Gamla Stan
At the Start
- Joined
- Aug 19, 2005
- Messages
- 4,337
Placing in a Group One is a long way ahead of placing in a handicap surely?
The Leger
- Thread starter Guest_
- Start date
Placing in a Group One is a long way ahead of placing in a handicap surely?
Not necessarily.
Bar the Bull
At the Start
Ardross has a blind spot for Cecil.
Father Time is shite.
Father Time is shite.
A blind spot that is proving quite profitable this year . Father Time much the best run was off a fast pace in the KEVII - hence I think he will improve a good deal for the longer trip and believe that he was inconvenienced by the slow pace and fast ground at York . HRAC doesn't run horses in classics without a chance .
Well he sounded bullish when interviewed, and credit to PC-H for acknowkedging the role of the owner in stepping the horse up too. I can think of a few trainers who would try and take some reflected glory for the decision, but PC-H was more than happy to say it was the owners idea.
I still do not understand what Bell and the owners are up to with Sariska - she would stay the Leger trip standing on her head and would win it comfortably. I cannot see her being better than third or fourth in the Arc unless it becomes a bog .
She would have a very strong chance in the Leger I'd agree. If she gets her ground she could still run a big race in the Arc though. I would have found it a tough call.
For the first time ever I’m starring at a ‘wipe out’ in the English Classics, and I suppose that it was inevitable that this day would dawn eventually. Historically the guineas have been by far my most successful races, where as the Oaks and Leger have been the two veritable graveyards for me. Now at face value this may seem strange given that a quick gander at the SP’s and position of the winners in the market suggests that these are the two easier races to solve. It’s probably quite typical of me though. I frequently fall for the trap of ‘trying too hard’, or to put it another way, I immerse myself in the minutiae of detail often trying to unearth an angle that basically isn’t there. All too frequently the percentage call has invariably been to keep it simple and not to look beyond the obvious (or front 3 in the betting). So it was a degree of trepidation that I find myself once again falling for something a little bit more left field at a double-figure price.
The Leger has frequently gone to a horse that possesses a hint of class whilst falling just short of the required ‘top-drawer’ mark. You often hear the phrase ‘Leger type’ but then you often hear a lot of throw-away phrases in racing I suppose. The Leger however does seem to follow a stronger preparation pattern than most races. A mid-season target of a Derby followed by the Edward VII, and a prep in either the Gordon Stakes or Great Voltigeur. If you’d confined yourself thus, you wouldn’t be too far away most years. Of the last 10 winners only Conduit and Bollin Eric ducked a Derby assignment, where as only Scorpion missed the Gordon or Voltigeur gig.
Epsom provided, Lucarno* , Sixties Icon*, Rule of Law, and Brian Boru
The Curragh provided Scorpion, and Mutafaweq*
And Chantily gave us Milan and Millenary
Conduit and Bollin Eric both took in the Edward VII (marked with a *) so even though they missed a Derby assignment, they qualified on the back-up requirement. Of the market notables only ‘Changingoftheguard’ and ‘Mastery’ look to be out on this filter.
The prep run filter of the ‘Gordon’ or ‘Voltigeur’ would also eliminate the same two horses above, but in addition it ‘takes down’ Kite Wood’, ‘Age of Aquarius’ and Mourayan’. For those who like race preparation therefore, you’d be looking at ‘Father Time’ as the best fit being the only runner on an Edward VII and Voltigeur schedule, even though he’s swerved ‘a Derby’.
The exchanges seem to be suggesting that ‘Manifest’ will be supplemented for Henry Cecil and Khalid Abdulla and one can’t help but feel that this has to be seen as a vote of less confidence in ‘Father Time’? The number of winners of British classic that were foaled in May you can count on one hand. Indeed, a quick spin at the last 10 years shows an exclusive February to March club for the Leger with only Millenary breaking the sequence as an April foal. It could be that this is a late maturing type who’s come right just in a nick of time, but he’s only recently just won his facile maiden and will be lacking for experience having had just the 2 outings.
He was beaten on his debut in a slow race where he earned a poor 66.14 from me. Now as I’ve said before, a very slow figure isn’t necessarily a problem, provided you win. It does after all suggest you have a turn of foot if nothing else, as more often than not this is how you’ve settled the argument in order to record a slow winning time. I’m not sure however, that even on debut, having to give second best to Blizzard Blues would be a recommendation of a horse that was only about 10 weeks away from winning a Leger. He made no mistake next time out however, and won his maiden registering another modest rating of 86.82p. He did this at a canter though and put his pursuers to the sword by 19L’s. This would give the runner up a theoretical figure of 67.82 (no different to Manifest’s debut). These are still maidens at 3yo’s in August let’s not forget though!!! and as such they wouldn’t normally provide a glowing reference at this point in their respective careers. The runner up’s figure suggests we’re talking about horses no better than 0-75 handicappers. He’d be expected to win by this margin if he entertained any serious aspirations, and it’s too much of a leap of faith to contemplate for me. Visually impressive maidens or novices tend to get caught out the first time they’re exposed to a more gruelling pace, and one can’t help but wonder what he’s really learned from this experience. He must be showing well on the gallops to be considered, and one assumes he must be being judged alongside Father Time? But there’s a world of difference between the two disciplines of gallops and racecourse. I’ve seen 20L’s worth of improvement from maidens to pattern class in 2yo’s frequently enough to know it can happen, but he’s got to pretty well do it again having already done 20L’s once between his first and second run. To take a hand in this he’s got to find 60L’s of improvement at 14F’s from his debut which is about 46Ibs in the space of 10 weeks. Now in fairness he’s probably made significant progress already on his second run, (I think he has about 25L’s to find) but it isn’t going to happen is it? Surely?
