The Long Shot Thread

O.k I've had a look at the big handicap at Ascot tomorrow and I think there is a strong case for Arcanada 20/1 generally. He's been all over having raced in Meydan and just come back from a fairly disappointing run in a Grp 2 in Velliefendi. However before this on his run at York over a mile he's posted a really big figure and watching the race he's kicked for home plenty early enough and went miles clear as they were passing the furlong pole which makes me think the drop back in trip would suit here. He ran well last year in the Brittania stakes finishing second in his group on soft ground over the 1m only again being nabbed in his group in the dying strides. This would show that he's at least suited by Ascot and is versatile where the ground is concerned and again that a drop back in trip could payoff. I do think Mojito is a very worthy favourite and will go close but judging by there respective runs over the mile at York and through a line with Kings gift they look quite closely matched. Not only this but I think it could be argued that both will be suited by the step back in trip. Another factor here could be the draw taking out a few of the opposition I'm notoriously a bad judge of such things normally but all the pace seems to be high and a few of the other contenders, Flaming Spear,Burnt Sugar,Johnny barnes, Firmanent and Raising sand are all drawn low and are all hold up performers. If by chance the pace horses travel as the the crow flies, straight down the rail then it leaves a lot of hold up performers either having to make there way over or face be going down the middle with no one to really cut out the running.

Arcanda looks worthy of a bet at 20/1 in his own right but based on my draw theory and the theory that he and Mojito are fairly closely matched if you fancied a real long shot you may fancy they'd have the race between themselves down the rail. I've chanced the reverse forecast and took prices with 365 of 89.08 and 97.30 respectively :ninja:

Good luck for the weekend lads.
 
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No quibbles with that, Danny. Arcanada is on my long list for tomorrow for most of the reasons you offer but unlikely to make the short list. One of my current candidates for the short list is also available at longer than 20/1 and I'll probably put it up on here in the morning once I've completed my deliberations.

Good luck with it.
 
The one I had in mind has come in a wee bit overnight but is still 20/1 in places as I write.

Mitchum Swagger

The good rating I have for him was from his excellent 1½-length third to Portage in the Hunt Cup last summer off 108. He’s been plying his trade in better class since then and returns to handicap company for the first time here off 105.

(I have other, bigger bets on Makzeem and Burnt Sugar.)
 
Thought I'd pop in to see what you've come up with Des and Mitchum Swagger is certainly one I'd considered. Its a very hot race though Imo and I could possibly have considered about 75% of the field truth be told.
 
I've also taken some very small win bets on Amazour and Mutawathea at the big prices on the exchange purely because they're way too big on their best lifetime form. Bit of fun, really.
 
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Haha race unfolds on the opposite side and the first 2 are probably the last 2 I'd ever have ever of backed.
 
Bit of a damp squib of a race.

No mention that Makzeem also fell out of the stalls but he appeared to be going better than anything coming to the later stages. Maybe he wasn't quite over his last race or maybe the ground wasn't really to his liking.

Mitchum Swagger got caught up in the over-fast pace set by Mutawathea, as did (I think) Burnt Sugar (had come from behind previously). I lost track of Amazour and will need to watch it again but it was only coffee money I lost on him (and Mutawathea) to cover the other outlay.
 
Sometimes when you dig around in the dirt, you just get your hands dirty, but now and again, If your patient enough, you can find a nice treat; I hope I've found one here.
Truffle's can be quite expensive, so lets not get to greedy, at 28/1 gen, we don't need to be.
Truffles: Nav 4.10 has run some decent races in defeat of late; leading and looking to be beaten for being drawn badly, excuses etc, etc.
Having won his maiden in similar conditions, the handicapper was quite harsh with the penalty. He's now come down to such an extent that the decent 10Lb claimer actually puts him on a mark 7Lb's lighter than his victory mark.
With a central draw, a rising ground finish to compensating for the distance drop (7 to 5). I can see him building up an easy lead in the early part, and the first time cheek pieces aiding his concentration in the closing run to the line.
Definitely good E/W value, and a candidate for this thread.
 
Maxbet said:
Sometimes when you dig around in the dirt, you just get your hands dirty, but now and again, If your patient enough, you can find a nice treat; I hope I've found one here.
Truffle's can be quite expensive, so lets not get to greedy, at 28/1 gen, we don't need to be.
Truffles: Nav 4.10 has run some decent races in defeat of late; leading and looking to be beaten for being drawn badly, excuses etc, etc.
Having won his maiden in similar conditions, the handicapper was quite harsh with the penalty. He's now come down to such an extent that the decent 10Lb claimer actually puts him on a mark 7Lb's lighter than his victory mark.
With a central draw, a rising ground finish to compensating for the distance drop (7 to 5). I can see him building up an easy lead in the early part, and the first time cheek pieces aiding his concentration in the closing run to the line.
Definitely good E/W value, and a candidate for this thread.
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Result doesn't always tell the story, went evens in running - U/L
 
Good luck Vm I have tried to respond to PM but don't know whether they are getting through good to see you over here.
 
I wasn't sure if I should put this on this thread or on the ante-post one but some of these qualify for this thread...

I'm off on Friday for a week in [hopefully] the sun so managed to get a look at the Cesarewitch last night and this morning.

I’ve only done down to a rating of 80 as this was the cut for last year. There’s a chance something below that will get in, in which case I’ll check them on Thursday.

