The Long Shot Thread

3.05 York - Erik the Red 22/1

Should have a bit in his favour tomorrow and with first time headgear off a lowish weight there's a cause for optimism. Ground should be fine and the Kevin Ryan yard will be hoping for a big race win after their issues with EHV.
 
Plenty of longsots with shouts today, especially in the Magnet Cup (inc ETR, Dan).

I mentioned Tumbaga in the race thread. I still like it and it's still 40/1. I think Snoano is also overlooked but he's very weak on the exchange so maybe today isn't the day but it hasn't put me off.

In the Bunbury Cup, if Donncha is targeting the race seriously he's too big at 33/1.
 
The lack of 8 runners is a blow for E/W but 16/1 looks big For Gabrial in the summer mile given the rain that's there and the Gd-Sft conditions on the round course, Has been in good heart this season on ground the last twice that would have been much too lively for him.
 
Erik the Red was far too free. He may have needed that run and should be capable of better at some point this season. Big fields should ensure a price.
 
It was a very unsatisfactory race. There didn't seem to be much pace and nothing really got competitive from the rear. Tumbaga was very disappointing. I stuck with it despite reservations about the jockey and he gave up pretty quickly once headed. Maybe it was too soon after Ascot and maybe not just for him. Snoano was never doing much either and the morning weakness in the market was right after all. The result has an upside-down look to it with lower ratings (on my own figures) getting the better of higher ones. The form will still be good, though, and the well-handicapped disappointments will come good again.

Donncha never got competitive. I'll maybe hold off on him until Atzeni gets the call.
 
Curragh 4.45 Unrequited 33/1 - has run respectfully in all 3 c/d runs off marks of 80 - 84 & 87 - didn't take to hurdles as not fluent - runs today off 74 with a 7lb claimer. Was 5th in Irish Cesarewitch btn 2L by todays opponent Digeanta getting 10lb 2yrs ago - today he is getting 23lb from that horse. If he retains any of that ability? He'll go close.
 
Desert Orchid said:
It was a very unsatisfactory race. There didn't seem to be much pace and nothing really got competitive from the rear. Tumbaga was very disappointing. I stuck with it despite reservations about the jockey and he gave up pretty quickly once headed. Maybe it was too soon after Ascot and maybe not just for him. Snoano was never doing much either and the morning weakness in the market was right after all. The result has an upside-down look to it with lower ratings (on my own figures) getting the better of higher ones. The form will still be good, though, and the well-handicapped disappointments will come good again.

Donncha never got competitive. I'll maybe hold off on him until Atzeni gets the call.
Click to expand...

Do you think Donncha needs a bit of assistance from the handicapper? He ran plenty of big races over a fairly prolonged period and kept edging up the weights. I do think he's a win or two in him from September onwards when the ground has a bit of dig in it.
 
DanB88 said:
I think the ground for ours SC. We've both picked him I think because he's a horse that is looking almost ready to strike.

I will say now that I do have a habit with these handicappers of going for them one run too early and I get the feeling this is one of those times, recently did it with Desert Ace, backed him at Musselburgh and left him the next time. I would keep an eye out for where Dandyleekie turns up next. It could be somewhere like Thirsk or Pontefract and assuming they drop him back into class 5 and find him so,even ground where he can get his toe in I'd rate him a strong bet.
Click to expand...

Just flagging this one up again. Dandyleekie runs in the 3.00 at Ayr tomorrow. The sole bookie to price up has him at 16s so he doesn't qualify yet. It's fair to say though that someone will be 20s at some point before the off. I haven't backed him and I won't as I feel there's too much against him on balance and have a strong fancy in the race. I will keep an eye on the run though because he is of interest.

For anyone interested the case for him is simple. Off 72 back down in class. His sole run over C&D was fair and better form than tomorrow's race. He needs a form revival and conditions are slowly turning back in his favour.

That said there are a couple of concerns. The ground is advertised as good, and going off the forecast rain is unlikely. For the other please see the what are you backing thread.
 
DanB88 said:
Do you think Donncha needs a bit of assistance from the handicapper? He ran plenty of big races over a fairly prolonged period and kept edging up the weights. I do think he's a win or two in him from September onwards when the ground has a bit of dig in it.
Click to expand...

Any assistance the handicapper now gives will reinforce his prospects going forward. I rate him as things stand as handicapped to win a proper Class 2 handicap, possibly a Heritage handicap. I think the trainer will have one serious target in mind but I don't know what it is. If he books Atzeni it suggests serious intent.
 
The bare 8 runners in the 5:00 at Newmarket. This is good if there is a good outsider lurking there.

