The Long Shot Thread

Cheers, simmo. I was swearing at the end because my main bet was Euchen Glen and the jockey got it beat. Ridiculously over-confident. I have EG in multiples that I quite fancy. Compensation is ample though.
 
Utt 4.20 Toviere 33/1 - I don't normally follow the jumps during the summer but this came via a tracker alert. When it won a novices' h'cap chase at Ascot in November I had a very fast time for it. The form hasn't been franked, though, so maybe it was just the least slow race on the day. It was then off for five months before running well off 8lbs higher before disappointing a couple of weeks later. Maybe it bounced. Anyway, it's come back down 4lbs and if my time rating for it was anywhere near accurate (maybe it wasn't) it shouldn't be a 33/1 shot. I'm happy to pay to find out.
 
2.40 Worcester
Bassarabad just qualifies for this thread at 20/1 with Skybet paying 5 places. Gave himself too much to do last time when finishing 3rd beaten about 2 lengths having been 10 lengths adrift two out. The front two that day are now rated 121 and 123. This fella races off 117 today and has Dickie up who surely won’t allow him to race as lazily


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That was a cracking shout at the weekend Des I'd had a long weekend away so missed most of the action. Feeling refreshed and ready to get my head back in the form books myself although I've strangely found myself getting sucked into the World cup this year having not watched a game of football since they sacked Mick Mcarthy from the Wolves.

Hopefully be joining in again soon though.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Another I overlooked earlier:

Nwc 1.30 Cosmelli ew 50/1 - Cosmelli ran well in the big race last season off 99 so this is a fair old drop in both grade and rating and he has to be a danger.
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Just seen this myself Great shout DO.:adore: I tend to switch off when the flat season starts. My bad.
 
I was in a bit of a quandary about some of today's fare. I've shied away from putting a couple of qualifiers on here as, although I have backed them myself, they are among several I've backed in one race and I don't want to claim a possible big-price winner when they're only on the periphery of my financial commitment to the race.

I came on earlier to put up Hawkbill when he was 20/1 but no sooner did I start the motions than it dipped under 20/1. I've also taken Cliffs Of Moher at 20/1 as he might just have been brought along with this race in mind. On his day he is as good as anything else in the field (as is Hawkbill).

That looks like being all for today.
 
As I'd sort of pointed too on the Eclipse thread Cliffs of Moher looked less than eager to get going again Des he looks a real candidate for blinkers or something to sharpen him up I can't understand for the life of me why they haven't tried them. The horse obviously has some ability and I get the feeling he's just not putting it all in. Any thoughts Mo ?
 
It's not the kind of thing I look for, Danny, to be honest. I'm happy to leave that to better readers of horses' demeanour. He might just be flattered by his previous best, not unlike my main bet yesterday Montaly in the stayers race. For all the world I couldn't see how Nearly Caught could beat him yet he hammered him. Maybe Montaly did too much chasing the pace. Maybe Cliffs Of Moher should have been a wee bit closer. Hopefully the sectionals will help.

Yesterday was a bad day all round, between getting wiped out on the betting front, backing the wrong Johnston horses in the handicaps and the Turnips mashing the Swedes*.

(*Steve M gets the credit for that one.)
 
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Got to do MASTER CARPENTER 25/1 corals 33s in the john smiths.
Loves york and won this 3 yr ago and is down to a good mark.has been consistent all year.
Would love some rain but has won on firmish.
 
I can't see him making the cut. I had a small bet on him on Saturday there as I felt he needed the win to pick up a penalty just to give him an outside chance of making the cut. He's absolutely lobbed in on his best form.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I can't see him making the cut. I had a small bet on him on Saturday there as I felt he needed the win to pick up a penalty just to give him an outside chance of making the cut. He's absolutely lobbed in on his best form.
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Money back if it dont get in.i think.i hope.
 
True but they might take him out anyway. I thought about taking the risk but suspect he'll still be 25/1 if he makes it. I actually thought his run on Saturday was full of promise but the fact he was unplaced should help keep the price long.
 
Desert Orchid said:
True but they might take him out anyway. I thought about taking the risk but suspect he'll still be 25/1 if he makes it. I actually thought his run on Saturday was full of promise but the fact he was unplaced should help keep the price long.
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I agree. I think he has run well all season really.i was quite pleased when i realised he was 5th last week as skybet paid 5 places.
 
