The Long Shot Thread

This racing game can be so frustrating at times.
BURNT SUGAR was put up on here by Danny in the victoria cup and i made money in the extra place market.
Euchen glen was put up by DO (i think) in the plate and skates in today.

I did 2 in the 140 and 2 in the 340 in 4 ew dbles. I had Burnt sugar at 25s and nothing with it.
I backed the other 3 in singles but not Burnt sugar.
Just one of those days.

Well done today DO.pity master carpenter couldnt do it.Petrus ran ok in 4th.
 
I'm waiting to see if one or two more qualify on price but for the time being:

Nwm 4.00 - Pactolus 22/1 - Not my main bet in the race and this one might just be as very stupid a play as when I put him up a couple of runs back at this course. He’s currently off 98 (was 100 last time) on the all-weather but has only raced once on turf since last July, the time before last here when nothing went right and his inexperienced rider never looked comfortable. Today’s jockey doesn’t exactly scream ‘positive’ but last summer his turf OR was 7lbs lower than his all-weather one so there’s a tenuous case for arguing he really should be around 91-93 on turf rather than 82. He might win by miles but he’s more likely to blow out again so it’s a win saver.

Nwb 2.25 - Percy's Word 20/1 - I'll be pleased to be able to put up my main fancy for this race if it drifts a wee bit to qualify but one whose profile I like is Percy’s Word. On his seasonal debut the other week he recorded a similar figure to his good form of last season so if that was just a prep for this and if he has come on for that run he might be much better than his rating and therefore under the radar.

Nwb 2.25 - Arch Villain 5pl 66/1 - is 4lbs lower than when a close fourth in the Ebor first time up last season under Pat Dobbs and is probably being targeted at York again but at such massive odds he’s worth an each-way saver with the extra place on offer. He's also had a run this season (in the Plate). He has been beaten a total of 86 lengths, though, in those two post-Ebor outings so which Arch Villain will turn up today? Dobbs rides him for the first time since York.
 
Curr 5.30 - Romiyna 60/1 (boosted) - I can't remember the last time I had a bet in any Irish flat race let alone the Oaks and the Coolmore domination and multiple entry strategy tends to kill my interest. However, Romiyna represents a formidable partnership in its own right in the Aga Khan and Dermot Weld so I was quite surprised to see how big she is in the market. She hacked up on her debut over 12f before unsuccessfully dropping back two furlongs at Naas. By Nathaniel out of a Lammtarra mare she's bred for stamina and a strong race - should Coolmore make it so - will suit her as well as any of theirs. The down side is that only two places are on offer, which probably partly explains the price. Still, I'm game...
 
Desert Orchid said:
Nwb 2.25 - Arch Villain 5pl 66/1 - is 4lbs lower than when a close fourth in the Ebor first time up last season under Pat Dobbs and is probably being targeted at York again but at such massive odds he’s worth an each-way saver with the extra place on offer. He's also had a run this season (in the Plate). He has been beaten a total of 86 lengths, though, in those two post-Ebor outings so which Arch Villain will turn up today? Dobbs rides him for the first time since York.
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Out to 80/1 with Hills but only 4 places.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Nwb 2.25 - Percy's Word 20/1 - I'll be pleased to be able to put up my main fancy for this race if it drifts a wee bit to qualify but one whose profile I like is Percy’s Word. On his seasonal debut the other week he recorded a similar figure to his good form of last season so if that was just a prep for this and if he has come on for that run he might be much better than his rating and therefore under the radar.

Nwb 2.25 - Arch Villain 5pl 66/1 - is 4lbs lower than when a close fourth in the Ebor first time up last season under Pat Dobbs and is probably being targeted at York again but at such massive odds he’s worth an each-way saver with the extra place on offer. He's also had a run this season (in the Plate). He has been beaten a total of 86 lengths, though, in those two post-Ebor outings so which Arch Villain will turn up today? Dobbs rides him for the first time since York.
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I've taken another pop at this race purely on account of the price. Newlands isn't too far off the top of my ratings list for the race but is a huge price. Obviously I prefer others but I can't resist a wee nibble at this one. I took some coffee money at over 400/1 at Betfair and 16/1 place-only at Ladbrokes but he's 25/1 to place if you have a Betway account.
 