I haven’t left the idea of the prep window entirely though, and an exhaustive spin through the race results of the last 10 years quickly shows us that the Voltigeur is the race to follow having provided 6 of the last 10 winners to the ‘Gordon’s ‘ 3. The question I’m posing though is, is it necessary to run in these two specific races? Or is it necessary to have a decent run during the period 25-39 days? This window provides 9 of the 10 winners, with only Scorpion breaking the sequence having used the Gp du Paris. Both the York and Goodwood races are well represented in most years, so it isn’t too surprising to see them figure so prominently (although one has to concede that, ‘figure’ is an under-statement, and that ‘dominate’ wouldn’t be an unfair description).
This year we seem to have a bevy of interlopers though;
Kite Wood – Geoffrey Freer
Mourayan – Ballyroan
Age of Aquarius – Gp du Paris
Changingoftheguard – Ebor
The evidence base is much smaller for all these races.
Galient took in the Freer before finishing last to Sixties Icon. Let’s Try Again managed 7th to Brian Boru, where as Mr Combustible managed a place when finishing third Milan.
The Ballyroan is a Gp3 and is best represented by Chimes at Midnight who also managed third to Millenary, where as Washington Irving and Rostrpovitch took it in before finishing 6th and 7th.
Aiden O’Brien seems to have been using the Gp du Paris in recent years with Age of Aquarius striving to emulate Scorpion, albeit that Alessandro Volta, Mountain and Bashkirov have all failed to land a blow since 2005 going the same route.
Changingoftheguard becomes the latest Ballydoyle inmate to try and improve on Honolulu and Mikado’s 3rd and 5th having both placed in the Ebor by way of prep, it doesn’t seem to be a fantastical route to explore.
At this stage I’m not necessarily persuaded to simply stick to the latest renewals of the Gordon and Voltigeur and work back from there. In any event, with only Tactic representing the Gordon Stakes, then the pressure is on the Voltigeur to uphold the established order, and I’m more inclined to dip back to the mid-season targets for more substantive clues and then work forward.
The ‘Derby’ is only represented by the two horses; Age of Aquarius and Kite Wood. As market leaders though, they’d be more than entitled to a bit of respect. The Irish event is represented by Mourayan, and for this part of the hypothesis at least, I’ll confine my considerations to this trio.
Fame and Glory and to a lesser extent Golden Sword would seem to be the obvious horses to try and tie the two races together. Fame and Glory features quite prominently in Mourayan’s profile having beaten him in 3 runnings this year.
Ballysax – 1.25L’s into third
Derrinstown – 5L’s into second
Irish Derby – 6L’s into third
The gap is widening with each run, but I’m much more inclined to attribute this to Fame and Glory’s development rather than any regression in Mourayan. I’m not sure a seriously regressive horse could really come third in an Irish Derby anyway (they can come fourth mind you!!! – but then that was distant fourth with Mourayan beating Masterofthehorse 10L’s in his own right).
If we use Fame and Glory as the benchmark, then Mourayan has got nearer to him at the Curragh than the other two did at Epsom. If we take the most recent evidence of the Irish Derby then he was beaten by Fame and Glory 6L’s and Golden Sword 1L. At Epsom Age Aquarius was beaten by the same couple 7L’s and 6.5L, where as Kite Wood was 11.5L’s and 11L’s back. This would surprisingly perhaps, give Mourayan a theoretical advantage through Fame and Glory of;
1.0 Age of Aquarius
5.5 Kite Wood
And through Golden Sword of;
5.5 Age of Aquarius
10 Kite Wood
It’s tempting to deduce from this that Golden Sword hasn’t run his race at the Curragh (a bit harsh on a horse that finished second!!! And more inclined to suggest that Fame and Glory improved for having the race run to suit). Golden Sword subsequently under-performed NTO in the King George, but this could owe something to the fact the Curragh left a mark. The Irish Derby was run at a much more punishing pace than the English equivilant and one would have thought that this was probably responsible for the runners being more strung out (Masterofthehorse finished 4th some 16L’s back). So before climbing aboard Mourayan we’d probably need to be satisfied that like the Derby 3rd and 4th (Golden Sword and Masterofthehorse) the Curragh hasn’t necessarily bottomed him a bit, but more of that later.
The first question to answer I suppose is just what have Age of Aquarius and Kite Wood done subsequently to justify support over Mourayan, as he should be right alongside them on the evidence of the mile and a half classics, and do their achievements stand up?. Well I suppose you might accord the Grand Prix du Paris a quasi-classic status now that the Prix Jockey Club has been dropped to 10.5F’s and Age of Aquarius has chased home Cavalryman. The strength of the form isn’t really known. Only third placed ‘Mastery’ has run since and he was an extending 4.5L’s adrift off the yet to be confirmed ‘Monitor Closely’ in the much vaunted Voltigeur, which would give the Peter Chapple-Hyham horse a 2.5L verdict over Age of Aquarius (FWIW). It’s still the nearest that any runner has come to winning a Gp1 though and the stable will always merit respect.
The case for Kite Wood is perhaps a little bit more puzzling. One gets the impression that the racing press have been desperate to announce the resurgence of Godolphin, but a few minor group races and an upturn in general form is a long way from returning them to the halcyon days of 2005. I expect them to be the subject of a degree of hype though in the next few weeks with the media over-stating the signs of a recovery in their fortunes, which hopefully might help keep the price low.
Kite Wood won the Gp3 Bahrain Trophy and handed out a 2.5L hammering of Tactic in the process!!! wow. The latter is a 40/1 outsider who subsequently went on to run 4L’s off Harbinger in the ‘Gordon Stakes’ the former is the 5/2 favourite. On such small margins things hang. Tactic would be on similar level to Montaff and Urban Poet on their Goodwood running, which wouldn’t necessarily make Kite Woods Newmarket win that outstanding, and was broadly in the territory you’d expect it to be based on their Derby running. Harbinger had never run a fast time and I always felt he’d be vulnerable when stretched, although he went so badly askew in the Voltigeur that one has to look elsewhere for reasons. In any event, the Bahrain Trophy was pretty run of the mill fare and Kite Woods chances are seemingly more wrapped up in a facile Geoffrey Freer. Now in fairness he did run a Group 1 time with me when winning this (albeit without an extra 6Ibs on his back which he’d be expected to shoulder at Donny). Once this additional ballast is added and adjusted to 14F’s his rating drops to 99.14 (Group 2), which is after all what the Geoffrey Freer is, and so far as we can establish, where the horse probably is too. He’s won Gp 2s and 3’s but never finished in the top half of a Gp1.
