That would suit Monitor Closely who will be supplemented today at a cost of £45,000, although he is unlikely to stay as well as others in this.
The Leger
- Thread starter Guest_
- Start date
That would suit Monitor Closely who will be supplemented today at a cost of £45,000, although he is unlikely to stay as well as others in this.
I
ItalianStallion
Guest
Kite Wood doesn't want anything quicker than good Gal
)I can see Age of Aquarius going off around 13/8 for this.
I do believe in the theory of conditioning for distance, and this (as well as the fact I don't rate their form) rules out Kite Wood and Changingoftheguard. I would be shocked if Father Time is good enough, and that Mourayan may not run with if the ground is quick.
I genuinely think 11/4 for Age of Aquarius is one of the bets of the season.
Is there much confidence at Ballydoyle behind him?
I do believe in the theory of conditioning for distance, and this (as well as the fact I don't rate their form) rules out Kite Wood and Changingoftheguard. I would be shocked if Father Time is good enough, and that Mourayan may not run with if the ground is quick.
I genuinely think 11/4 for Age of Aquarius is one of the bets of the season.
Is there much confidence at Ballydoyle behind him?
Last edited:
I
ItalianStallion
Guest
Good luck with AOA Gal, theres a few people who've worked hard on investigating this race and I expect a massive price drop when they get on. I can confrim its not AOA, under strict orders to not let the cat out the bag.
Not heard anything about the horse but conditions are sure to suit. It will be fascinating who rides him as Murtagh is going to be at The Curragh.
Both AOA and Changing cut with Ladbrokes. O'Brien said he was very pleased with AOA a couple of days ago. Said he travels as well as anything he's got... He should finish in the front two I reckon.
If you listened to his propaganda then you could be forgiven for thinking that Fallon was angling for the ride
chroniclandlord
Senior Jockey
I've fancied Age of Aquarius for the St Leger since Lingfield in May and I've seen nothing to make me change my mind.
Well they had been the biggest price in the village about the front 3 for all of last week so they're probably just balancing the book a bit I'd have thought. They've gone shorter on the Ballydoyle outsiders now. Corals by contrast were short on just about the whole field. Ladbrokes were betting something 6-8% lower than Corals last week. I wouldn't read that much into it thus
It may be more than balancing books... remember Ladbrokes have the ear of Ballydoyle.
It's a bit of an urban myth, but even if you want to believe that Coolmore tell Mike Dillon everything and give everyone else a bum steer and that no other firm has a link to the yard, they've still had all the time since Mid July to take an opinion on Age of Aquarius and have conspiciously priced up as big or bigger than any of their rivals until today. Indeed they've done the same with Changingoftheguard too. They were the only firm on oddschecker for weeks who had the two Ballydoyle hopes plus Kite Wood in bold type
Last edited:
You're guessing.
What history has taught us is that you need a bit of tactical speed and the ability to see it out to settle a St Leger, especially with the long straight at Doncaster. AoA looks decidely one paced to me. He might be able to see it out, but will he have the speed to open up a gap? I'm sure I'm right in saying that he's still to yet over-take a horse this season. You could argue that Montaff came alongside him at Lingfield and he asserted, but then if you want to use Montaff as a pointer, feel free.
I think Kite Wood probably fits a similar profile, but even he has hinted at a better tactical speed than AoA, given that there was little between them at Epsom. (I reckon AoA was slightly faster in the straight) but then Smullen keeps him up to his work where as Kite Wood is noticably eased. AoA was overtaken by 5 horses, and Kite Wood 6. Most Leger winners who ran in the Derby (Brian Boru apart) showed the ability to go past horses. Rule of Law accounted for 10 of them, and Sixties Icon 5, even Lucarno maintained his place having shifted 3 and been overtaken by the same number.
Kite Woods been racing prominently of late and gone from the front in his last two runs, much the same way as AoA ran in second in the Derby (ignoring the pacemaker) and took the lead in Gp Du Paris. These two will look to take each other on a bit I'd have thought and stretch them. Anything that has the stamina to lay up with them, and possesses a bit of tactical speed should hold an edge when they strike for home.
What history has taught us is that you need a bit of tactical speed and the ability to see it out to settle a St Leger, especially with the long straight at Doncaster. AoA looks decidely one paced to me. He might be able to see it out, but will he have the speed to open up a gap? I'm sure I'm right in saying that he's still to yet over-take a horse this season. You could argue that Montaff came alongside him at Lingfield and he asserted, but then if you want to use Montaff as a pointer, feel free.
I think Kite Wood probably fits a similar profile, but even he has hinted at a better tactical speed than AoA, given that there was little between them at Epsom. (I reckon AoA was slightly faster in the straight) but then Smullen keeps him up to his work where as Kite Wood is noticably eased. AoA was overtaken by 5 horses, and Kite Wood 6. Most Leger winners who ran in the Derby (Brian Boru apart) showed the ability to go past horses. Rule of Law accounted for 10 of them, and Sixties Icon 5, even Lucarno maintained his place having shifted 3 and been overtaken by the same number.
Kite Woods been racing prominently of late and gone from the front in his last two runs, much the same way as AoA ran in second in the Derby (ignoring the pacemaker) and took the lead in Gp Du Paris. These two will look to take each other on a bit I'd have thought and stretch them. Anything that has the stamina to lay up with them, and possesses a bit of tactical speed should hold an edge when they strike for home.
Warbler,
I wouldn't say I agree or disagree (for now) with your last post, but I think it's nearly irrelevant as I don't think there's anything good enough with a 'kick' as you described in this field. I agree, if there were a Lucarno or Sixties Icon in the field, i think they'd win, but there's nothing at that standard going to be lining up Saturday.
I wouldn't say I agree or disagree (for now) with your last post, but I think it's nearly irrelevant as I don't think there's anything good enough with a 'kick' as you described in this field. I agree, if there were a Lucarno or Sixties Icon in the field, i think they'd win, but there's nothing at that standard going to be lining up Saturday.
Age Of Aquarius's Derby run can be forgotten - the horse was rushed into the race (as his performance at Lingfield suggested as did his appearance in the pre parade) and was not right afterwards (hence missing the Irish Derby) but ran a pleasing race in Longchamp. Should relish the ground and distance on Saturday.
No more than you!
Not really. I'm dealing in facts (the price that Ladbrokes have had AoA at since mid July). You're guessing that today's cut is due to pleasing work.
As regards horses with tactical speed, I think there's three in the race now. If you look for the evidence, it's there, although the issue of stamina comes into play with 1 and half of them.
Narcotic Nora
Apprentice
O'Brien is quoted in today's Irish Times as saying that while the plan is for Yeats to go to the Curragh, should the ground there remain heavy and he miss out, one of the 3YOs may be kept back for the Irish race.
It might well mean that... The fact is that they have been cut and the fact is that the yard has expressed itself as very pleased with its main two. Bookmakers tend to cut prices for two main reasons: 1) weight of money; and 2) reports of particularly good work. With confidence ebbing for Kite Wood (due to the going) it's not really surprising that money is being seen for the next two in the market.