The Long Shot Thread

Fri Asc 3.40 - Unfortunately 50/1, 5 pl - When I saw that the top rated was just 116 on ORs I decided this race was best bodyswerved. However, Unfortunately is joint second-top on ORs and just one pound off the top on RPRs and while I don’t know anything about the jockey he seems to have an excellent strike rate in international races. At 50/1 and five places he has to be an each-way pop to little risk. The price is a bit of a headscratcher but maybe someone can offer some insight why it isn't in the front five or six in the market?
 
Desert Orchid said:
Fri Asc 3.40 - Unfortunately 50/1, 5 pl - When I saw that the top rated was just 116 on ORs I decided this race was best bodyswerved. However, Unfortunately is joint second-top on ORs and just one pound off the top on RPRs and while I don’t know anything about the jockey he seems to have an excellent strike rate in international races. At 50/1 and five places he has to be an each-way pop to little risk. The price is a bit of a headscratcher but maybe someone can offer some insight why it isn't in the front five or six in the market?
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I think its got a good chance.the jockey booking is a bit strange though.i dont think the stable was in form when he got beat last time.
I will be looking at bet 365 extra place market.
 
Sioux Nation & Clemmie double 24/1 - after talking myself out of Magic Wand and back on to Wild Illusion the other day entirely against my gut instinct I'm not going to let these two get away. If there is a 120+ sprinter in the Commonwealth Cup it is probably Sioux Nation and I expect 'The Lads' will be quite confident of beating Alpha Centauri with Clemmie. I wouldn't be in the least surprised if both halve in price by the off.

Sky are going 4/1 both, 4 places in the fillies' race and five places in the sprint. The place portion of the double looks a very good insurance policy and if they both halve in price you're getting 24/1 about a possible 8/1 shot. I've done the double each-way to double-strength stakes but luck hasn't been on my side the last couple of days.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Sioux Nation & Clemmie double 24/1 - after talking myself out of Magic Wand and back on to Wild Illusion the other day entirely against my gut instinct I'm not going to let these two get away. If there is a 120+ sprinter in the Commonwealth Cup it is probably Sioux Nation and I expect 'The Lads' will be quite confident of beating Alpha Centauri with Clemmie. I wouldn't be in the least surprised if both halve in price by the off.

Sky are going 4/1 both, 4 places in the fillies' race and five places in the sprint. The place portion of the double looks a very good insurance policy and if they both halve in price you're getting 24/1 about a possible 8/1 shot. I've done the double each-way to double-strength stakes but luck hasn't been on my side the last couple of days.
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I've taken both the above with Delano Roosevelt in the KEVII for a 99/1 treble, again with the place portion looking like reasonable insurance.

Also, I can see Rostropovich running a big race too (in the KEVII) and have taken him in another ew treble, the win portion of which pays 199/1 at best prices.
 
Clemmie is weak in the betting, presumably because AOB suggested in the RP that she isn't 100% yet. We'll have to wait and see with that one.

Other value longshots for me are (all in the 5.35):

Eddystone Rock ew 50/1 - (Copied from my preview of the race) This is a good race (but it always is). Tom Segal will probably end up lamenting that another valuable handicap has been won by some older exposed duffer that has no right being anywhere near a decent prize but I reckon that’s the beauty of the modern handicapping system. These old familiar creatures are given a chance to justify keeping them in training and delaying sending them over hurdles if that’s the case. That familiarity also often breeds contempt among the betting public and they can go off at longer odds than their form deserves. Take Eddystone Rock as a simple example. Last year he brought along his carry-out to the Lincoln, the City & Sub, the big 12f h’cap at the Derby meeting, this race, the Magnet Cup, the good 10f h’cap at Goodwood, another near-hundred grander at York, the Dubai Duty Free at Newbury, the £250k Balmoral at Ascot and finished off in the November Handicap. He raced over distances from a mile to 12f. He was off 100 in the Lincoln and in the November Handicap, beaten pretty much the same distance in both. When he went down to 97 he won the £44k race at York. In nine of those races he posted an RPR of 100 or more. Here he gets to race off 97 again so he has a chance to win yet he’s 33/1. Why? Because we think we know all about him. It’s familiarity breeding contempt.