At Newbury he was pretty well left to his own devices, and came home 3.5L’s ahead of Halicarnassus. It’s a few year though since Mick Channon’s redoubtable ‘wonder of the world’ has been a threat. Two handicaps wins at Nad Al Sheba and Ripon wouldn’t be the best endorsement for his last 29 attempts, and his last win of significance was 2 years ago. Even at his prime Halicarnassus was able to land a couple of Gp3’s, and wasn’t really entitled to win the Gp2 Freer therefore. That he came second, and got within 3.5L’s of Kite Wood is more likely to worry me a bit than send me out to snaffle the 5/2. Quite apart from holding a direct verdict over the Godolphin runner, of the two market leaders, I find the claims Age of Aquarius through the Longchamp run more persuasive than those of the Geoffrey Freer.
The third horse in this triumphrate of Derby runners is Mourayan of course, and at face value his 1.25 defeat in a Gp3 after the Curragh wouldn’t read as well as Kite Woods win in a Gp2. There might be a more appropriate way of looking at this though?, and that involves abandoning the races assignation for the time being, and looking at the respective winners and runners up. What would you regard as the better performance? A 3.5L defeat of Halicarnassus or finishing 1.25L’s away from Profound Beauty? Would Profound Beauty be expected to beat Halicarnassus by more than 4.75L’s? Both are older horses, and one of them can only boast a Ripon handicap win from 11 starts this term. The other finished no more than 2.5L’s away in last year’s Gp1 Melbourne Gold Cup and shows all the signs so far of having retained her enthusiasm to try and go a little bit better in November. Profound Beauty has won all 3 of her assignments at Gp3 and listed class in 2009 so would hardly be regarded as on the downgrade. The only worry was that Mourayan got first run on Profound Beauty at Leopardstown and went to the lead a furlong from home, before being gathered in with 150yds to go. Having said that, he only lost by 1.25L’s so wouldn’t necessarily have emptied, and had the Gp3 winner, (Shreyas) 5L’s back in third. It’s probably more sensible to attribute this result to the ability of Profound Beauty. It might also provide some encouragement that despite being a beaten favourite, Mourayan didn’t do a Golden Sword or Masterofthehorse after the exertions of the Curragh at the hands of Fame and Glory. Whether he’ll stay the extra 2F’s at Town Moor is an issue, as you don’t normally like to back horses in staying races that get pegged back having hit the front 1 furlong out, but then a fast run Curragh at a mile and a half will ride more like 13F’s at Doncaster already, and his third to Fame & Glory wouldn’t suggest he was empty. Indeed Mourayan’s form ties in very closely with Fame and Glory’s. There’s a silly logic we often hear in racing that runs something along the lines of “if it wasn’t for XXXX then YYYY would be” etc.
It almost starts with Sea The Stars;
“If it wasn’t for Sea The Stars then Fame and Glory would be a dual Derby winner”.
If you follow this ‘achievement through convenient omission’ down the food chain then Mourayan can invoke the same disingenuous logic.
“If it wasn’t for Fame and Glory then Mourayan would be a Derrinstown winner and a Ballysax and Irish Derby runner up”.
It can sometimes help us frame a sense of perspective, but it does of course ignore something quite critical (the presence of the XXXX horse!!!) which does render the logic sort of irrelevant bordering on redundant. It’s from the same stable as “if it were trained by anyone else, (usually meaning AOB) it would be double the price” – which again overlooks the fact it isn’t trained by anyone else!!!
The only other two left to give me cause for concern are Changingofthegurad and Monitor Closely. The latter needs to be supplemented but looks like being so according to the exchanges. He tries to complete the unlikely journey of Guineas to Leger passed up by Sea The Stars and it certainly looks like one of the more enterprising raids. The record of Voltigeur winners suggests that he should attempt it, though one has to wonder how many supplemented horses actually win English Classics? (Kris Kin?) or how many Guineas runners end up winning Legers in the same year?.
This one does look unusual though, as it’s not so much the ability that was questioned, and therefore it’s not necessarily a case of something that wasn’t considered good enough suddenly announcing that it might be, and thus an after-thought in the absence of anything else, but more a question of trip. In both the Hampton Court and City of York he was noted as “running on same pace” when finishing with merit rather than distinction at 10F’s. Perhaps the clue was there that a step up was needed (I spotted it, but inexplicably decided not to take the 28/1 – biggest howler of the year so far). The step up in trip duly worked the oracle, and with Jimmy Fortune seemingly kidding the field in the Voltigeur he was able to use his tactical speed at the business-end and pretty well stick a good (and increasing ) margin of 4L’s and 5.75L’s on Mastery and Father Time. It seems to have been enough to send Henry Cecil into re-think mode anyway. Bollin Eric and Mutafaweq came 3rd and 4th in a Voltigeur, but the likes of Lucarno, Rule of Law, Brian Boru and Milan suggest a first two is where you need to be, and that’s before you take the likes of non-participants such as Youmzain into account.
Monitor Closely probably has been running at the wrong trip but that’s not to say that 14F’s is the optimum one either. The presence of Ballydoyle pacemakers isn’t going to help his cause, and one suspects that he won’t be allowed to run the race the way he did the Voltigeur. It’s difficult to suggest that he completely stole a race, but you can’t help wondering how much of it was down to Jimmy Fortune. He’s put up a consistent set of figures with me all season which suggests he’s just short of Gp1, but he still seems to be improving, albeit gradually now.
