The Long Shot Thread

Savalas was still an excellent call even though beaten, DO. Well done! If you keep hitting the bar just lower your sights a little.

Thanks to you I grabbed some ew averaging 38 and laid off in running - somewhat prematurely, got a nice dose of adrenalin etc. and a reasonable pick up on a day when my support seemed to act as a 10lb penalty on the horses I backed.
 
Coventry Stakes - Barbill ew 66/1 - I thought about holding off on this one until Tuesday as there might be better concessions on the day but whether he'll be the same price I have no idea. He only has a couple of lengths to make up on The Irish Rover (12/1 for this) from their Newbury meeting and tried to come from further back. Should probably be about 20/1 max and Channon is no mug at bringing them to the big meetings.
 
King's Stand - Different League ew 33/1 - Washington DC actually looked as though he was just weighing Bataash up last time but the latter was a few pounds below form. Still, if O’Brien has finally got him on a curve he could be dangerous. However, Moore appears to have opted for Different League in which Coolmore have an interest. Her Albany win here last season was boosted by Alpha Centauri in the Irish Guineas and if she is regarded ahead of Washington DC (16/1 max at the moment) she has to be respected.
 
Just one more for today:

Asc 5.00 - Battalion ew 5pl 100/1 - Battalion is really chucked in on his best old form but he’s been very disappointing for a while now. As a result he’s now 15lbs lower than six months ago and six months is only the blink of an eye when Osborne makes a long-term plan. Remember, when he won the 2016 Britannia with Defrocked he said, "We don't have too many very good horses so when we get them you've got to plan them and this has been a plot since last autumn - it's great when it comes off." It simply might not be a plot and the poor beast might be in terminal decline but the fact he turns up here at all rather than end up in some Class 6 at Wolverhampton gives me a glint of optimism. For me he's worth a pop at that price.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Copied, pasted and edited from the RA thread:

40/1 Accidental Agent EW NRNB for the Queen Anne.

Following Paul Kealy in, to be honest, but we think along similar lines for big races and by the time I'd ended up studying the race I'd probably end up on the same one but missing out on the price.
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Top tipping DO


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Desert Orchid said:
Copied, pasted and edited from the RA thread:

40/1 Accidental Agent EW NRNB for the Queen Anne.

Following Paul Kealy in, to be honest, but we think along similar lines for big races and by the time I'd ended up studying the race I'd probably end up on the same one but missing out on the price.
Click to expand...

Worth a wee kaboom, I reckon :)

If I end up losing this week I deserve to be shot.
 
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Great tipping, DO. Pleased for you mate. Well deserved. Maybe Murphy went too soon on Lightning Spear (I don't know) but at least I got some each way returns.
 
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Some shout on accidental agent how did I miss that one?! :(

I've done a few tomoro at tasty odds.

2.30 Little Kim 33-1
3.30 Billesdon Bess 50-1 5 places
5.35 Tangled 50-1 5 places
 
Hoping for another strike today:

3.40 Promising Run ew 25/1 - Hydrangea or Aljazzi really should fight this race out but Arabian Hope isn't far off them on the figures but Soumi (SBS's main jockey in Meydan) is on Promising Run so might be closer to the front pair than her odds suggest.

5.00 Zhui Feng ew 7pl 20/1 (Sky) - the price is longer elsewhere but not to seven places. This is one of two I really like for the race (the other, Saltonstall, has taken over as favourite) and could easily win. He might have won the Victoria Cup on another day. The winner is now 6lbs higher, the fifth 4lbs higher and the sixth 3lbs higher having won off the same mark as in that race. I suspect Zui Feng will come on a bit for that run and should be better back up in trip. I think he is a Group horse although he doesn’t have any Group race entries at the moment, unlike Saltonstall.

5.00 Gabrial 28/1 (boosted, Lads) - Gabrial has been right at the top of his game so far this season and has Frankie back up after he steered him to an excellent third in the Diomed. I thought he was ridden to pick up the pieces that day but maybe Frankie reported that he could have done better. Either way, more than once this season he has posted ratings up there with his career best and they would win an average renewal. I just wonder if it might be a better than average renewal.
 
I hope you're right with Gabrial Mo as I've backed him too. Win or lose he was priced up too big, obivously on the basis that he's a nine year old now but the Diomed run (amongst others) show that he's still more than capable and he's a (potentially) good draw, proven course form and top jockey on board. Granted reasonable luck in running it's not hard to see him in the first 6.
 
Well done on yesterday Mo. Sure I put that up for the Lockinge on here. How they laughed.

