The Long Shot Thread

I've only bet in one race today, the Clipper Logistics. The main bet is El Hayem but there are two qualifiers for the thread who carry savers.

Baraweez 25/1 - [second-top rated overall on back form] was one of a 1-2-3 for Ellison at Galway last time. He’s been a bit in and out but is 11lbs lower than last spring and has to be backed.

Bravery 22/1 - [top rated on this season's form] I’m curious why Tudhope rides Firmament rather than Bravery. Firmament is entitled to run well but would really need to improve a bit to win whereas Bravery’s Lincoln form gives him a very big shout. It was a stronger-in-depth race than this and he gets to race off 1lb lower following a subsequently disappointing season. However, he is a risk worth taking here. Oh This Is Us was a neck second to him at Doncaster but Bravery is 4lbs better off here.
 
Just nosing through the thread for first time in a while.

Looks like you're in the sweet-spot at the moment, DO - nice one.
 
Cheers, GH.

As I said at the outset, the nature of the approach is that it's long odds-on that the horses won't win and obviously losing runs can be very long indeed. But finding big priced winners has motivated me since I was a teenager!
 
Desert Orchid said:
Cheers, GH.

As I said at the outset, the nature of the approach is that it's long odds-on that the horses won't win and obviously losing runs can be very long indeed. But finding big priced winners has motivated me since I was a teenager!
Click to expand...

A man after my own heart.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've only bet in one race today, the Clipper Logistics. The main bet is El Hayem but there are two qualifiers for the thread who carry savers.

Baraweez 25/1 - [second-top rated overall on back form] was one of a 1-2-3 for Ellison at Galway last time. He’s been a bit in and out but is 11lbs lower than last spring and has to be backed.

Bravery 22/1 - [top rated on this season's form] I’m curious why Tudhope rides Firmament rather than Bravery. Firmament is entitled to run well but would really need to improve a bit to win whereas Bravery’s Lincoln form gives him a very big shout. It was a stronger-in-depth race than this and he gets to race off 1lb lower following a subsequently disappointing season. However, he is a risk worth taking here. Oh This Is Us was a neck second to him at Doncaster but Bravery is 4lbs better off here.
Click to expand...

Mixed feelings about that. El Hayem can be marked up a fair bit given the way he was ridden. I really expected Frankie to bounce him out and get him into a good position then try to dictate his own pace.

Baraweez lost three lengths for no good reason approaching the turn and Bravery simply didn't look like he was there to win. It looked for all the world that he was sizing them all up for something else. The Cambridgeshire, maybe?
 
4.50 York - two qualifiers...

Balestra 25/1 - might be the one although the trainer said he wanted fast ground for him. It’s hard to know what his form amounts to exactly and I’ve maybe taken an over-positive view of it but I'm willing to pay to find out. It looks to me like the commercial people are pegging the form back because of race standardisation and they may well be right. I'm going to roll with my gut and take the form at what I feel is face value, plus as the most lightly-raced runner he's arguably entitled to progress the most.

Wahash 25/1 - carries sickness insurance as I've backed him in his two runs since his fine second to Juanito Chico in a fast race at the Derby meeting. He's disappointed in those races but maybe wasn't over those exertions. Juanito Chico is running well off 11lbs higher so Wahash could be dangerous off just 4lbs higher.
 
Last edited:
Desert Orchid said:
4.50 York - two qualifiers...

Balestra 25/1 - might be the one although the trainer said he wanted fast ground for him. It’s hard to know what his form amounts to exactly and I’ve maybe taken an over-positive view of it but I'm willing to pay to find out. It looks to me like the commercial people are pegging the form back because of race standardisation and they may well be right. I'm going to roll with my gut and take the form at what I feel is face value, plus as the most lightly-raced runner he's arguably entitled to progress the most.

Wahash 25/1 - carries sickness insurance as I've backed him in his two runs since his fine second to Juanito Chico in a fast race at the Derby meeting. He's disappointed in those races but maybe wasn't over those exertions. Juanito Chico is running well off 11lbs higher so Wahash could be dangerous off just 4lbs higher.
Click to expand...

Both very weak. Looks like I've dunmadoh.

Not to worry. There are four or five 20/1+ shots tomorrow I like!
 
York 2.25 - Sofia's Rock 25/1 - I’m satisfied that Sofia’s Rock is a serious contender and has probably been aimed at this since running a big race at the July Meeting.

York 3.35 - Maleficent Queen 50/1 (6 places) - a must-bet at 50/1. First time cheekpieces might bring about a revival in her form. She was in the form of her life in the spring at this kind of trip but was dropped back through the summer other than when pulling up in the Northumberland Plate (presumably something went amiss) so it’s interesting that she pops up again here in the first-time headgear.

York 4.40 - Snoano 28/1 - I’m happy to overlook Snoano’s last two runs. He’ll have needed time to get over defying trouble in running to win at Ascot.

Gwd 2.45 - Suzi's Connoisseur 20/1 - I have some sickness insurance on Suzi’s Connoisseur despite his wide draw as he showed a glimmer of his old ability last time and is thrown in on his very best form.
 
I'd already singled out Sofia's Rock as a bet today so happy you have picked out too. Have thrown e.w. double on with MQ after your write up.
 
Desert Orchid said:
York 2.25 - Sofia's Rock 25/1 - I’m satisfied that Sofia’s Rock is a serious contender and has probably been aimed at this since running a big race at the July Meeting.

York 3.35 - Maleficent Queen 50/1 (6 places) - a must-bet at 50/1. First time cheekpieces might bring about a revival in her form. She was in the form of her life in the spring at this kind of trip but was dropped back through the summer other than when pulling up in the Northumberland Plate (presumably something went amiss) so it’s interesting that she pops up again here in the first-time headgear.

