The Leger

I was at the yard on Wednesday - RB was very bullish about his prospects next week and said if she ran well she'd go for the Leger. There was nothing at all wrong with her then - she looked great - but she apparently had a setback Friday morning on the gallops. RB was probably in Deauville by then if following his intended plans for the week. Feel really sorry for all concerned - he was so excited by her, and prospects for the rest of her season - he also said Deauville was his favourite two days of the year. Bet this setback has put a damper on that! Bummer.
 
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Pakti bubble well and truely burst there. I said after his win in the Vase that his price for the Leger was too short. He hung a bit today but alot of that was simply because they were going much too fast for him...Winston was not happy with him a long way out.
 
Think you're very wrong Galileo.

Patkai has a hanging head carriage, as he needs a galloping track. I know pretty much everyone I knew was laying him today as Goodwood was never going to suit him. He also despite winning at Ascot, needs cut in the ground as do many Indian Ridge's. The yard thought he would run well here but knew he was a bit short having been stiff after Ascot and has only had one main gallop. I backed the 2nd ew, as I wouldn't back Patkai round Goodwood. He needs a long straight and cut, and he is a very nice horse. Now is the time to back him for the Leger, he was never going to win round Goodwood, he's not that type of horse.
 
He was woefully one paced Chris...back him all you like for the Leger (strange that you would back a horse now after its run on suitable ground and on the wrong track without knowing how the horse has come out of the race) but it will be a poor edition if he wins it.
 
Patkai was in need of the run today, he was sore after Ascot having hated the fast ground, class saw him through. Today was about getting a pipe opener into him.

He needs a solid pace on easy ground and a nice long straight, all of which you get at Doncaster.

Look at the horses run in a handicap at Chester at the start of the season, it was there for all to see round tracks don't suit him. Goodwood is too up and down for him and for me the ground at Goodwood is not good to soft it looked to be riding quick quick, no kickback.

Patkai has had 1 serious gallop since Ascot and only 3 breeze's. His piece of work was with Warringah as well and he was upsides nicely. He will be stepped up from now, and the aim has always been the Leger. You don't have a horse 110% for a trial, if you do you won't win the race you aim at.
 
Patkai
no surprise for me to see him so well beaten today, he is a 2m4f hors, could be interesting for hdls,


to win a St Leger you need the class aat 12f and he is not that kind horse.



The winner , good ride in front and a boost to the form of the GP. Paris,
what a pity Montmartre is injured, would have have canter in the Arc.
 
His 2 best runs have come on good to firm and firm ground. Infact they are the only times he has travelled smoothly in his races. To suggest he wants give in the ground is just plain wrong, Indian Ridge or no Indian Ridge.
 
Sorry, have I missed something... (Montmartre? I knew he was a bit stiff). Definitely injured?
 
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Galileo said:
He was woefully one paced Chris...back him all you like for the Leger (strange that you would back a horse now after its run on suitable ground and on the wrong track without knowing how the horse has come out of the race) but it will be a poor edition if he wins it.
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Interesting you say he is woefully one paced. How many quick horses win the Leger. Normally its won by potential Cup horses. That is what Patkai is.
 
That is fair enough, if he had been finishing nicely without been knocked around I could see where your coming from.

But he was stuffed, asked plenty of questions from a long way out and carried his head awkwardly the whole way...that is not an ideal trial in my opinion...far from it.
 
davidjohnson said:
His 2 best runs have come on good to firm and firm ground. Infact they are the only times he has travelled smoothly in his races. To suggest he wants give in the ground is just plain wrong, Indian Ridge or no Indian Ridge.
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The fact one was a handicap and the other was a poor excuse of a group 3 doesn't count no ????

Also won his maiden impressively on soft ground and having been half fit he was a good 3rd over the wrong trip on soft ground at Newbury and the winner of that race is no slouch either.

I don't know what race you watched at Haydock as well as he wasn't travelling, nor was he travelling at Chester. Both on a faster surface. He has an abundance of stamina and he will outstay them at Donny, a 5 runner tactical race on an unsuitable course is no way to judge a horse. He was preped for a trial in the Voltigeur which is on a left handed, flat galloping track. Completely the opposite to Goodwood. Had he been lining up in the Gordon Stakes I would look into this performance. Also the horse lugs left in his races, so going right handed won't suit. He won't need to worry about that going left handed next time.
 
A tactical race at an undulating track like Goodwood was always unlikely to suit Patkai. That said, I would be surprised if there aren't a few better at Doncaster.

Easy to look back now, but he was a ridiculous price after his Ascot win.
 
I would have alot of the Derby also rans, the two fillys Unsung Heroine and Look Here plus even the likes of Conduit.