Fire Fighting ew 33/1 - a possible Johnston special. Was rated 112 last spring, too high for h'caps not good enough for better races. Solution? Get him dropped as far as you can for a big pot at a course where you love to make a name for yourself. Fvck, we've overdone it, we need to get him a penalty to get in...

Carbon Dating ew 100/1 - another that's go a bit of back-class. He won a £100k handicap at Musselburgh last season off 101 and gets to race here off 2lbs lower. Familiarity and contempt as much as a few gallops in the Middle East. But those few gallops were in five races that averaged prize money to the winner of just under £64k so this is arguably a drop in class too.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Fire Fighting ew 33/1 - a possible Johnston special. Was rated 112 last spring, too high for h'caps not good enough for better races. Solution? Get him dropped as far as you can for a big pot at a course where you love to make a name for yourself. Fvck, we've overdone it, we need to get him a penalty to get in...
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I reckon I can just about script the post-race interview with MJ if he wins...

"Ach he's a lovable old rogue, so he is. He's a big favourite at home, we all love him. But he's been too honest for his own good and as he's been getting older he's just been thinking a bit and we've been waiting for him to come back to some kind of form. You know, he was rated 112 at one point and that was just too high for him and he was struggling in the better races cos he wasn't up to that class. But he's been showing signs of a revival at home and when he won the other day we realised the penalty would get him in here so we thought why not..."

Aye, right, Mark... :whistle:
 
One more:

5.00 Escape The City ew 100/1 - I immediately put a line through the race when studying the card on Wednesday. Fillies' races are bad enough at the best of times. Fillies' handicaps are a nightmare. Thirty runners in a fillies' handicap over a straight mile where you don't know what's been put away for a year for it or what steps the Clown of the Course has taken to water it turns a nightmare into your worst nightmare. But I had to look at the race to come up with a pinsticker for the comp and this one is it. Hughie Morrison doesn't send them to the royal meeting unless he likes them. That's my sole justification. Given that he doesn't send them here unless he likes them, she really shouldn't be any more than about 20/1. It's a total leap of faith in Hughie Morrison for me but it's only for fun money.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Fri Asc 3.40 - Unfortunately 50/1, 5 pl - When I saw that the top rated was just 116 on ORs I decided this race was best bodyswerved. However, Unfortunately is joint second-top on ORs and just one pound off the top on RPRs and while I don’t know anything about the jockey he seems to have an excellent strike rate in international races. At 50/1 and five places he has to be an each-way pop to little risk. The price is a bit of a headscratcher but maybe someone can offer some insight why it isn't in the front five or six in the market?
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Fuxake!!! How to live up to your name... Lost a lot of ground at the start, beaten a few lengths with the rider coasting for the last twenty strides. I reckon that might be another that got away.
 
Desert Orchid said:
One more:

5.00 Escape The City ew 100/1 - I immediately put a line through the race when studying the card on Wednesday. Fillies' races are bad enough at the best of times. Fillies' handicaps are a nightmare. Thirty runners in a fillies' handicap over a straight mile where you don't know what's been put away for a year for it or what steps the Clown of the Course has taken to water it turns a nightmare into your worst nightmare. But I had to look at the race to come up with a pinsticker for the comp and this one is it. Hughie Morrison doesn't send them to the royal meeting unless he likes them. That's my sole justification. Given that he doesn't send them here unless he likes them, she really shouldn't be any more than about 20/1. It's a total leap of faith in Hughie Morrison for me but it's only for fun money.
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Third at 66/1 sp. No complaints would never have beaten the winner in a month of Sundays but ran a cracker for such a longshot. I backed her for the win at much longer on the exchange and took 20/1 place only with the bookies.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Fuxake!!! How to live up to your name... Lost a lot of ground at the start, beaten a few lengths with the rider coasting for the last twenty strides. I reckon that might be another that got away.
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Just watched the race again from a different TV angle and I'm getting a different perspective on it. It looks like maybe she just couldn't go the early pace. I thought maybe she'd done a Crack On Crack On and fallen out of the traps but she broke level before being left behind. Maybe she's just coming back into form. Maybe she needs another furlong now. We'll see.
 