Now that serves as a useful prompt to take a look at my own ratings I’m afraid;
Levelled off at 9.0
Sariska = 104.41 on +1.46 @ 12F (Oaks)
Mourayan = 104.29 on +1.00 @ 12F (Irish Derby)
Mourayan = 103.56~ on +1.93 @ 12F (Ballyroan)
Age of Aquarius = 99.65~ on +3.89 @ 12F (Gp du Paris)
Kite Wood = 99.14 on +1.15 @ 13.5F (Geoffrey Freer)
Changingoftheguard = 98.55 on +2.51 (could be +4.97 headwind) @ 14F (Ebor)
Mourayan = 98.00 (alternative figure to 103.56)
Mastery = 97.65~ on +3.89 @ 12F (Gp du Paris)
Mourayan = 97.29 on +0.25 @ 10F (Ballysax)
Monitor Closely = 96.29 on +3.04 @10F (Hampton Ct)
Mourayan = 95.46 on +2.64 @ 10F (Derrinstown)
Monitor Closely = 95.01 on +1.82 @ 8F (2000 Gns)
Monitor Closely = 93.49 on -0.56 (likely to be nearer G/F due to headwind) @ 10F Nmk
Monitor Closely = 92.82 on +3.62 @ 12F (Voltigeur)
Chaningingoftheguard = 92.41 on +7.36 @ 13F (Down Royal)
Kite Wood = 92.29 on +2.08 @ 13F (Bahrain Trophy)
Father Time = 92.28 on +4.93 @12F (Edward VII)
Monitor Closely = 92.11 on +1.07 @ 10.5F (Dante)
Kite Wood = 92.08 on +1.07 @ 10.5F (Dante)
Father Time = 91.10 on +0.27 @ 10F (Nmk Listed)
Mastery = 88.82 on +3.62 @ 12F (Voltigeur)
Changingoftheguard = 87.83 on +3.42 @10F (Navan Mdn)
Father Time = 87.07 on +3.62 @ 12F (Voltigeur)
Manifest = 86.82 on -0.12 @12F (Nmk Mdn)
Age of Aquarius = 84.48 on +2.39 @12F (Derby)
Kite Wood = 79.73 on +2.39 @12F (Derby
Mastery = 78.25 on +4.93 @ 16F (Queens Vase)
Manifest = 66.14 on +3.25 @12F (Nmk Mdn)
I’ve given up trying to rate the Lingfield Trial won by Age of Aquarius as I’m convinced the race distance was longer than advertised. In a similar vein I’m equally convinced that the race distance at Down Royal won by Changingoftheguard was significantly shorter than advertised, although I’m more confident I can get a handle on that one. The Grand Prix Du Paris carries a warning too, as there aren’t enough standard times (thanks to the RP mysteriously downgrading their coverage) for me to be happy to work off. It would be dangerous to rely on the Derby for an indication of AoA too, as that race wasn’t run at a true pace, and perhaps AoA being out-sprinted and disappointing slightly, might need to be seen in the context of the Leger? It’s quite possible that stayers like AoA or Kite Wood were even more inconvenienced by the race than some of those higher profile casualties nearer the front? Mourayan’s second rating in the Ballyroan is slightly questionable due to the spread of adjusted times. What this means is that setting variance is more problematic than normal and a bit hit and miss, with a higher margin for error. I could use a more punitive method to bring him out at 98.00 (the Rail Link method) but then he’d be the only horse in the sample who would have been subjected to this more searching examination, which is a bit unfair.
Both the Derby and Voltigeur look slow and you can only really use finishing positions as an indication of class I suppose. I don’t hold a figure for the Gp2 ‘City of York’ but would be slightly concerned that despite making a steady advance on the high 90’s from a base of 92 at the start of the season, Monitor Closely has been making small incremental increases and has peppered the mid 90’s and pushed his performance boundary out to 96 now. I’m guessing he’s capable of 97.5 maximum, which wouldn’t normally be enough. His chance improves with a slow pace, but you’d have to think that Aiden O’Brien will kybosh that.
Father Time doesn’t have the figures to suggest he can win a hard run race in a fast time at this trip, and neither does Manifest. Mastery’s chance seemingly lies with me being right about a dubious Gp Du Paris figure, but the Vase rarely produces anything other than plodders and I can’t see him beating Kite Wood anyway, nor do I have any good reason to think he’ll reverse Voltigeur form, which I’m still not convinced is the usual advert for this race that it normally is.
Changingoftheguard, like Honolulu before him, represents the fly in the ointment, and I can actually see him running on quite strongly. I thought I had a decent handle on him through this misleading run at Down Royal, but have to concede that all things being equal he should probably be judged as an Ebor winner. My feeling is that he’s going to find one too good, but will make the frame.
Last year Conduit was a trends buster. He didn’t run in a Derby and was returned 8/1 fifth choice making him the biggest winner of the last 10 years. Favourites have won 6 of the last 10 renewals, and 8 of the last 10 have gone to one of the front two in the market. I’d actually expect AoA to displace Kite Wood during the run up to the race, but that’s a hunch as much as anything. This has all the classic hallmarks of another ‘over-thought out’ disaster really, when the blindingly obvious should have been pursued.
At this stage though, I’m siding with the idea of value about what is probably an Oxxy-mourayan!!! Even the 3/1 to place has to be better than either AoA or Kite Wood at the same to win. The trends killer of course is the lack of a win this season, although his;
3, 2, 3, 2 is close enough to Bollin Eric’s 3, 2, 2, 3, 3 but it wouldn’t be a percentage call admittedly, just an indication that the task is tough rather than unprecedented. I’ve tried to erase Fame and Glory from my thinking and assess Mourayan thus, but I know that’s wrong!!! Then I hit on another idea.
Since 1986, 52% of the winners names began with either the letter ‘S’ or ‘M’!!! There’s no ‘S’s in the field this year and Mourayan looks to be the pick of the ‘M’s, and in any event with a strike rate of 28% they are the preferred choice. Changingoftheguard and Age of Aquarius to follow him home
The Leger has frequently gone to a horse that possesses a hint of class whilst falling just short of the required ‘top-drawer’ mark. You often hear the phrase ‘Leger type’ but then you often hear a lot of throw-away phrases in racing I suppose. The Leger however does seem to follow a stronger preparation pattern than most races. A mid-season target of a Derby followed by the Edward VII, and a prep in either the Gordon Stakes or Great Voltigeur. If you’d confined yourself thus, you wouldn’t be too far away most years. Of the last 10 winners only Conduit and Bollin Eric ducked a Derby assignment, where as only Scorpion missed the Gordon or Voltigeur gig.