Poor excuse for a Group 3.....my point exactly...so what piece of form suggests he is a Leger contender?
 
Agree that the horse didn't travel at Chester but I thought you said that was because he doesn't like round tracks. I'm very happy with my original assertion as to how the horse travelled at Haydock. Particularly so as I was hoping to back him in-running based on what he'd done at Newbury (never travelled, finished well) and Chester (ditto). I'm pretty sure his i/r odds were never much above 3.1.

And whether one was a handicap and one was weak group 3 - well no it doesn't count as it's an irrelevance, those 2 runs are clearly his 2 best efforts, no matter what grade of race they were achieved in.
 
Galileo said:
I would have alot of the Derby also rans, the two fillys Unsung Heroine and Look Here plus even the likes of Conduit.

Poor excuse for a Group 3.....my point exactly...so what piece of form suggests he is a Leger contender?
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Form doesn't say Leger performer I would agree at that, but I don't think he has been in a race to accurately say he isn't.

With him you know he stay's, something very few others have proven. Also he clearly shows a course like Doncaster will suit and also knowing he was nowhere near 100% here today, to run within 3l when jockey barely moved on him in the final furlong is not bad.

The jockey may say there is ease in the ground, but I feel dead would probably be more appropiate. That can be backed up on that last race, nothing came off the pace.

Over 10f on the watered gallop, Patkai has done his best work, thats my basis of him being better with cut. Sir Michael Stoute doesn't work him on the limekilns or racecourse side when its quick, he'll work him on the Al Bahathri. Yet when theres rain he'll work him on the watered gallop, which always rides on the slow side.

Also they were confident he would win Tuesday, but from Wednesday onwards there was no confidence about him going to Goodwood, but every horse needs a prep run.
 
chrisbeekracing said:
Form doesn't say Leger performer I would agree at that, but I don't think he has been in a race to accurately say he isn't.

With him you know he stay's, something very few others have proven. Also he clearly shows a course like Doncaster will suit and also knowing he was nowhere near 100% here today, to run within 3l when jockey barely moved on him in the final furlong is not bad.

The jockey may say there is ease in the ground, but I feel dead would probably be more appropiate. That can be backed up on that last race, nothing came off the pace.

Over 10f on the watered gallop, Patkai has done his best work, thats my basis of him being better with cut. Sir Michael Stoute doesn't work him on the limekilns or racecourse side when its quick, he'll work him on the Al Bahathri. Yet when theres rain he'll work him on the watered gallop, which always rides on the slow side.

Also they were confident he would win Tuesday, but from Wednesday onwards there was no confidence about him going to Goodwood, but every horse needs a prep run.
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I would be interested to know what horses you think are doubtful stayers...while they have their stamina to prove the ones I mentioned earlier are guaranteed to get the trip in my opinion.

Ladbrokes have taken Pakti out of their betting.
 
I see Ladbrokes have put Centennial in at 4/1 favourite. Looks a complete overreaction (much like the market reaction to Patkai after the Queen's Vase actually). Very much had the run of the race today, setting a moderate gallop. On today's form alone he's no 4/1 shot; when you add in the fact he still has to prove he stays the Leger trip (a muddling mile and a half round Goodwood hardly answers that question), 4's is just ridiculous IMO.
 
I wouldn't say anything in particular Galileo, but I wouldn't confidently say a horse stays or doesn't stay until it runs over that trip or perhaps further.

You can't say a horse stays unless it runs over the trip. I've seen strong finishers over 7f, and you hear people say it wants a mile, but over a mile it doesn't get the final 100yds.

You can't effectively say a horse stays until it tries a trip.

More importantly, has anyone noticed first race Goodwood, winner and 2nd, 1st and 2nd throughout. 2nd race winner and second were also 1st and 2nd throughout, suggesting horses are not coming off the pace which suggests the ground is dead. This could suggest another reason why Patkai failed to pick up.

For me Dubai's Touch will lead Bankable in the next, Bankable will go on from 2f out and take 2 - 3l out of Raven's Pass and I don't think the gap will get much smaller. Raven's Pass is class but on dead ground giving a horse a head start who handles this ground could be very dangerous, especially when his main rival stays further than this trip and is a course and distance winner, an impressive one at that. Wrong thread but I've had a big ew on Bankable at 7/2 and had a small saver ew on Dubai's Touch.
 
Great ride from Fortune, mut say Bankable would have only been beat 2l but for Jimmy's ease in the final 20yds, but I actually think thats a great run from Bankable and he certainly looks a lovely horse, hopefully the QE11 could beckon. That run would have put him 3rd in the Sussex.
 
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