Fingers crossed for a bit more luck today...

2.30 Duke Of Hazzard ew 40/1 - One thing I learned years ago is that Paul Cole does not send his juveniles here unless he thinks they are top class, going back to 1991 when he won the Coventry, Norfolk and Chesham. He won the Coventry and Chesham in 1994, the Queen Mary in ’96, the Chesham in ’97 and the Coventry in ’98. His star has been on the wane as much as I have been on the wine since then but he still sent out a rare runner in Berkshire to win this race in 2013 after the colt recorded an RPR of just 80 on his debut the month before. Duke Of Hazzard, as the nature of this race dictates, simply has to be very well suited by the step up from the five furlongs of his two runs both of which will have been purely part of the learning process. It’s a leap of faith with Cole in this race but the price is huge.

5.00 Tis Marvellous ew 7pl 20/1 and Brian The Snail 25/1 - These are the only two qualifiers for the thread of plenty I could fancy in the race. My preview of the race:

Undrafted is an interesting runner. I imagine Dettori would have been offered several of these with good chances so he’s clearly been persuaded on to the American horse who has little chance on his form in the last year but who would be a good thing on his form of two and three years ago. Could WW have got him back?

Ryan Moore would also have been offered a few of these in the absence of a Coolmore rep. He won the Cammidge Trophy on Tupi early last season on his first run back from the Middle East and this is his first run since his return this season. He went up to 109 for Doncaster and gets in here off 9lbs lower. Growl was a close fourth in the Stewards’ Cup (on which he’s rated) off 109 so his chance is obvious off 7lbs lower. Out Do won for us last season and is rated on that run so he’s weighted to win an average renewal even off 2lbs higher but vulnerable to an improver, a lurker or a dark horse. Flying Pursuit peaked in the late autumn off 103 in ground with some cut. He’s nicely weighted here off 99 but the ground might an issue.

Apart from Undrafted and Tupi, other lurkers include Tis Marvellous, Danzeno and Mr Lupton. Tis Marvellous won the Robert Papin as a two-year-old and the four races in which he ran last year were won by Blue Point, Caravaggio (2) and Battaash. He could be one of those good juveniles that lose form a bit in their second season before coming back again the next season. He wasn’t beaten far in a very hot race won by Gifted Master early last month. Danzeno holds no secrets yet the handicapper has given him a chance but it’s a chance he’s failed to take so far. He was 115 at his peak, still 113 two seasons ago and won a hundred-grander off 104 last July, the form of which was franked by the runner-up in the Stewards’ Cup along with Danzeno himself who was beaten less than three lengths off 110. Off 102 here, it will take a proper winner to beat him if he runs his race but the Stewards’ Cup, maybe off a couple of pounds lower, might be better for him than this stiffer track. Mr Lupton stormed home late over the minimum trip at York but even after his rise is still a pound lower than when beating Eastern Impact at Newmarket last spring for which he went up to 113. If at his very best he could make them all go.

The unknown quantities are Victory Angel, Dreamfield, Reckless Endeavour and Brian The Snail. Victory Angel appeared to be using the race won by Gifted Master as a prep for something bigger and ended up finishing much closer than seemed likely at halfway. He’s maybe been kept off the track since then to preserve his mark. Dreamfield is a very short-priced favourite for a race of this nature but might just be the same kind of good thing as was Dash Of Spice yesterday. He had a reasonable field absolutely stone cold at halfway and clocked a fast time. His July Cup entry might not be too fanciful and Gosden isn’t one to tilt at windmills. Reckless Endeavour is harder to fathom but he looks much more consistent now – perhaps surprisingly – for Jamie Osborne on the all-weather. He’ll need to translate that ability back to turf and I’m not sure he can. Brian The Snail is of interest as he is ridden by Buick. Given how strong a hand Fahey has with Growl and Mr Lupton, and how highly thought of Dreamfield appears to be, he must have given Godolphin every reason to believe he had the horse, which he rated a Commonwealth Cup horse early last season, right back at that level and convince them to put Buick up although Dreamfield has always been ridden by Doyle. It might just be ‘his’ horse. Brian The Snail was odds-on for a Listed race early last season when rated 102. If he was a Commonwealth Cup horse as a 3yo he must have been rated at home around 115 and he’ll have needed his penalty just to make the cut here. If he is a 115 group horse, it would put him on 133 on the scale. Fahey could easily have the tricast in this race!

