The Long Shot Thread

I had the right idea going for an outsider but picked the wrong horse.
 
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Backing outsiders at Uttoxeter today so had The Land Agent at 80/1. Absolutely no chance but when trainers put inexperienced horses up against experienced ones, I always think they might know something I don't. I think I'll know my fate quite quickly! [I think what the trainer knew was that he would pick up a few hundred quid for finishing 4th!!]. Wish I was at Uttoxeter today; the racing has been quite interesting...
 
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Stewards' Cup - this is actually my main bet in the race.

Perfect Pasture 50/1 (7 places with SkyBet) - I think he’s on the up and the booking of Atzeni is the real eyecatcher in the race. He’s a terrific price for one with his ratings profile and his middle draw looks ideal.

Others in the race who 'qualify' for the thread are Aeolus (28/1) and Eastern Impact (25/1).
 
Looking at this 4.10 at Yarmouth tomorrow. It's a poor race but there's one at a big price I do sort of fancy.

Cool Echo 33/1

This filly has various bits of form in low grade races and this is her 2nd run back from a break. She has edged down the handicap and runs off 59 here. She will have needed the comeback run and wasn't beaten all that far. Even when looking at the maiden runs there was some promise. For example there was a couple of runs behind Sitar of James Fanshawe's at Nottingham and Leicester, each time finishing 2.3 or 3l behind. Sitar is running off 72 next time out.

I expect Shelneverwalkalone to set a brisk pace up front. Deciding Vote and Lily Ash are others that can help keep this honest.

The slight concern with this filly is that she's proved a bit reluctant at the stalls and tends to miss the break. She's usually held up so it shouldn't be a huge issue unless she completely blows it. I may well get involved in running to take a bigger price should the opportunity arise.

Let's hope for a good run.
 
Cosmelli 140a 33/1 ran an eye-catching race at Newcastle 2 starts ago when 100/1 behind higher power only Beaten 3l with yorkidding behing(won today)now 2lb lower.disappointed last time.
 
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5.05 Windsor - Royal Etiquette 25s

Must have a squeak. Has form. Decent jockey booking. Not badly handicapped.
 
Gt St Wilf two 'qualifiers':

Naadirr - briefly touched 33s and 40s this morning. Naadirr got quite close to The Tin Man last spring after his rating went up to 110. He was also running well in Maydan this spring but was subsequently dumped by Marco Botti. He’s 12lbs lower now than last season and has only had two runs for his new trainer.

Mattmu 28/1 - probably another whose star is on the wane but his owner and trainer are standing by him. This is actually his first ever run in a handicap so they may be accepting his slide for what it’s worth or they’re seeing it as an opportunity to bag a decent prize if he’s no longer capable of mixing it in Group races. Rated 115 at his peak two seasons ago, he’s still lightly raced overall but has dropped more dramatically than the others and he was ‘only’ 20/1 for the G1 Golden Jubilee on his penultimate start when still rated 110. Ayr might be the aim, though, in which case a penalty might be a hindrance.
 
Well done,I thought,like you that the Ayr gold cup might be the aim and so ruled him out.
Again,well done.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Gt St Wilf two 'qualifiers':

Naadirr - briefly touched 33s and 40s this morning. Naadirr got quite close to The Tin Man last spring after his rating went up to 110. He was also running well in Maydan this spring but was subsequently dumped by Marco Botti. He’s 12lbs lower now than last season and has only had two runs for his new trainer.

Mattmu 28/1 - probably another whose star is on the wane but his owner and trainer are standing by him. This is actually his first ever run in a handicap so they may be accepting his slide for what it’s worth or they’re seeing it as an opportunity to bag a decent prize if he’s no longer capable of mixing it in Group races. Rated 115 at his peak two seasons ago, he’s still lightly raced overall but has dropped more dramatically than the others and he was ‘only’ 20/1 for the G1 Golden Jubilee on his penultimate start when still rated 110. Ayr might be the aim, though, in which case a penalty might be a hindrance.
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So well deserved Maurice, well done.
 
Thanks, guys. I spent so much of the race cursing at Naadirr being taken to the near side I almost forgot about the leader on the far side.

Don't be surprised if Naadirr makes a sudden return to form at Ayr at a big price.
 
Two qualifiers at York today. They wouldn't be my main bets in the races; I just think they're 'way too big for their form.

1.55: Gracious John 50/1 - Started the season on 110, suggesting he is not short of class, and is presumably a big price on account of four unpromising runs on turf this spring and summer. However, he won a good turf handicap off 105 in November and gets to race off 2lbs lower here. His female rider today has ridden him just twice before. The first time was in that November win and the last time was when second off 110 in December at Newcastle. He was also only a half-length behind Lancelot Du Lac at levels in a Listed race at Lingfield in February. I thought there was a glimmer of improvement on his current disappointing run last time. I just think his price is totally wrong.

4.15: Oriental Fox 33/1 - was right back to his very best in the Queen Alexandra and I expect the trainer went easy on him afterwards, allowing him to come back to himself in his own time. If this is the aim rather than, say, the Cesarewitch, he must go close but I’m not sure he runs his best races here. Still, 33/1 is too big for his best form.
 
HOOF IT available at 20 on the machine could run really well.

He showed some of his old sparkle last time in the Stewards Cup, beaten under 2 lengths and the h'capper has dropped him 2lbs.....way overpriced IMO
 
The change in ground killed off any chance the high numbers had. That excellent high, side-on shot after a furlong illustrated spectacularly how badly handicapped they were. They must have been eight lengths down at that stage.

Not much chance of them coming up the stands rail in the round-course races, I suppose.
 
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