York 4.40 - Snoano 28/1 - I’m happy to overlook Snoano’s last two runs. He’ll have needed time to get over defying trouble in running to win at Ascot.

Gwd 2.45 - Suzi's Connoisseur 20/1 - I have some sickness insurance on Suzi’s Connoisseur despite his wide draw as he showed a glimmer of his old ability last time and is thrown in on his very best form.
Click to expand...
I did Snoano the last day so its interesting you fancy it. I've followed you. I'll be happy with a place. Good luck.
 
Last edited:
Desert Orchid said:
York 2.25 - Sofia's Rock 25/1 - I’m satisfied that Sofia’s Rock is a serious contender and has probably been aimed at this since running a big race at the July Meeting.
Click to expand...

Really disappointed that Sofia's Rock wasn't ever asked a question after they turned for home. Clearly this wasn't meant to be the day. It's all the more annoying that I had it 4lbs clear of my second-top rated Secret Advisor :(
 
Desert Orchid said:
York 2.25 - Sofia's Rock 25/1 - I’m satisfied that Sofia’s Rock is a serious contender and has probably been aimed at this since running a big race at the July Meeting.

York 3.35 - Maleficent Queen 50/1 (6 places) - a must-bet at 50/1. First time cheekpieces might bring about a revival in her form. She was in the form of her life in the spring at this kind of trip but was dropped back through the summer other than when pulling up in the Northumberland Plate (presumably something went amiss) so it’s interesting that she pops up again here in the first-time headgear.

York 4.40 - Snoano 28/1 - I’m happy to overlook Snoano’s last two runs. He’ll have needed time to get over defying trouble in running to win at Ascot.

Gwd 2.45 - Suzi's Connoisseur 20/1 - I have some sickness insurance on Suzi’s Connoisseur despite his wide draw as he showed a glimmer of his old ability last time and is thrown in on his very best form.
Click to expand...

Not one of them off an inch. Pretty sickening to watch.
 
Bravery 40/1 for the Cambridgeshire.worth a bet I think on what you've said.
Another one I'm interested in is Bossy guest 40/1.
 
Outsider said:
Bravery 40/1 for the Cambridgeshire.worth a bet I think on what you've said.
Another one I'm interested in is Bossy guest 40/1.
Click to expand...

A bit early for me just yet but Bravery is certainly on my mind and Bossy Guest is definitely extremely well handicapped these days on his best form.
 
Just one 'qualifier' today:

Sandown 3.35 - Master Carpenter 25/1 (4 places available with some bookies)

Master Carpenter’s best form would be good enough for this and the jockey has four winners and a second from six rides for the trainer this season so I feel obliged to put him us as the main bet and he’s a massive price relative to his chances on his best form. I’ll probably also take him in an each-way double with the same connections’ Sir Roderic at Chester, just in case they’re planning a wee coup (or should that be coo?)
 
Desert Orchid said:
Just one 'qualifier' today:

Sandown 3.35 - Master Carpenter 25/1 (4 places available with some bookies)

Master Carpenter’s best form would be good enough for this and the jockey has four winners and a second from six rides for the trainer this season so I feel obliged to put him us as the main bet and he’s a massive price relative to his chances on his best form. I’ll probably also take him in an each-way double with the same connections’ Sir Roderic at Chester, just in case they’re planning a wee coup (or should that be coo?)
Click to expand...

Just watched the race. Either the horse had a problem during the race or the jockey is totally inept.
 
Depressing stuff lately.

Undaunted, I have three qualifiers for today but I've halved all my stakes today due to the ground.

Ascot 2.45 Heaven's Guest 25/1 and Dark Emerald 50/1 (5 places with some bookies)

Heaven's Guest now owes me, I reckon, and he’s probably simply in terminal decline but he keeps turning up in these valuable handicaps, which makes me think they still have some faith in him, otherwise he’d be running in Class 3s at Thirsk and Ripon. He is simply savagely well handicapped on his best form.

Dark Emerald doesn’t tend to carry my money but he too is plummeting down the ratings. He went up to 111 this time last year for running a big race in the Hungerford having been on 112 at the start of the previous season. He has only shown the odd glimpse of form this season but has come down a stone. He’ll probably hit form at some point.


Ascot 3.55 - Bear Valley 33/1

I backed Bear Valley last week in a £40k race at Beverley and was shocked at the ride he got. For most of the race I thought I was on a winner. He was beautifully placed in the Piggott seat travelling noticeably powerfully but as soon as they straightened up the jockey made no attempt to ask him to get competitive. A token flail of the whip once they had all gone away from him was totally unconvincing. I can now only assume that was his prep for this £100k race. I’m not put off by his carrying the owner’s second colours (Londinium has the first).
 
Third place for Heaven's Guest. I didn't back it each-way (I did dark Emerald) as I thought he might either win a mile or blow out again. He's maybe just coming back in time for the £180k handicap over C&D next month.
 
Bear Valley not off an inch once again. Gave up on a good early position then the old exaggerated elbow action from the jockey while pulling him back in the straight.

Wonder what the target is.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Bear Valley not off an inch once again. Gave up on a good early position then the old exaggerated elbow action from the jockey while pulling him back in the straight.

Wonder what the target is.
Click to expand...

Been trying to suss that myself DO having fallen into the same trap.

I'm going to chance one to tomorrow and let me say this now, it'll be minimum stakes as far as long shots go.

4.15 Catterick - Barkston Ash 25s

To put it simply he's off a basement mark and as a result drops into class 6 for the first time in a long time. Not drawn out of it and should be straight for a couple of runs, admittedly where he showed little.

If he retains any sort of ability he can hit the frame. He could very well bomb again if which case I think they'll be running out of options.

Good luck.
 
Back
Top