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The Long Shot Thread

Belated congrats on a good shout there, tiggers.

Today my bets include (all in the Irish National):

General Principle 22/1
Tell Us More 125/1
Alpha Des Obeaux 25/1
 
Also posted in the Fairyhouse thread:

Fairyhouse 15:30

I think Oscar's Den is worth an each-way dash in this at 25/1.

He won a Bumper and a couple of Novice Hurdles for Tim Vaughan three season's back, before managing to split two good horses in Garde La Victoire and Vieux Lion Rouge, in a decent Novice at Cheltenham's April meeting. He then had a long time off the track with injury, before moving to Ted Walsh's yard in March this year. He had his comeback run in a minor handicap hurdle at Limerick last month; making smooth headway in the last half-mile, before fitness perhaps took its toll, and he was ultimately a well-beaten 4th of 13 to Donegal Tuesday.

This was a promising-looking horse at one stage, and he gets in here off 116. If Ted has worked his magic, he could be extremely well-handicapped, and 25/1 is a price I personally can't ignore, in what is a wide-open and not particularly great race.
 
Kitegen 4.15 Chepstow, CD winner but an 11yo these days having his first run back over hurdles for four or five years and on a low mark now so is bottom weight.. Usually runs better fresh and hasn't run since January. I see Jamie Bargary who claims 3lb has been given the ride too. Currently still sixteen runners in the race and Oddschecker has him at 66/1 although worryingly that's a drift on virtually all books.Might be worth a small interest if you have some loose change in the pocket.
 
Thirsk 3.40

Worlds His Oyster 20/1 - 25/1 in a place

(Strikes me as better than he's been able to show the last twice and would otherwise be on a nice curve.)
 
Victoria Cup: Squats 20/1 and Heaven's Guest 25/1 (well they were when I backed them!) both strike me as overpriced.
 
York 2.20: Union Rose is the rank outsider (33/1 in a place) and might be ew value. Defeats in his last two runs aggregating over 70 lengths make for uncomfortable reading but he’s 4lbs lower than when beaten less than a length in a £100k Ascot handicap last summer when the ground might have been against him. The chances are something down the line is the aim rather than this race in which case he has no chance but at 33/1 I’m willing to venture a token stake to find out.

Edit - best price now 25/1. Not down to me, I don't think...
 
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Desert Orchid said:
York 2.20: Union Rose...
The chances are something down the line is the aim rather than this race
Click to expand...

Yep, just prepping for the future but didn't run badly. He was 8lbs better off with the winner for beating him 4 lengths in that Ascot race.

Didn't even get the place money... :(

Mind you, the 33/1 fairly smashed the SP even allowing for the non-runners.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Yep, just prepping for the future but didn't run badly. He was 8lbs better off with the winner for beating him 4 lengths in that Ascot race.

Didn't even get the place money... :(

Mind you, the 33/1 fairly smashed the SP even allowing for the non-runners.
Click to expand...

I followed you in and he ran a decent enough race for my 2 quid e/w.
 
Full Glass: 22/1 with Labdrokes (Prix Ferdinand Dufaure - 16:35 Auteuil)

The best young chaser in France is Edward d'Argent, but he misses-out - presumably through injury (though I haven't heard anything on that) - which renders this a wide-open and competitive event.

There are a number of promising types here, but there's a bit too much guess-work involved, for me to have any really strong opinions. On that basis, I've focused on horses who have run well in defeat behind Edward d'Argent, which has left me with Dalko Moriviere and Full Glass on my short-list.

Both have run solid-enough behind Edward d'Argent in previous outings; trailing him home at a respectable-enough distance, on more than one occasion. It's tight at the front-end of the market, where Dalko Moriviere is trading at around 5/1 co-3rd-Fave behind 7/2 chance Darling Des Bordes. Full Glass, however, is available at over 20/1, and I just don't get the price-discrepancy - especially since DM finished 8L behind FG in the Prix Fleuret, one of the recognised C&D trials for this race.

It's possibly down to the fact that Full Glass has been beaten in five of his six chase starts......though that will have quite a bit to do with the fact that he has encountered Edward d'Argent in all of them (he won his other start), and besides, DM is 0/4 over fences himself.

Possibly it's down to a perceived stable pecking-order, as Macaire's other two runners are the favourite and co-3rd-fave Burnt Out. Maybe it's exacerbated by Reveley passing him over for Burnt Out, whilst Lestrade himself has chosen Darling Des Bordes. At face value, that would appear to leave Kevin Nabet "picking-up the scraps".......however as he showed in yesterday's Questerabad, he is no back-marker at Macaire's yard, and even if Full Glass is considered a third-string, it's very-likely not by as far as Ladbrokes price implies.

It's wide-open, and I'm expecting Full Glass to comfortably out-run his price.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Fairly smashed the sp (14/1) though!
Click to expand...

Knew my fate a long way out - I have to believe that wasn't her running and will keep an eye on her. Had no idea she went off that short.
The horse made a very bad mistake at the 6th hurdle - took off early and landed straight on top of it - probably caused an overreach or something. I don't know how Rachel Blackmore stayed on - she is a very good jockey.
 
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