Apologies I haven't been around much.

If you've done your spuds today by the time the last arrives then I think you could do worse than to chance a few quid in "the get out of the **** stakes" on Arbalet 50/1 generally. Good run in the solario last term didn't get home at Newmarket over the mile next time out (got a bit worked up). Breathing op since, poor run first time up which is forgivable and then won a nice prep race despite jumping the path.

My 3 against the field in the hunt cup are Raising sand, Firmanent and Burnt Sugar I was on all 3 yesterday at better prices than are available today hence not really suggesting them as bets now ... just need a small slice of luck haha.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
King's Stand - Different League ew 33/1 - Washington DC actually looked as though he was just weighing Bataash up last time but the latter was a few pounds below form. Still, if O’Brien has finally got him on a curve he could be dangerous. However, Moore appears to have opted for Different League in which Coolmore have an interest. Her Albany win here last season was boosted by Alpha Centauri in the Irish Guineas and if she is regarded ahead of Washington DC (16/1 max at the moment) she has to be respected.
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Just for future reference mo the jockey switch was to do with Donny being a fat little so and so (couldn't do the weight). Or so I'm told.
 
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Donnacha couldn't have done the weight on DL but I'm not sure that should be a reason for Moore not riding WDC if that was the main fancy. DL finished in front of WDC as it turned out so I got that bit right :lol:
 
Arbalet drifted to 100/1 and finished 5th 365 paid 5 places 1/4 odds close to the off so that will do me nicely. Good luck for the rest of Ascot fellas. Hopefully will be on a bit more regular in about 2 weeks time.
 
Danny said:
Arbalet drifted to 100/1 and finished 5th 365 paid 5 places 1/4 odds close to the off so that will do me nicely. Good luck for the rest of Ascot fellas. Hopefully will be on a bit more regular in about 2 weeks time.
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Well done danny
 
Desert Orchid said:
Just one more for today:

Asc 5.00 - Battalion ew 5pl 100/1 - Battalion is really chucked in on his best old form but he’s been very disappointing for a while now. As a result he’s now 15lbs lower than six months ago and six months is only the blink of an eye when Osborne makes a long-term plan. Remember, when he won the 2016 Britannia with Defrocked he said, "We don't have too many very good horses so when we get them you've got to plan them and this has been a plot since last autumn - it's great when it comes off." It simply might not be a plot and the poor beast might be in terminal decline but the fact he turns up here at all rather than end up in some Class 6 at Wolverhampton gives me a glint of optimism. For me he's worth a pop at that price.
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Strange ride imo. I backed at at 20/1 10 places and he give up.one to keep in mind DO
 
I've gone from hitting the bar to hitting the net to swiping and missing the ball in a few days...

Hoping for better luck today.

Asc 5.00 - Magnificent ew 50/1 - I have him tentatively top-rated on a tenuous form/time angle, on form that ties in with Masaarr which has an outside squeak in the earlier G3 race. He's worth a pop to small stakes but I do think Crack On Crack On could be a good thing.

Asc 5.00 - Full Moon ew 50/1 - There has to be a chance this is part of a prep for something bigger down the line but there's case for arguing that this is the best Coolmore horse in the race as it has better entries than Bond Street (and they won the race with War Envoy three years ago). It may be that they expect Bond Street to go close to enable them to go in heavily with Full Moon in something more valuable like the Goodwood Mile.

Asc 5.35 - Dukhan ew 25/1 - Shaped better than the bare form of the London Gold Cup which I think might be one of the hottest races of the season so far and links to Communique (much shorter) and Masaarr in the earlier Group race.

Asc 5.35 - He's Amazing ew 33/1 - Same as Dukhan in the LGC and has a similar chance and shouldn't be far away from Communique. I'm kind of putting my eggs in the one basket with them but sometimes that's how it goes.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I've gone from hitting the bar to hitting the net to swiping and missing the ball in a few days...

Hoping for better luck today.

Asc 5.00 - Magnificent ew 50/1 - I have him tentatively top-rated on a tenuous form/time angle, on form that ties in with Masaarr which has an outside squeak in the earlier G3 race. He's worth a pop to small stakes but I do think Crack On Crack On could be a good thing.
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Back to hitting the woodwork. Nice third at a lovely price. COCO lost any chance he had at the start. Losses only lent. My main saver was Curiosity which finished second and I had the winner as +p horse (along with many others in the race!) but never imagined him doing that to such a good field. Maybe was allowed to steal it. The pack appeared happy to leave him alone in front.
 
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