Epsom provided, Lucarno* , Sixties Icon*, Rule of Law, and Brian Boru
The Curragh provided Scorpion, and Mutafaweq*
And Chantily gave us Milan and Millenary
Conduit and Bollin Eric both took in the Edward VII (marked with a *) so even though they missed a Derby assignment, they qualified on the back-up requirement. Of the market notables only ‘Changingoftheguard’ and ‘Mastery’ look to be out on this filter.
The prep run filter of the ‘Gordon’ or ‘Voltigeur’ would also eliminate the same two horses above, but in addition it ‘takes down’ Kite Wood’, ‘Age of Aquarius’ and Mourayan’. For those who like race preparation therefore, you’d be looking at ‘Father Time’ as the best fit being the only runner on an Edward VII and Voltigeur schedule, even though he’s swerved ‘a Derby’.
The exchanges seem to be suggesting that ‘Manifest’ will be supplemented for Henry Cecil and Khalid Abdulla and one can’t help but feel that this has to be seen as a vote of less confidence in ‘Father Time’? The number of winners of British classic that were foaled in May you can count on one hand. Indeed, a quick spin at the last 10 years shows an exclusive February to March club for the Leger with only Millenary breaking the sequence as an April foal. It could be that this is a late maturing type who’s come right just in a nick of time, but he’s only recently just won his facile maiden and will be lacking for experience having had just the 2 outings.
He was beaten on his debut in a slow race where he earned a poor 66.14 from me. Now as I’ve said before, a very slow figure isn’t necessarily a problem, provided you win. It does after all suggest you have a turn of foot if nothing else, as more often than not this is how you’ve settled the argument in order to record a slow winning time. I’m not sure however, that even on debut, having to give second best to Blizzard Blues would be a recommendation of a horse that was only about 10 weeks away from winning a Leger. He made no mistake next time out however, and won his maiden registering another modest rating of 86.82p. He did this at a canter though and put his pursuers to the sword by 19L’s. This would give the runner up a theoretical figure of 67.82 (no different to Manifest’s debut). These are still maidens at 3yo’s in August let’s not forget though!!! and as such they wouldn’t normally provide a glowing reference at this point in their respective careers. The runner up’s figure suggests we’re talking about horses no better than 0-75 handicappers. He’d be expected to win by this margin if he entertained any serious aspirations, and it’s too much of a leap of faith to contemplate for me. Visually impressive maidens or novices tend to get caught out the first time they’re exposed to a more gruelling pace, and one can’t help but wonder what he’s really learned from this experience. He must be showing well on the gallops to be considered, and one assumes he must be being judged alongside Father Time? But there’s a world of difference between the two disciplines of gallops and racecourse. I’ve seen 20L’s worth of improvement from maidens to pattern class in 2yo’s frequently enough to know it can happen, but he’s got to pretty well do it again having already done 20L’s once between his first and second run. To take a hand in this he’s got to find 60L’s of improvement at 14F’s from his debut which is about 46Ibs in the space of 10 weeks. Now in fairness he’s probably made significant progress already on his second run, (I think he has about 25L’s to find) but it isn’t going to happen is it? Surely?
I haven’t left the idea of the prep window entirely though, and an exhaustive spin through the race results of the last 10 years quickly shows us that the Voltigeur is the race to follow having provided 6 of the last 10 winners to the ‘Gordon’s ‘ 3. The question I’m posing though is, is it necessary to run in these two specific races? Or is it necessary to have a decent run during the period 25-39 days? This window provides 9 of the 10 winners, with only Scorpion breaking the sequence having used the Gp du Paris. Both the York and Goodwood races are well represented in most years, so it isn’t too surprising to see them figure so prominently (although one has to concede that, ‘figure’ is an under-statement, and that ‘dominate’ wouldn’t be an unfair description).
This year we seem to have a bevy of interlopers though;
Kite Wood – Geoffrey Freer
Mourayan – Ballyroan
Age of Aquarius – Gp du Paris
Changingoftheguard – Ebor
The evidence base is much smaller for all these races.
Galient took in the Freer before finishing last to Sixties Icon. Let’s Try Again managed 7th to Brian Boru, where as Mr Combustible managed a place when finishing third Milan.
The Ballyroan is a Gp3 and is best represented by Chimes at Midnight who also managed third to Millenary, where as Washington Irving and Rostrpovitch took it in before finishing 6th and 7th.
Aiden O’Brien seems to have been using the Gp du Paris in recent years with Age of Aquarius striving to emulate Scorpion, albeit that Alessandro Volta, Mountain and Bashkirov have all failed to land a blow since 2005 going the same route.
Changingoftheguard becomes the latest Ballydoyle inmate to try and improve on Honolulu and Mikado’s 3rd and 5th having both placed in the Ebor by way of prep, it doesn’t seem to be a fantastical route to explore.
At this stage I’m not necessarily persuaded to simply stick to the latest renewals of the Gordon and Voltigeur and work back from there. In any event, with only Tactic representing the Gordon Stakes, then the pressure is on the Voltigeur to uphold the established order, and I’m more inclined to dip back to the mid-season targets for more substantive clues and then work forward.
The ‘Derby’ is only represented by the two horses; Age of Aquarius and Kite Wood. As market leaders though, they’d be more than entitled to a bit of respect. The Irish event is represented by Mourayan, and for this part of the hypothesis at least, I’ll confine my considerations to this trio.
Fame and Glory and to a lesser extent Golden Sword would seem to be the obvious horses to try and tie the two races together. Fame and Glory features quite prominently in Mourayan’s profile having beaten him in 3 runnings this year.
