The Long Shot Thread

2.55 York - Tomily ew 28/1 - this is my main saver in the race but I have to be concerned that it is weak (so far I've only backed it win-only at betfair to small money). He has disappointed the last twice but on a going day is handicapped to win a race of this nature. This time last season his turf and AW marks were the same but he improved over the winter on the AW to a mark of 104. Last month’s disappointing return to turf has seen his handicap mark drop 5lbs. He carries the saver as he might be ridden to pick up the pieces off a strong pace. If they go too fast and if he is at the top of his game he could win but I reckon the favourite will be extremely hard to beat if he's on the job.
 
Yarmouth 3.55 Ripper Street 40/1 has relatively good c/d & going form in the context of this race - may surprise? 10/1 0n the machine 4 places 100/1 to win worth chancing minimum e/way bet
 
Running total

W -9, P -1.25, Total -10.25

6.10 Thirsk - Etiene Gerard - 66/1 1/4 4places generally

Typical Thirsk sprint here and I just think Nigel Tinkler's filly has to be chanced at this price. I would hope she's straighter for last week's comeback which was probably needed.

You could draw a direct comparison with her run 3 back over course and distance last August where she wasn't beaten far off 10lbs higher. She gets the assistance of Rachel Richardson tonight who is well worth her 3lbs claim and I'm hoping for an improved showing.

The bear case so to speak is that the filly has never won at the track and has run more poor races there than good ones. It may well be that she'll come to hand for a summer sequence but I'll take a chance later this afternoon.
 
A second selection for this evening:

Doncaster 8.20 - Scenery - 22/1 B365, 20/1 others 1/4 3 places

Eve Johnson-Houghton's charge steps up to 7f tonight for this class 4 handicap on Town Moor.

This filly ran a fair race over a furlong shorter on her comeback at Kempton where she was beaten 6 1/4 lengths. I thought thst was a fair showing and hope this daughter of Elnadim can show a bit more in this bigger field back on the turf under Ed Greatrex.

There's reason to think she could be well in tonight off the bottom weight of 8.9 OR71. Lady Dancealot who was one place ahead of her at Ascot in September in receipt of 5lbs won a novice at Goodwood recently and is due to contest her next race off 78.

The yard has been in fair form particularly with the handicappers with Ice Age winning yesterday. This one would certainly be interesting if a few quid came for her later on.
 
Huntington 7.40 Black Banjo 22/1 - race delayed as 7.10 hasn't gone off yet - This horse was not disgraced last time out, behind much superior opposition than he faces today and run in a fast time. I'm hopeful of a good run.
 
Explain 5:25 York....after Marble said he fancied this the layers took him on in great numbers, hence by racetime this should be a qualifier at 20/1!
 
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Alpha Centauri -4.10 Curragh. Stable had very high opinion of her last year and she was only just beaten in the Albany. Her poor runs have occurred when racing on ground that had heavy in the description. Today she runs on ground that will suit and on which she has a proven record. At around 20’s (and even 4 places with Sky) I am taking all I can get- not a lot- backing e.w. but geared so that place returns cover outlay.
No info but very hopeful. Also think JH might have a good day today.
 
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Uttoxeter 3.40
Surprised to see Roman Flight as big as 33/1 for this. Has won off 2lb higher and offered some encouragement last time out. Closely matched with Cut the Corner on that running and worth backing at nearly 3 times the price imo. Skybet paying 5 places but only 28/1


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viking said:
Uttoxeter 3.40
Surprised to see Roman Flight as big as 33/1 for this. Has won off 2lb higher and offered some encouragement last time out. Closely matched with Cut the Corner on that running and worth backing at nearly 3 times the price imo. Skybet paying 5 places but only 28/1


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Trust me to turn down the 5 places ffs


