The Long Shot Thread

Nonannyimfine said:
I've done two long shots for the guineas. Cardsharp can be had 100-1 and Murillo at 50-1. We live in hope :)
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I've been up since 3.30am (couldn't sleep) so spent some time checking some form.

The Coventry was a fast race so Murillo and Rajasinghe could have better chances than their respective odds if their stamina holds out. A little bit of me wonders why Murillo is still in the race, considering the Ballydoyle legions.

I don't know if I'll back either but they're on my radar.
 
I've taken 40/1 Headway in the 2,000. Pedigree suggests a mile will be close to his optimum, as did the visuals as a 2 year old and despite being a long way from what is required tomorrow, his first time out win at Lingfield this season was mightily impressive. Haggas has started the season in blinding form too.
 
wilsonl said:
I've taken 40/1 Headway in the 2,000. Pedigree suggests a mile will be close to his optimum, as did the visuals as a 2 year old and despite being a long way from what is required tomorrow, his first time out win at Lingfield this season was mightily impressive. Haggas has started the season in blinding form too.
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Another from the Coventry, if I'm not mistaken.

Lots of gushing about his AW win in the media at the time but the time doesn't amount to a great deal even with the 32lbs (or whatever it was) Timeform mark-up. I suspect it was a very weak race and that any of the big guns tomorrow could have done the same thing.

However, the Coventry form strikes me as an awful lot better and it's on that form that he can't be discounted.
 
It wasn't the bare form of his AW win Mo, it was the manner in which he won it. It's clearly a mile off what is required to win a Guineas but as you say, there's bits in his two year old form that give him a squeak.

He's clearly no good thing but we know he's fit and well whereas we're guessing with the likes of Saxon Warrior and Elarqam and quite simply I'd much prefer to back him at 40/1 e/w than the fav at 2/1.
 
I'm afraid I like Headway, too; has a bit of a turn of foot, and only appears to have been entered in 8f races so I assume they think he'll get the trip.
 
I think Headway might also have been a lot shorter than 40/1 shortly after that win and is probably too long at the price. I wouldn't attempt to put anyone off backing him. I think the market is a bit like the National in that a few horses are attracting punters like flies round the proverbial, leaving several others at much longer odds than their true chances.

Anyroads, first up for me today is:

Nwm 1.50 - Pactolus 28/1 (ew) - Pactolus could be thrown in. When he started improving his AW form was only 8lbs or so better than his turf form so his rise through the ratings in the last six months on the AW could leave him very well in off his old turf mark. The jockey is a concern, though. While the horse has a history of going well for apprentices, she contrived to get him beaten in the Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton. Josie Gordon she ain't, not yet anyway. Pactolus isn't my main bet in the race but he would have a very strong winning chance if he could be guaranteed to run within 8lbs of his AW form.
 
Desert Orchid said:
The Coventry was a fast race so Murillo and Rajasinghe could have better chances than their respective odds if their stamina holds out. A little bit of me wonders why Murillo is still in the race, considering the Ballydoyle legions.

I don't know if I'll back either but they're on my radar.
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I've backed both, at 66/1 and 50/1 respectively.

A couple of bookies are going four places, which I only noticed after I'd backed Murillo at the longer price. 50s is the best on offer for the four places.

I don't recall ever, in about 45 years of punting, backing three longshots in the 2000G (remember I'm also on Raid at 50s). Does it say something about me or about the race :confused:
 
Gwd 2.40 Mutawathea 28/1 ew - is just a generally consistent type in races of this nature but capable when he hits a peak of taking a race of this sort. The handicapper tends not to move him a lot and this isn't a great race. He'd need to peak to win this but it isn't out of the question. He was beaten less than a length off 2lbs higher in a good race at York last season and won off this mark on the AW just before Christmas. On a real going day he could win or certainly be placed. If he isn't on a going day the bet is donald-ducked.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Gwd 2.40 Mutawathea 28/1 ew - is just a generally consistent type in races of this nature but capable when he hits a peak of taking a race of this sort. The handicapper tends not to move him a lot and this isn't a great race. He'd need to peak to win this but it isn't out of the question. He was beaten less than a length off 2lbs higher in a good race at York last season and won off this mark on the AW just before Christmas. On a real going day he could win or certainly be placed. If he isn't on a going day the bet is donald-ducked.
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n/r
 
Three for today with the usual health warnings, especially since they all appear to be weak in the market...