Ballysax – 1.25L’s into third
Derrinstown – 5L’s into second
Irish Derby – 6L’s into third
The gap is widening with each run, but I’m much more inclined to attribute this to Fame and Glory’s development rather than any regression in Mourayan. I’m not sure a seriously regressive horse could really come third in an Irish Derby anyway (they can come fourth mind you!!! – but then that was distant fourth with Mourayan beating Masterofthehorse 10L’s in his own right).
If we use Fame and Glory as the benchmark, then Mourayan has got nearer to him at the Curragh than the other two did at Epsom. If we take the most recent evidence of the Irish Derby then he was beaten by Fame and Glory 6L’s and Golden Sword 1L. At Epsom Age Aquarius was beaten by the same couple 7L’s and 6.5L, where as Kite Wood was 11.5L’s and 11L’s back. This would surprisingly perhaps, give Mourayan a theoretical advantage through Fame and Glory of;
1.0 Age of Aquarius
5.5 Kite Wood
And through Golden Sword of;
5.5 Age of Aquarius
10 Kite Wood
It’s tempting to deduce from this that Golden Sword hasn’t run his race at the Curragh (a bit harsh on a horse that finished second!!! And more inclined to suggest that Fame and Glory improved for having the race run to suit). Golden Sword subsequently under-performed NTO in the King George, but this could owe something to the fact the Curragh left a mark. The Irish Derby was run at a much more punishing pace than the English equivilant and one would have thought that this was probably responsible for the runners being more strung out (Masterofthehorse finished 4th some 16L’s back). So before climbing aboard Mourayan we’d probably need to be satisfied that like the Derby 3rd and 4th (Golden Sword and Masterofthehorse) the Curragh hasn’t necessarily bottomed him a bit, but more of that later.
The first question to answer I suppose is just what have Age of Aquarius and Kite Wood done subsequently to justify support over Mourayan, as he should be right alongside them on the evidence of the mile and a half classics, and do their achievements stand up?. Well I suppose you might accord the Grand Prix du Paris a quasi-classic status now that the Prix Jockey Club has been dropped to 10.5F’s and Age of Aquarius has chased home Cavalryman. The strength of the form isn’t really known. Only third placed ‘Mastery’ has run since and he was an extending 4.5L’s adrift off the yet to be confirmed ‘Monitor Closely’ in the much vaunted Voltigeur, which would give the Peter Chapple-Hyham horse a 2.5L verdict over Age of Aquarius (FWIW). It’s still the nearest that any runner has come to winning a Gp1 though and the stable will always merit respect.
The case for Kite Wood is perhaps a little bit more puzzling. One gets the impression that the racing press have been desperate to announce the resurgence of Godolphin, but a few minor group races and an upturn in general form is a long way from returning them to the halcyon days of 2005. I expect them to be the subject of a degree of hype though in the next few weeks with the media over-stating the signs of a recovery in their fortunes, which hopefully might help keep the price low.
Kite Wood won the Gp3 Bahrain Trophy and handed out a 2.5L hammering of Tactic in the process!!! wow. The latter is a 40/1 outsider who subsequently went on to run 4L’s off Harbinger in the ‘Gordon Stakes’ the former is the 5/2 favourite. On such small margins things hang. Tactic would be on similar level to Montaff and Urban Poet on their Goodwood running, which wouldn’t necessarily make Kite Woods Newmarket win that outstanding, and was broadly in the territory you’d expect it to be based on their Derby running. Harbinger had never run a fast time and I always felt he’d be vulnerable when stretched, although he went so badly askew in the Voltigeur that one has to look elsewhere for reasons. In any event, the Bahrain Trophy was pretty run of the mill fare and Kite Woods chances are seemingly more wrapped up in a facile Geoffrey Freer. Now in fairness he did run a Group 1 time with me when winning this (albeit without an extra 6Ibs on his back which he’d be expected to shoulder at Donny). Once this additional ballast is added and adjusted to 14F’s his rating drops to 99.14 (Group 2), which is after all what the Geoffrey Freer is, and so far as we can establish, where the horse probably is too. He’s won Gp 2s and 3’s but never finished in the top half of a Gp1.
At Newbury he was pretty well left to his own devices, and came home 3.5L’s ahead of Halicarnassus. It’s a few year though since Mick Channon’s redoubtable ‘wonder of the world’ has been a threat. Two handicaps wins at Nad Al Sheba and Ripon wouldn’t be the best endorsement for his last 29 attempts, and his last win of significance was 2 years ago. Even at his prime Halicarnassus was able to land a couple of Gp3’s, and wasn’t really entitled to win the Gp2 Freer therefore. That he came second, and got within 3.5L’s of Kite Wood is more likely to worry me a bit than send me out to snaffle the 5/2. Quite apart from holding a direct verdict over the Godolphin runner, of the two market leaders, I find the claims Age of Aquarius through the Longchamp run more persuasive than those of the Geoffrey Freer.
The third horse in this triumphrate of Derby runners is Mourayan of course, and at face value his 1.25 defeat in a Gp3 after the Curragh wouldn’t read as well as Kite Woods win in a Gp2. There might be a more appropriate way of looking at this though?, and that involves abandoning the races assignation for the time being, and looking at the respective winners and runners up. What would you regard as the better performance? A 3.5L defeat of Halicarnassus or finishing 1.25L’s away from Profound Beauty? Would Profound Beauty be expected to beat Halicarnassus by more than 4.75L’s? Both are older horses, and one of them can only boast a Ripon handicap win from 11 starts this term. The other finished no more than 2.5L’s away in last year’s Gp1 Melbourne Gold Cup and shows all the signs so far of having retained her enthusiasm to try and go a little bit better in November. Profound Beauty has won all 3 of her assignments at Gp3 and listed class in 2009 so would hardly be regarded as on the downgrade. The only worry was that Mourayan got first run on Profound Beauty at Leopardstown and went to the lead a furlong from home, before being gathered in with 150yds to go. Having said that, he only lost by 1.25L’s so wouldn’t necessarily have emptied, and had the Gp3 winner, (Shreyas) 5L’s back in third. It’s probably more sensible to attribute this result to the ability of Profound Beauty. It might also provide some encouragement that despite being a beaten favourite, Mourayan didn’t do a Golden Sword or Masterofthehorse after the exertions of the Curragh at the hands of Fame and Glory. Whether he’ll stay the extra 2F’s at Town Moor is an issue, as you don’t normally like to back horses in staying races that get pegged back having hit the front 1 furlong out, but then a fast run Curragh at a mile and a half will ride more like 13F’s at Doncaster already, and his third to Fame & Glory wouldn’t suggest he was empty. Indeed Mourayan’s form ties in very closely with Fame and Glory’s. There’s a silly logic we often hear in racing that runs something along the lines of “if it wasn’t for XXXX then YYYY would be” etc.