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Tout Seul said:
Alpha Centauri -4.10 Curragh. Stable had very high opinion of her last year and she was only just beaten in the Albany. Her poor runs have occurred when racing on ground that had heavy in the description. Today she runs on ground that will suit and on which she has a proven record. At around 20’s (and even 4 places with Sky) I am taking all I can get- not a lot- backing e.w. but geared so that place returns cover outlay.
No info but very hopeful. Also think JH might have a good day today.
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Very well done mate.very nice winner

And my mate says thanks
 
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Tout Seul said:
Alpha Centauri -4.10 Curragh. Stable had very high opinion of her last year and she was only just beaten in the Albany. Her poor runs have occurred when racing on ground that had heavy in the description. Today she runs on ground that will suit and on which she has a proven record. At around 20’s (and even 4 places with Sky) I am taking all I can get- not a lot- backing e.w. but geared so that place returns cover outlay.
No info but very hopeful. Also think JH might have a good day today.
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Very nice selection, well done.
 
viking said:
Uttoxeter 3.40
Surprised to see Roman Flight as big as 33/1 for this. Has won off 2lb higher and offered some encouragement last time out. Closely matched with Cut the Corner on that running and worth backing at nearly 3 times the price imo. Skybet paying 5 places but only 28/1


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Great pointer. I played the 365 extra places on this, thank you!
 
My record on here isnt good.tomorrow 220Leicester im interested in JAVELIN.25/1 4places.

When this run last time over 7f at this course a guy put this up on another forum aafter reading what w.muir had said about it.
He said nicole currie said it might be better over a mile,or something like that,so i watched it run and it got shuffled back and stayed on and after the line she had a job to pull it up.steps up to a mile tomorrow but n.currie isnt ridind so basically he is her 5lb claim h8gher.
Holly doyle rides.this is only his 2nd hcap and runs off 61.
I think,if they are trying,then it looks a value bet.
 
Two in 5.50 at Epsom today:

Swift Approval ew 20/1 (4 pl, Sky)
Albishr ew 50/1 (4 pl, Sky)

This is possibly a very weak race for really decent money. Most of these would be expected to struggle to make any sort of impact on a normal Class 2 £50k handicap and my gut says to leave well alone. Swift Approval is probably on the downgrade but closer inspection suggests his turf form is on a par with his all-weather and he’s on a winning mark, having popped up on the all-weather earlier this year off 91 (88 today) and under Murphy.

Albishr went up to 102 last season for running Mildenberger to a nose in a Listed race and started this season off 96 so his plummeting rating (84 today) could make him a blot if he were to make some kind of revival in the first-time cheekpieces for his local trainer.
 
I've decided to take a small punt on Flattering in the Oaks at 25/1 (ew, obviously).

She was 6/4 fav to beat Perfect Clarity (only 7/1 here) in the Lingfield Trial but I reckon she almost certainly bounced that day, only ten days after a wide-margin win in very soft ground. The slight worry is that the bounce effect usually takes about 42 days to subside so this is maybe still a bit soon but at least the ground should help her cause.
 
The price collapsed just after I posted that - no connection, I imagine :lol: - but the current 12/1 is much closer, probably, to her true odds.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Two in 5.50 at Epsom today:

Swift Approval ew 20/1 (4 pl, Sky)
Albishr ew 50/1 (4 pl, Sky)

This is possibly a very weak race for really decent money. Most of these would be expected to struggle to make any sort of impact on a normal Class 2 £50k handicap and my gut says to leave well alone. Swift Approval is probably on the downgrade but closer inspection suggests his turf form is on a par with his all-weather and he’s on a winning mark, having popped up on the all-weather earlier this year off 91 (88 today) and under Murphy.

Albishr went up to 102 last season for running Mildenberger to a nose in a Listed race and started this season off 96 so his plummeting rating (84 today) could make him a blot if he were to make some kind of revival in the first-time cheekpieces for his local trainer.
Click to expand...

Not much wrong with Swift Approval's effort and Albishr was still vying for fourth till late in the race.
 
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