Nwm 1.50 - Sofia's Rock 40/1 - Sofia’s Rock's form peaked here in the G3 Bahrain Trophy and he’s 4lbs lower than then. He may have to get to dictate his own pace, which Wolf Country might not allow, but I can see Buick being happy to get a lead off him. I might even play the forecast.

Nwm 2.55 - Tis Marvellous 33/1 - might be a lively outsider. A couple of runs down the park in Meydan may have been part of the plan for starting the season for real here. His previous runs last season were, in reverse order, against Caravaggio (G2), Battaash (G3), Caravaggio (G1 Commonwealth Cup) and Blue Point (G3) and he started the season off 110. After his final run he was gelded and missed the rest of the season. If he was thought good enough to run in that company he has to be competitive off 100. He may be one of those good juveniles who miss out a bit at three before coming back at four.

Nwm 3.35 - Worship 80/1 - Given the connections, I don’t imagine she’d be running here if they didn’t think she was up to running very well.
 
Only just catching up on the recordings after being out all day yesterday.

Sofia's Rock overdid the front-running tactics and the early signs are that even the group following it were going too fast, the principals coming from further back than midfield.

Tis Marvellous ran well, beaten just 1.5 lengths. Unfortunately he was still only fifth.

Worship was there just for the outing after all, never seriously asked to get involved. While I can forgive tactical errors like SR's, non-triers still irk me.
 
Running total - W-4, P-4, total -8

6.00 Beverley- Ideal Candy 33/1 WHill 25/1 generally. 1/4 3places

This race has the look of one that could throw up a surprise and I'll take Ideal Candy to do just that.

This 3yo filly isn't badly bred, being out of a Galileo mare. She showed fair form in her 5 starts as a juvenile hitting the frame 3 times at Newcastle and Wolves to the likes of Augenblick and Great Shot Sam. Both of those horses are now rated 80 and 74 with the prospect of improving as 3yo.

Ideal Candy has a nice inside draw today and if you're willing to forgive that last run then the filly could outrun the advertised odds. It doesn't look the strongest race and the Tutty family know how to train a winner around This track. The mark of 64 looks fair and regardless of what happens today I'll have this one in my tracker as one who could make a splash in some of these C5/C6 northern handicaps.
 
DanB88 said:
Running total - W-4, P-4, total -8

6.00 Beverley- Ideal Candy 33/1 WHill 25/1 generally. 1/4 3places

This race has the look of one that could throw up a surprise and I'll take Ideal Candy to do just that.

This 3yo filly isn't badly bred, being out of a Galileo mare. She showed fair form in her 5 starts as a juvenile hitting the frame 3 times at Newcastle and Wolves to the likes of Augenblick and Great Shot Sam. Both of those horses are now rated 80 and 74 with the prospect of improving as 3yo.

Ideal Candy has a nice inside draw today and if you're willing to forgive that last run then the filly could outrun the advertised odds. It doesn't look the strongest race and the Tutty family know how to train a winner around This track. The mark of 64 looks fair and regardless of what happens today I'll have this one in my tracker as one who could make a splash in some of these C5/C6 northern handicaps.
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What a cracking run,well done mate.
 
Cheers mate. A good run into a place. Happy to get one on the board after a couple of near misses and a couple of proper duff picks.
 
Running total W-5, P +3.25, Total -1.75

8th May - Brighton 3.00. River Rule 20/1 Paddy Power 1/5 1/2/3.

Apologies for sticking this one up early but back in work tomorrow and this one is short of the 20s with the other books.

To keep it fairly brief, River Rule couldn't break any ice in maidens for Stuart Williams before being moved to Tony Carroll over the winter. Takes his place in what looks a run of the mill low grade handicap for the 3yo.

This gelding had a run over what was an inadequate 6f trip around Wolves back in March. It was also a race run at a frantic pace which collapsed in the final furlong and half, with Mutabaahy picking up the pieces with River Rule a never nearer 6th having been slowly into stride and outpaced. Morris keeps the ride is something to bear in mind.

A mark of 50 looks very fair to me. His final maiden run on the Rowley Mile and handicap debut over 7 at Dunstall we're mildly encouraging.

A positive on what we know now has been the performance of Spring Romance who has won twice subsequently (inc today) and will surely be going up to 70+ the next time the handicapper assesses. Inuk has run two good 2nds before a close 6th today (beaten 2l) at Bath.