Before the trial race a couple of weeks ago I was swayed by the argument favouring hurdlers on account of how they were trained to breathe in this type of race and it was vindicated in convincing style by Who Dares Wins and Coeur De Lion (just misses the cut at this stage) who were well clear of nicely-handicapped opponents. I’m going to focus again on the hurdlers here, ignoring most other Flat form.

This gives a handy-looking short list of: Snow Falcon (current best price 25/1, 44 on the exchange earlier), Lagostovegas (16/1 this morning), Swamp Fox (20/1) and John Constable (8/1). There wasn’t any sign of market movement earlier but I suspected that might come this afternoon as word of Paul Kealy’s (and maybe Tom Segal’s if he has one) Weekender selection gets out before the paper hits the streets.

The main two to go blue this afternoon are Withhold and Lagostovegas so I presume they are tipped.

I got some coffee money on Snow Falcon with Betfair (presumably won’t run but hey…) and then got 16/1 Lagostovegas just before it disappeared. The latter and John Constable obviously don't qualify for the thread, though. I mention them as part of the bigger picture.

I fancy the other two [Swamp Fox and John Constable] more, to be honest, and I think the latter will be very hard to beat. I'm hoping he'll still be 8/1 when the final decs come out on Thursday and I can hopefully get on once the NRNB kicks in. I also think Swamp Fox has a better chance than Lagostovegas on their best hurdles form but he isn't showing any signs of shortening just yet so I'm holding off in the hope that someone breaks rank and goes 25s.

I’ve no idea if he runs but I’ve also taken a little of the 66/1 (ew) on offer about Mister Manduro. Johnston has won this more than once as well as with a 3yo and the form of his Ascot race with Stradivarius could hardly be working out better – apart from him! If this has been the plan ever since he might run a big race.
 
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Mister Manduro out and JC and LTV don't qualify for the thread. Swamp Fox shortening and I haven't got on yet :mad: so it looks like Snow Falcon is the only real qualifier from that post. I might stick one or two rank outsiders up in the morning before I head off.

Meantime, I've backed one tomorrow: Nwm 4.10 Bear Valley 50/1, ew

I can’t not back Bear Valley after backing it recently. The chances are it’s just lost the plot but it was a fair third at the Shergar Cup meeting and earlier showed better form when also third in the KGV to Atty Persse and First Nation. He’s now 6lbs better off for a head with the latter. I don’t know anything about the jockey. On the face of it, an inexperienced claimer is a negative booking but she’s 16/83 for her two main employers and is actually 2/2 for Johnston and will make this weight. I expect he'll blow out again but if I were certain in advance he would run his race I'd make him favourite.
 
The one Flat race I do like to have a bet in, is the Ces - mainly due to it's place in the Jumps pattern, as a Lanzarote trial. :whistle:

Number 33 on the race-card is Friday Night Light; a modest Flat handicapper who has raced exclusively in France to date (at up to 12 furlongs), for Elle Lellouche.

This horse was recently bought by MC Pipe Racing, and put into training with David Pipe, for whom he has his first outing tomorrow. Upped-markedly in trip, the lightly-weighted Friday Night Light will sport a first-time tongue-strap.

Stan James offer a stand-out 50/1, which is a fair-price to be finding-out if MCP still has what it takes to plot one up.
 
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I did look at that one, GH. I don't think David Pipe plots them up the way Martin used to, not one with this profile at any rate.

He had a similar type - maybe even better - in one of the big staying races at Ascot first time up and he blew out.

Good luck with him.

There's another risk-laden thick piece in the race I'm taking a small interest in: Star Rider.

A bit like today's selection, he has good form in the right kind of races but has been in rank form this season apart from a fair effort behind Thomas Hobson in the Ascot Stakes. He's back on a mark off which he won here last October. It wouldn't be beyond his trainer to have saved him for this all season.

First Mohican has a similar chance to Who Dares Wins, I reckon, so shouldn't be 50/1 (which I've taken).

But I do think the hurdlers will prevail.
 
Just a roll of the dice for interest, DO. I've no idea what any of the actual form is worth.

I'm rather hoping Pipe Senior's icy-hand is on the tiller for this one, and that junior has little to do with it, beyond making the entry! :lol:
 
A few unknown quantities in the field; Friday Night Light being one of them. Cape Caster another. PLeased to see Star Rider mentioned because I had double *'d it for some reason but not backed it. I owe you one if it wins DO!
 
...I know it's aftertiming [sorry] but Gordon Lord Byron didn't deserve to start at 66/1 today.
 
Desert Orchid said:
There's another risk-laden thick piece in the race I'm taking a small interest in: Star Rider.

A bit like today's selection, he has good form in the right kind of races but has been in rank form this season apart from a fair effort behind Thomas Hobson in the Ascot Stakes. He's back on a mark off which he won here last October. It wouldn't be beyond his trainer to have saved him for this all season.
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I have to admit he wouldn't have been my first choice Des but both of the ones I fancied are out, one failed to make the cut the other Landsman looks as if Tony Martin threw his toys out of the pram when he saw the draw. I did take a good look at this Star rider though and I thought the noticeable thing was the first time tongue tie and the way he's been running does suggest it may help. The Car park draw is a bit off putting though.
 
This one just about qualifies as 20/1 still available with Sportingbet and was there with Bet365 last night but I reckon Minellacelebration has more than a squeak in the 4.45 at Chepstow today. Would surely have won last time but unlucky to be brought down at the last. Improvement required to win this but that’s certainly possible as only a 7yo


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