du Rheu, currently off 163, might be a future Gold Cup winner but he’s unlikely to be as good as Big Buck’s who tipped up at the last when in with a chance in this race off 153. Saphir Du Rheu will probably need to be a 173+ horse to have a chance in this. He might be that good but I wouldn’t be prepared to pay good money to find out, not at twice his price.

If In Doubt is a sexy second-season one but I have genuine concerns about his jumping. I have no doubts about his engine or ability but they need to be able to jump at speed in this race and I can’t be with him at single-figure odds, especially when it was a race like the Midlands National that was mentioned for him last season. I prefer stable companion Fingal Bay who was heavily backed for this last year into 5/1 and travelled well through the race before breaking a blood vessel. He’s 9lbs lower here and nearly three times the price. He has to be a bet.

Smad Place appears preferred to Ned Stark, a tip in itself, and I expect a very big run from him but 6/1 is skinny if the older horses run their races.

Houblon Des Obeaux and The Giant Bolster should set the standard for the form. I imagine they’ll both be off for their lives but will find a few too good. But which few?

The one that’s disappeared off the radar is Splash Of Ginge (50/1). He was plotted up to win the Schweppes (33/1) as a hurdler and may well have been plotted up for this. He went up to 153 for winning the big handicap chase (2m5f) on New Year’s day at Cheltenham but the Grand National has been mentioned in dispatches. He’s unexposed as a stayer and is worth a pop each-way at the long odds.


Obviously one or two of the details are now out of date (eg BW's price) and SOG is on Tom Segal's radar but the rest of it stands pretty much as was. I backed Fingal Bay today but will give the biggest cheer if Bobs Worth wins.
 
Fantastic from Smad Place
I've well and truly done my stones today but the winner there is to applauded, Excellent performance.
 
great performance. fair enough to put him in the gold cup conversation now but had to lol @ simon holt making the desert orchid comparisons cos he's a grey.
 
I was at kempton and I just think seeing live resonates more. He was simply a diffferent rejuvenated horse that day. Had a good bet today
 
Looking at the race again, it really is a super spectacle and a super performance by the winner. Take him out and you couldn't argue much with the result.

It leaves a very intriguing question: would Coneygree have taken Smad Place out of his comfort zone?

Smad Place was always a good horse but simply looks so much better this season.
 
Decent performance by runner up to come through the field the way he did.
WPM always makes the point that a lot of these top staying handicaps are lost with a poor start; certainly the case with Bobs Worth and this fellow but hats off to the winner.
Could Coneygree have given him 20lbs or so on that performance ?
If so he is a monster.
 
Were this and the Long Distance Hurdle the final two nails in the coffin for the World Hurdle form? It didn't look good at the time but now looks a shocking race.
 
The WH form is rock solid with a 165-170 performance by Cole Harden and the season has just began for some horses. I wouldn't worry although form do gets lost, horses don't run to the same mark every single race/season. It does make the division more interesting with 2 top novices so competitive now in open company.
 
Desert Orchid said:
In that case they should train him for the National. He'd get in off 165 max and would be very hard to beat.
Click to expand...

I agree, if he can jump like the way he did at the weekend he'd have no problem round Aintree.
Alan King did say in his post race interview though that there's no way the owners would run him there.
 
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Aintree is now like Catford dog track in terms of a jumping test, so no need for connections to worry about their "family pet" (or however they refer to Smad Place) causing himself a mischief. He'd be hard to catch bowling-along out front.
 
systematic destruction of Grand National in the last few years, easier fences, easier weights by the handicappers, public is aware of it and doesn't holds the winner in that much respect like before, now changing of times to suit a television channel, what is going on with Aintree management ?!
 
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