This looks like being my only one today:

Nwm 3.00 Music Society 100/1 (boosted) 5 places

This really only came on to my radar when I saw the price. I wasn't expecting it to be the rank outsider. I certainly wouldn't suggest it's my main fancy but I do think the long odds are generous. Music Society hasn't really done anything this season and as a result has come down 7lbs (while others are rising). If he was just in decline would they have entered him for the very valuable Gigaset race at Ascot in a couple of weeks' time? I have as much chance of making the cut there as he has but why enter him in the first place? His run the other week wasn't without promise and was his first since a gelding operation in May so that might explain why he was looked after when he didn't get a clear run. With another half a stone off today...

I can't see him winning given the profile of some rivals but I really don't think he should be 100/1 if there were sound reasons for entering him in such valuable races as this and the Gigaset.
 
Desert Orchid said:
This looks like being my only one today:

Nwm 3.00 Music Society 100/1 (boosted) 5 places

This really only came on to my radar when I saw the price. I wasn't expecting it to be the rank outsider. I certainly wouldn't suggest it's my main fancy but I do think the long odds are generous. Music Society hasn't really done anything this season and as a result has come down 7lbs (while others are rising). If he was just in decline would they have entered him for the very valuable Gigaset race at Ascot in a couple of weeks' time? I have as much chance of making the cut there as he has but why enter him in the first place? His run the other week wasn't without promise and was his first since a gelding operation in May so that might explain why he was looked after when he didn't get a clear run. With another half a stone off today...

I can't see him winning given the profile of some rivals but I really don't think he should be 100/1 if there were sound reasons for entering him in such valuable races as this and the Gigaset.
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My main bet in the race has now drifted enough to qualify:

Staxton 22/1 6 pl - I feared him as a dark horse in the big 3yo hundred-grander at York and he ran very well but improved upon that rating next time on the Newcastle Tapeta under relatively tender handling. I think he’ll come on again from there.
 
Desert Orchid said:
This looks like being my only one today:

Nwm 3.00 Music Society 100/1 (boosted) 5 places

This really only came on to my radar when I saw the price. I wasn't expecting it to be the rank outsider. I certainly wouldn't suggest it's my main fancy but I do think the long odds are generous. Music Society hasn't really done anything this season and as a result has come down 7lbs (while others are rising). If he was just in decline would they have entered him for the very valuable Gigaset race at Ascot in a couple of weeks' time? I have as much chance of making the cut there as he has but why enter him in the first place? His run the other week wasn't without promise and was his first since a gelding operation in May so that might explain why he was looked after when he didn't get a clear run. With another half a stone off today...

I can't see him winning given the profile of some rivals but I really don't think he should be 100/1 if there were sound reasons for entering him in such valuable races as this and the Gigaset.
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Tried to make all on the unfavoured side and was involved in the fight for second place on that side. For me, that justifies the selection. He outran his odds by some way.
 
Have you ever considered bet365 extra place markets DO.
I bet he would have been at least 20/1 10 places and he was 10th.
If i fancies a big priced one i will back it normally and then do a cover bet on the extra place market.
I never thought i would get excited watching a photo for 9th lol.
 
When my brain is in gear it might occur to me to look about at place markets but no sooner do you mention ten-place markets on here than it's in one ear and out the other. There's so little inside my head for info like that to cling to.

Note to self: check for 10-places!
 
Outsider said:
Got to do MASTER CARPENTER 25/1 corals 33s in the john smiths.
Loves york and won this 3 yr ago and is down to a good mark.has been consistent all year.
Would love some rain but has won on firmish.
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Glad to see this got in the race.in the last 10 yrs 9 winners were drawn 11 or over,the only one that wasnt was Master carpenter(1)
When he won it he was rated 103 and runs tomorrow off 93.
The negatives i suppose is a 7 yr olds have a poor record and he would probably be better with softer going.
But hes been running well and its a low mark and a good price.
 
Forget all the peripheral stuff.

I'm having a weekend away from home with Mrs O. If Master Carpenter has indeed made the final line-up I wouldn't want to be on anything else!
 
Master Carpenter qualifies for the thread today. Good thing.

Others of interest on a tough day by sheer dint of numbers:

Asc 12.45 Poyle Vinnie 25/1

Nwm 1.40 Shady McCoy 25/1 & Tupi 25/1

Nwm 3.20 Petrus 25/1

I'm really tight for time and can't explain but trust me they shouldn't be those prices. I'm not saying they will win, obviously. Even if they should be just 10/1 chance it's 1/10 they won't win. But they might give us a wee shudder along the way...
 
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