Anfaass has run two extremely poor races recently, (almost too bad to be true), but he's got previous form with the 95 rated Golden Apollo as a two year old when he was third behind him at Doncaster. Anfaass runs with low mark here of 80 today, with the bottom weight.

Love Dreams and Mazyoun both have clear chances but for me it would be like playing Russian roulette deciding which one of them to back, so I'll take Anfaass with the 8 runners to show up better today, E/W. At around 20/1.
 
Last edited:
Lynn's Memory (Super Sprint) 25/1, 6 places with Skybet.

Can't imagine Joseph O'Brien is sending this one over for a laugh.
 
I'd give a small chance to Foresee in the 5.15 at Ripon. 20s in a place but more 18s freely available.

Has been sliding down the handicap since joining the Carroll yard. Effective on slower ground and I think he can go close in a weak race.

Might be worth hoovering up the odd bits and pieces on the exchanges if you can get places 1/2/3.
 
DanB88 said:
Just flagging this one up again. Dandyleekie runs in the 3.00 at Ayr tomorrow. The sole bookie to price up has him at 16s so he doesn't qualify yet. It's fair to say though that someone will be 20s at some point before the off. I haven't backed him and I won't as I feel there's too much against him on balance and have a strong fancy in the race. I will keep an eye on the run though because he is of interest.

For anyone interested the case for him is simple. Off 72 back down in class. His sole run over C&D was fair and better form than tomorrow's race. He needs a form revival and conditions are slowly turning back in his favour.

That said there are a couple of concerns. The ground is advertised as good, and going off the forecast rain is unlikely. For the other please see the what are you backing thread.
Click to expand...

He's entered at Doncaster next Thursday evening and will very likely get soft ground.
 
Going to take a flyer on this one.

Lingfield 4.20 Good Bond - 28/1

3 runs humping top weight in open age maidens over shorter trips. Has run green each time. The 2nd run is the one that interests me. He was beaten 15l by a pair of 3yo in receipt of 7 and 11lb - these horses are now rated 75 and 79.

Good Bond races off a mark of 50 tonight and it's a much weaker race. There are no 3 year olds sneaking in with their allowance.

Providing we keep the 3 places I think it's a solid ew chance.
 
DanB88 said:
Going to take a flyer on this one.

Lingfield 4.20 Good Bond - 28/1

3 runs humping top weight in open age maidens over shorter trips. Has run green each time. The 2nd run is the one that interests me. He was beaten 15l by a pair of 3yo in receipt of 7 and 11lb - these horses are now rated 75 and 79.

Good Bond races off a mark of 50 tonight and it's a much weaker race. There are no 3 year olds sneaking in with their allowance.

Providing we keep the 3 places I think it's a solid ew chance.
Click to expand...

Fair to say I expected a bit more there. Hopefully the horse isn't hurt, couldn't find anything in the stewards reports.

Will have a bit more time for the racing over the next couple of weeks so I may chuck a few up on this thread. Hopefully can get a winner amongst them.
 
Just a mention to Moonlight Silver in Sandowns 4:10. Could maybe should do better with headgear on.
 
Last edited:
Two for today. Screaming each way double 😆

2.55 Thirsk - Archie Perkins 20/1

I'm looking at putting a line through the last run. The run before he wasn't beaten far over course and distance. Comes into this race on better terms with Mr Wagyu, who admittedly could still be well in after being raised a solitary lb for winning a York nursery.

6.30 York - General Alexander 18/1

Just short of the 20s minimum but you'd like to think 20s will be available at some point.

Lots to like. Good weight, useful apprentice taking 5 off. Trip should suit and the ground should be spot on. A lot more unexposed than some of them and this looks slightly weaker than a couple of the races he ran well in last season. I'll take a chance.
 
DanB88 said:
Two for today. Screaming each way double 😆

2.55 Thirsk - Archie Perkins 20/1

I'm looking at putting a line through the last run. The run before he wasn't beaten far over course and distance. Comes into this race on better terms with Mr Wagyu, who admittedly could still be well in after being raised a solitary lb for winning a York nursery.

6.30 York - General Alexander 18/1

Just short of the 20s minimum but you'd like to think 20s will be available at some point.

Lots to like. Good weight, useful apprentice taking 5 off. Trip should suit and the ground should be spot on. A lot more unexposed than some of them and this looks slightly weaker than a couple of the races he ran well in last season. I'll take a chance.
Click to expand...

Two no shows, must try harder.
 
I like Clear Water in the 2.40 at York. Missed start and met traffic last time, if he starts well and gets a clear run, think he will outrun his 33-1 odds.
 
Back
Top