It almost starts with Sea The Stars;
“If it wasn’t for Sea The Stars then Fame and Glory would be a dual Derby winner”.
If you follow this ‘achievement through convenient omission’ down the food chain then Mourayan can invoke the same disingenuous logic.
“If it wasn’t for Fame and Glory then Mourayan would be a Derrinstown winner and a Ballysax and Irish Derby runner up”.
It can sometimes help us frame a sense of perspective, but it does of course ignore something quite critical (the presence of the XXXX horse!!!) which does render the logic sort of irrelevant bordering on redundant. It’s from the same stable as “if it were trained by anyone else, (usually meaning AOB) it would be double the price” – which again overlooks the fact it isn’t trained by anyone else!!!
The only other two left to give me cause for concern are Changingofthegurad and Monitor Closely. The latter needs to be supplemented but looks like being so according to the exchanges. He tries to complete the unlikely journey of Guineas to Leger passed up by Sea The Stars and it certainly looks like one of the more enterprising raids. The record of Voltigeur winners suggests that he should attempt it, though one has to wonder how many supplemented horses actually win English Classics? (Kris Kin?) or how many Guineas runners end up winning Legers in the same year?.
This one does look unusual though, as it’s not so much the ability that was questioned, and therefore it’s not necessarily a case of something that wasn’t considered good enough suddenly announcing that it might be, and thus an after-thought in the absence of anything else, but more a question of trip. In both the Hampton Court and City of York he was noted as “running on same pace” when finishing with merit rather than distinction at 10F’s. Perhaps the clue was there that a step up was needed (I spotted it, but inexplicably decided not to take the 28/1 – biggest howler of the year so far). The step up in trip duly worked the oracle, and with Jimmy Fortune seemingly kidding the field in the Voltigeur he was able to use his tactical speed at the business-end and pretty well stick a good (and increasing ) margin of 4L’s and 5.75L’s on Mastery and Father Time. It seems to have been enough to send Henry Cecil into re-think mode anyway. Bollin Eric and Mutafaweq came 3rd and 4th in a Voltigeur, but the likes of Lucarno, Rule of Law, Brian Boru and Milan suggest a first two is where you need to be, and that’s before you take the likes of non-participants such as Youmzain into account.
Monitor Closely probably has been running at the wrong trip but that’s not to say that 14F’s is the optimum one either. The presence of Ballydoyle pacemakers isn’t going to help his cause, and one suspects that he won’t be allowed to run the race the way he did the Voltigeur. It’s difficult to suggest that he completely stole a race, but you can’t help wondering how much of it was down to Jimmy Fortune. He’s put up a consistent set of figures with me all season which suggests he’s just short of Gp1, but he still seems to be improving, albeit gradually now.
Now that serves as a useful prompt to take a look at my own ratings I’m afraid;
Levelled off at 9.0
Sariska = 104.41 on +1.46 @ 12F (Oaks)
Mourayan = 104.29 on +1.00 @ 12F (Irish Derby)
Mourayan = 103.56~ on +1.93 @ 12F (Ballyroan)
Age of Aquarius = 99.65~ on +3.89 @ 12F (Gp du Paris)
Kite Wood = 99.14 on +1.15 @ 13.5F (Geoffrey Freer)
Changingoftheguard = 98.55 on +2.51 (could be +4.97 headwind) @ 14F (Ebor)
Mourayan = 98.00 (alternative figure to 103.56)
Mastery = 97.65~ on +3.89 @ 12F (Gp du Paris)
Mourayan = 97.29 on +0.25 @ 10F (Ballysax)
Monitor Closely = 96.29 on +3.04 @10F (Hampton Ct)
Mourayan = 95.46 on +2.64 @ 10F (Derrinstown)
Monitor Closely = 95.01 on +1.82 @ 8F (2000 Gns)
Monitor Closely = 93.49 on -0.56 (likely to be nearer G/F due to headwind) @ 10F Nmk
Monitor Closely = 92.82 on +3.62 @ 12F (Voltigeur)
Chaningingoftheguard = 92.41 on +7.36 @ 13F (Down Royal)
Kite Wood = 92.29 on +2.08 @ 13F (Bahrain Trophy)
Father Time = 92.28 on +4.93 @12F (Edward VII)
Monitor Closely = 92.11 on +1.07 @ 10.5F (Dante)
Kite Wood = 92.08 on +1.07 @ 10.5F (Dante)
Father Time = 91.10 on +0.27 @ 10F (Nmk Listed)
Mastery = 88.82 on +3.62 @ 12F (Voltigeur)
Changingoftheguard = 87.83 on +3.42 @10F (Navan Mdn)
Father Time = 87.07 on +3.62 @ 12F (Voltigeur)
Manifest = 86.82 on -0.12 @12F (Nmk Mdn)
Age of Aquarius = 84.48 on +2.39 @12F (Derby)
Kite Wood = 79.73 on +2.39 @12F (Derby
Mastery = 78.25 on +4.93 @ 16F (Queens Vase)
Manifest = 66.14 on +3.25 @12F (Nmk Mdn)
I’ve given up trying to rate the Lingfield Trial won by Age of Aquarius as I’m convinced the race distance was longer than advertised. In a similar vein I’m equally convinced that the race distance at Down Royal won by Changingoftheguard was significantly shorter than advertised, although I’m more confident I can get a handle on that one. The Grand Prix Du Paris carries a warning too, as there aren’t enough standard times (thanks to the RP mysteriously downgrading their coverage) for me to be happy to work off. It would be dangerous to rely on the Derby for an indication of AoA too, as that race wasn’t run at a true pace, and perhaps AoA being out-sprinted and disappointing slightly, might need to be seen in the context of the Leger? It’s quite possible that stayers like AoA or Kite Wood were even more inconvenienced by the race than some of those higher profile casualties nearer the front? Mourayan’s second rating in the Ballyroan is slightly questionable due to the spread of adjusted times. What this means is that setting variance is more problematic than normal and a bit hit and miss, with a higher margin for error. I could use a more punitive method to bring him out at 98.00 (the Rail Link method) but then he’d be the only horse in the sample who would have been subjected to this more searching examination, which is a bit unfair.