I suspect Dreamfield will win but can’t back him at such short odds so I’m going for, in order of preference, Tupi, Victory Angel, Tis Marvellous, Brian The Snail and Growl against the field.
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Desert Orchid said:
2.30 Duke Of Hazzard ew 40/1 - One thing I learned years ago is that Paul Cole does not send his juveniles here unless he thinks they are top class, going back to 1991 when he won the Coventry, Norfolk and Chesham. He won the Coventry and Chesham in 1994, the Queen Mary in ’96, the Chesham in ’97 and the Coventry in ’98. His star has been on the wane as much as I have been on the wine since then but he still sent out a rare runner in Berkshire to win this race in 2013 after the colt recorded an RPR of just 80 on his debut the month before. Duke Of Hazzard, as the nature of this race dictates, simply has to be very well suited by the step up from the five furlongs of his two runs both of which will have been purely part of the learning process. It’s a leap of faith with Cole in this race but the price is huge.
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I hadn't looked at the Windsor Castle (not my kind of race) but I see Cole has another runner today in that race, Li Kiu, and it's 200/1. I can't not back it!
 
Desert Orchid said:
2.30 Duke Of Hazzard ew 40/1 - One thing I learned years ago is that Paul Cole does not send his juveniles here unless he thinks they are top class, going back to 1991 when he won the Coventry, Norfolk and Chesham. He won the Coventry and Chesham in 1994, the Queen Mary in ’96, the Chesham in ’97 and the Coventry in ’98. His star has been on the wane as much as I have been on the wine since then but he still sent out a rare runner in Berkshire to win this race in 2013 after the colt recorded an RPR of just 80 on his debut the month before. Duke Of Hazzard, as the nature of this race dictates, simply has to be very well suited by the step up from the five furlongs of his two runs both of which will have been purely part of the learning process. It’s a leap of faith with Cole in this race but the price is huge.
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Thought he might win at one point but happy with third place.
 
Desert Orchid said:
5.00 Tis Marvellous ew 7pl 20/1 and Brian The Snail 25/1 - These are the only two qualifiers for the thread of plenty I could fancy in the race. My preview of the race:
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Close fourth for Tis Marvellous. I'll take it. It won't cover the outlay on the race but it was a tough race to fathom this year.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Light Pillar for one final pop, ew 20/1. The O'Brien boys teaming up...
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Fourth place pays. Covers the losing bet on Count Octave (which the jockey got beat, trying to show off).

Five longshots tipped on the day, 40/1, 200/1, 25/1, 20/1 & 20/1, three of them placed. Could have been worse.
 
Three for today:

Nwc 1.30 Suegioo 20/1 - Officially best in here (up 5lbs in future) Suegioo remains lobbed in on his older form. He’s still 13lbs lower than at the start of last season and 18lbs lower than his career peak of the previous season. If he’s back in the mood again they might not see which way he goes. He has to be worth at least a saver.

Nwc 2.05 Soldier In Action ew 6pl 40/1 - Without looking back through the thread I'm pretty sure I've put this one up already this season to no avail. He got a[nother] strange ride behind Amazing Red last time but has suggested more than once this season that the old ability is still there. He was off 110 in the Ebor last year and has won off 106, 5lbs higher than today.

Nwc 2.05 Curbyourenthusiasm 28/1 - Curbyourenthusiasm has a similar profile to Soldier In Action and has been on the receiving end of some highly ineffective tactics but might have won the Queen’s Prize but for a typical show-off Spencer ride. He’s 9lbs lower than when only 8/1 for the 2016 Goodwood Cup (G1) and later gave Watersmeet 6lbs and a beating off 105. He’d have a serious chance on that form and has looked to have been campaigned with a specific target in mind. Whether it is this we shall see.
 
Another I overlooked earlier:

Nwc 1.30 Cosmelli ew 50/1 - Cosmelli ran well in the big race last season off 99 so this is a fair old drop in both grade and rating and he has to be a danger.
 
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