Market Rasen 2.05 All Set To Go is clearly an unreliable sort and spat the dummy last time out having scored at Stratford the time before. Also spat the dummy at Newton Abbot but ran a decent race in the Swinton prior to that. He’s won off a higher mark before and may be worth a small interest at 40/1 (boosted to 45/1 with Lads) in the hope he’s on a going day


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viking said:
Market Rasen 2.05 All Set To Go is clearly an unreliable sort and spat the dummy last time out having scored at Stratford the time before. Also spat the dummy at Newton Abbot but ran a decent race in the Swinton prior to that. He’s won off a higher mark before and may be worth a small interest at 40/1 (boosted to 45/1 with Lads) in the hope he’s on a going day


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Well clearly this wasn’t a going day. Fair play to the winner but shocking riding by all the other jocks


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Beverley 8:30...ARIZONA SUNRISE Each Way. My main comment is to watch the betting for a market move. This horse used to be with Richard Hannon, changed hands to David Brown, won a race at Musselburgh one day when well-punted, then moved on to Tina Jackson. Arizona Sunrise clearly has a slight preference for a right handed track having won at Musselburgh. That was after a break and tomorrow is the horses first start this season, after an eye-catching effort at Newcastle at the back end of 2017. Comments that day read 'never involved, but made late headway,'. The video evidence backs up those comments. The horse looked like it would come on a lot for the run. This can out run odds of 50/1, (Ladbrokes) but as I said, a market move might be an even better indicator for a good run. This could be well handicapped on very best form. I wouldn't be at all concerned that it runs from one pound out of the handicap.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Master Carpenter qualifies for the thread today. Good thing.

Others of interest on a tough day by sheer dint of numbers:

Asc 12.45 Poyle Vinnie 25/1

Nwm 1.40 Shady McCoy 25/1 & Tupi 25/1

Nwm 3.20 Petrus 25/1

I'm really tight for time and can't explain but trust me they shouldn't be those prices. I'm not saying they will win, obviously. Even if they should be just 10/1 chance it's 1/10 they won't win. But they might give us a wee shudder along the way...
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PETRUS for us again.
 
Just one today for me:

Asc 4.45 Blue De Vega 20/1 - Not my main bet in the race but Blue De Vega was the big fancy of the ITV mob for the Wokingham following his eyecatching run in the Dash, presumably backed up by stable information, and is 3lbs lower today than at Epsom. He is, very surprisingly, the outsider of this field and worth a stab even though he’s never actually won at shorter than seven furlongs. It may be they’re accepting he won’t make the cut now for next week even with a penalty and are merely prepping for the consolation race but I’ve found to my cost that sometimes you can overthink these things.
 
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Thanks, guys.

Genuine mixed feelings about the day. The main bet in that race was Golden Steps which, like the winner, I opted for win only (16/1) but I also had both in trebles with Speedo Boy (6/1, w3/1) and Austrian School (2/1, L 6/4f)). The Johnston horse has beat me for a 440/1 treble which would have paid for the [second-hand] Jag I've got my eye on!
 
So far just one for today:

Asc 3.00 Brian The Snail 40/1 6pl - Again not my main bet in the race. He’s clearly impressing at home (while disappointing on the track) for Buick to be engaged in both the Wokingham and this so has to carry some sickness insurance. Godolphin, I imagine, would have had no shortage of prospects for this race so they must think he's an awful lot better than the formbook says.
 
By the way, Marble, I think you're mad not to be taking some form of sickness insurance about Mukalal at 33/1 today. If I thought my reasons for backing him last time were sound they should be just as sound for this race. I wouldn't let one bad run put me off, especially since he was backed almost into favouritism then.

I won't be backing him myself as I didn't fancy him last time either but one bad run doesn't make him a bad horse.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Small profit on those two, Outsider. Not to be sniffed at. :)
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Cheers DO,profitabe day but i dont think east street revue was ever trying.3 months of sun and then the going changes.
Fentiman and Kingscoat on muscika stopped riding inside the last furlong.all i needed was a 6th place.
Has for the discussion on flaming spear,he caught my eye in mid race and had every chance,the stewards cup might be a good move.
 
Three for today so far:

Gwd 1.50 Not So Sleepy 22/1 - Adam Kirby has actually won this the last three seasons and we know Hughie Morrison doesn’t send them to festival meetings unless he likes their chances so Not So Sleepy might well outrun his longish odds. He's among my top ratings for the race.

Gwd 1.50 Thomas Cranmer 22/1 - Another who might be under the radar is Thomas Cranmer. Rated 93 this time last year when trained by Mark Johnston, connections got rid of him at the start of this season but Tina Jackson appears to be coaxing him back to form and has him improving several pounds from race to race lately. This might be as good as he is, ie she might just have got him back to his old level, but if he can improve another 7lbs, who knows what he might do here.

Gwd 3.00 Karar 20/1 - It's a bit tenuous whether this qualifies as he's only 20s with one outfit (Marathon) and 25 on the exchange but he might drift again. This race is more like a glorified handicap with only 6lbs between them all on current ORs and 8lbs on RPRs. My gut says to leave the race alone but the two who might just be over-priced are Suedois (13/2) and Karar. The latter was supplemented for the race by the sponsors so I presume they didn’t pay all that money just to see their colours on show.
 
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