Both the Derby and Voltigeur look slow and you can only really use finishing positions as an indication of class I suppose. I don’t hold a figure for the Gp2 ‘City of York’ but would be slightly concerned that despite making a steady advance on the high 90’s from a base of 92 at the start of the season, Monitor Closely has been making small incremental increases and has peppered the mid 90’s and pushed his performance boundary out to 96 now. I’m guessing he’s capable of 97.5 maximum, which wouldn’t normally be enough. His chance improves with a slow pace, but you’d have to think that Aiden O’Brien will kybosh that.
Father Time doesn’t have the figures to suggest he can win a hard run race in a fast time at this trip, and neither does Manifest. Mastery’s chance seemingly lies with me being right about a dubious Gp Du Paris figure, but the Vase rarely produces anything other than plodders and I can’t see him beating Kite Wood anyway, nor do I have any good reason to think he’ll reverse Voltigeur form, which I’m still not convinced is the usual advert for this race that it normally is.
Changingoftheguard, like Honolulu before him, represents the fly in the ointment, and I can actually see him running on quite strongly. I thought I had a decent handle on him through this misleading run at Down Royal, but have to concede that all things being equal he should probably be judged as an Ebor winner. My feeling is that he’s going to find one too good, but will make the frame.
Last year Conduit was a trends buster. He didn’t run in a Derby and was returned 8/1 fifth choice making him the biggest winner of the last 10 years. Favourites have won 6 of the last 10 renewals, and 8 of the last 10 have gone to one of the front two in the market. I’d actually expect AoA to displace Kite Wood during the run up to the race, but that’s a hunch as much as anything. This has all the classic hallmarks of another ‘over-thought out’ disaster really, when the blindingly obvious should have been pursued.
At this stage though, I’m siding with the idea of value about what is probably an Oxxy-mourayan!!! Even the 3/1 to place has to be better than either AoA or Kite Wood at the same to win. The trends killer of course is the lack of a win this season, although his;
3, 2, 3, 2 is close enough to Bollin Eric’s 3, 2, 2, 3, 3 but it wouldn’t be a percentage call admittedly, just an indication that the task is tough rather than unprecedented. I’ve tried to erase Fame and Glory from my thinking and assess Mourayan thus, but I know that’s wrong!!! Then I hit on another idea.
Since 1986, 52% of the winners names began with either the letter ‘S’ or ‘M’!!! There’s no ‘S’s in the field this year and Mourayan looks to be the pick of the ‘M’s, and in any event with a strike rate of 28% they are the preferred choice. Changingoftheguard and Age of Aquarius to follow him home
Last edited:
Hi Warbler, I agree with you on Mourayan. I am waiting for monitor closely to be supplemented so his price will retract.
By the way, Fame and Glory was carrying a 5lb penalty in the ballysax and a 3lb penalty in the derrinstown so Mourayan doesn't have a regressive profile.
By the way, Fame and Glory was carrying a 5lb penalty in the ballysax and a 3lb penalty in the derrinstown so Mourayan doesn't have a regressive profile.
I'm guessing Monitor Closely will come in a couple of points and this wouldn't be enough to see a drift on Mourayan. It looks to me as if MC is in the book anyway, and Mourayan's price is more likely to go other way if Fame and Glory runs a big race against Sea The Stars. Once punters latch on to how much Mourayan's form ties in with F&G's then they might start to realise they've probably got a decent proposition on their hands that's currently being allowed to trade at 12's. There's always the chance of course that some of the potential horses that will need supplementing, won't be. Although I don't buy it, there's an additional suggestion in some quarters that Changingoftheguard might not line up (who is one I wouldn't mind having out the way).
The othert thing that might come into play is the weather of course. It looks unsettled for most of this week going into next, and after a few days of racing the ground is bound to chop up a bit meaning that any extra rain is going to get in. Alright Doncaster drains well, but I don't see it being much quicker than Good, and with any luck a bit of G/S could creep into the equation. I'm guessing that Mourayan could easily be 6/1 on the day.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
He stands out a bit on current prices to be sure. The Godolphin nag is unbelievably bad value.
Hear, hear.
Manifest is the unknown quantity (I've no idea how good he might be). He has an excellent stamina profile, but would need to be supplemented.
Last edited:
Manifest presumbly an NR then? The fact that the same connections considered so carefully running him can't exactly be a vote of confidence in Father Time. Age of Aquarius is likely to go of Fav I'd have thought, although Changingoftheguard is the one I'm increasingly worried about
Dear Aidan and Michael - it is not too late to supplement F & G and Sariska - cos unless it rains a lot is there any point in a trip to Paris ?:lol:
No it does not bode well for Father Time save the fact that Cecil does not run horses without a chance in classics .
I can see a shock result . I am not all that taken with most of them !
STS - so could have cantered to a Triple Crown.
No it does not bode well for Father Time save the fact that Cecil does not run horses without a chance in classics .
I can see a shock result . I am not all that taken with most of them !
STS - so could have cantered to a Triple Crown.