If Tony Carroll has him going forwards he will hopefully hit the frame at least.
 
DanB88 said:
Running total - W-4, P-4, total -8

6.00 Beverley- Ideal Candy 33/1 WHill 25/1 generally. 1/4 3places

This race has the look of one that could throw up a surprise and I'll take Ideal Candy to do just that.

This 3yo filly isn't badly bred, being out of a Galileo mare. She showed fair form in her 5 starts as a juvenile hitting the frame 3 times at Newcastle and Wolves to the likes of Augenblick and Great Shot Sam. Both of those horses are now rated 80 and 74 with the prospect of improving as 3yo.

Ideal Candy has a nice inside draw today and if you're willing to forgive that last run then the filly could outrun the advertised odds. It doesn't look the strongest race and the Tutty family know how to train a winner around This track. The mark of 64 looks fair and regardless of what happens today I'll have this one in my tracker as one who could make a splash in some of these C5/C6 northern handicaps.
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She certainly did out run her price, nice spot. Well done.
 
Well done Danny!

Fakenham 3.45 Shinooki 28/1 - might be worth risking a minimum e/way bet on this course specialist, who has had 8 runs at the course 3 x wins - 2 x 2nd's - 2 x 3rd's and a 6th btn 11 L when he burst a blood vessel. May now have gone at the game? But yet to run a bad race at the course.
 
Thirsk 3:55 Computable. An interesting outsider...now gelded and dropped in the handicap, I reckon this will out run its odds today, (about 16 / 20 /1). Good luck.
 
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DanB88 said:
Running total W-5, P +3.25, Total -1.75

8th May - Brighton 3.00. River Rule 20/1 Paddy Power 1/5 1/2/3.

Apologies for sticking this one up early but back in work tomorrow and this one is short of the 20s with the other books.

To keep it fairly brief, River Rule couldn't break any ice in maidens for Stuart Williams before being moved to Tony Carroll over the winter. Takes his place in what looks a run of the mill low grade handicap for the 3yo.

This gelding had a run over what was an inadequate 6f trip around Wolves back in March. It was also a race run at a frantic pace which collapsed in the final furlong and half, with Mutabaahy picking up the pieces with River Rule a never nearer 6th having been slowly into stride and outpaced. Morris keeps the ride is something to bear in mind.

A mark of 50 looks very fair to me. His final maiden run on the Rowley Mile and handicap debut over 7 at Dunstall we're mildly encouraging.

A positive on what we know now has been the performance of Spring Romance who has won twice subsequently (inc today) and will surely be going up to 70+ the next time the handicapper assesses. Inuk has run two good 2nds before a close 6th today (beaten 2l) at Bath.

If Tony Carroll has him going forwards he will hopefully hit the frame at least.
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Another good run Dan.strange betting tho. Only 8/1 last night with bet 365 went out to 22s and backed in to 12s.
Unlucky.but shows you are on the right lines.well done.
 
Marble said:
Thirsk 3:55 Computable. An interesting outsider...now gelded and dropped in the handicap, I reckon this will out run its odds today, (about 16 / 20 /1). Good luck.
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He came third today on his first run of the season after losing his form in 2017 and being gelded since then. So Computable is definitely a horse on my radar in future. He will surely come on a lot for the run. His action looked interesting, and I reckon he has an engine that we will see later this season. He could be this season's Golden Apollo for same trainer Tim Easterby but a long way to go.
 
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Outsider said:
Another good run Dan.strange betting tho. Only 8/1 last night with bet 365 went out to 22s and backed in to 12s.
Unlucky.but shows you are on the right lines.well done.
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Cheers Outsider. Definitely a funny little betting heat. Some books weren't taking the chance on the overnight markets and it was only when they reached something like parity this morning thst the support arrived.

The winner won well under an apprentice that should be in there pitching for the title. Happy with River Rule's 2nd though. Definitely a race or two for him off that lowly mark.

Marble said:
He came third today on his first run of the season after losing his form in 2017 and being gelded since then. So Computable is definitely a horse on my radar in future. He will surely come on a lot for the run. His action looked interesting, and I reckon he has an engine that we will see later this season. He could be this season's Golden Apollo for same trainer Tim Easterby but a long way to go.
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Well done Marble. Nice 3rd for Computable.
 
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