The Long Shot Thread

Colin Phillips said:
Theglasgowwarrior went well, DO.
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Poor tactical ride all the same, Colin. I suspect it was a minor job that didn't come off. Framley Garth wasn't there to win as it turned out. Maybe it struggled with the track but it didn't look good to me. It was a bit further back than I like to see through the race and I thought the jockey passed up two or three clear opportunities to switch into a challenging position in the straight but he didn't make a serious move until the cause was lost.

It was a great race for the spectators, though!
 
It's a pretty quiet betting day and I won't get to see much of it anyway. I haven't identified any longshots I can fancy on their own so I'm suggesting an each-way treble on:

Arcanada (Chs 2.05, 14/1)
Master Carpenter (San 2.25, 11/1) and
Aquarium (Bev 3.55, 12/1)

I've backed all three in singles and an ew treble. The place portion of the treble will pay better than 60/1 should things go my way.

Just a bit of fun, though.
 
Not a good day so far.

At least Aquarium has halved in price.

I've also stuck a small ew on Zorion in the Irish Cambs. On jockey bookings it looks like Godolphin's first string, in which case 33/1 is far too big.
 
Fvck.

Right now I'm really feeling like giving up for good. Three non-triers.

No market confidence in Master Carpenter at all, gave up very easily after going well turning for home. Early market support for Arcanada was more promising but he ran exactly the same way, going well until giving up turning for home. Aquarium missed the break but the jockey complicated matters by keeping it on the rail when it was clear the one beside it was constantly bullying it. Then he went for a run through the field and failed several times before switching to make a token late effort.

I don't mind losing. I mind not getting a run for my money.

No doubt I'll change my mind but right now I don't want to see another race until the Hennessy.
 
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Okay gone for 18.05 lambs lane 33/1 and 18.45 moon king 40/1. If I don’t get a place I promise i will never defile this thread again :)
 
Only two today, both in the same race.

Asc 2.45 Belle Meade 33/1 & Tupi 40/1

Belle Meade is one for which my figures are at odds with the likes of RPRs. However, she was rated 92 last year before her form tapered off. Last time out she made a sudden return to form off just 81 and she’s been put up 8lbs for it but she won by a very easy looking seven lengths. I wonder if the handicapper was tempted to go higher. Lines through the beaten horses suggest she’s worth more than the 8lbs rise. I’m not sure if her then rider Jason Watson could claim his full allowance here so that might explain why Nicky Mackay gets the ride. At a nice price, I’m happy to take a chance.

Tupi is as much about sickness insurance as anything else since I've put him up more than once this season. He has disappointed time and again but was dropped to claiming company last time and did a bit better. He was claimed out of that race and I’m interested that Hughie Morrison opts for a race of this value for his debut for him. Tupi, remember, was rated 109 this time last season and was running very well off 106 in Meydan earlier this year. He could be thrown in off 93 if the change of environment rekindles his enthusiasm.
 
Wolverhampton 7:15 Murqaab. 20/1. Immature two year old, ran very green first start, but that was arguably his best run to-date. After a poor performance the last day, you'd think he'd have benefitted from a 41 day break. I fancy he will out run his odds, first-time out in a handicap. Admittably educated guess work, so maybe market confidence would help his chance. I'm in for a penny, in for a pound, as the saying goes.
 
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Chester 5.15

How the hell is Baltic Prince 22/1? Won this race three years ago off of 65. Dropped to 71 now after being sent off 6/4 at Brighton. Was 4th beaten under two lengths at Chester the time before that. In good form and very competitive off the mark. Surely he should be a 7/1 or 8/1 shot here.
 
SlimChance said:
Chester 5.15

How the hell is Baltic Prince 22/1? Won this race three years ago off of 65. Dropped to 71 now after being sent off 6/4 at Brighton. Was 4th beaten under two lengths at Chester the time before that. In good form and very competitive off the mark. Surely he should be a 7/1 or 8/1 shot here.
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That's the essence of the thread!

Two for me today, both in the same race again.

Don 3.00 Cliffs Of Dover 40/1 & Time To Study 28/1

Cliffs Of Dover, you'll recall, is one I put forward for big things during the last NH season. He was rated 145 eventually over hurdles and could be thrown in off his mark of 88 today. It seems what EC1 used to call recency bias is being overplayed here as he really wouldn't win on his form last time out but before that he slaughtered some decent markers. His racing style might make him vulnerable to overdoing the pace but that's factored into the price for me.

I've put up Time To Study already this season. He was one of my long-term Ebor fancies but he appears to have forgotten how to run well after looking better than ever earlier in the season. The handicapper has been unusually slow to drop him too. To be honest, this is no more than sickness insurance but on his best form he has the winning of this.
 
Grace To Grace could maybe have been second with less messing about through the race but the winner skooshed in. No complaints. Looks like I smashed the SP too.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Don 3.00 Cliffs Of Dover 40/1 & Time To Study 28/1
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Both ran well but just not quite well enough. I'd say they outran their odds so won't complain too much. I'm just glad Theglasgowwarrior and Austrian School didn't get up! They were on my short-list and I managed to find reasons not to back them.
 
First up for tomorrow, which I suspect might halve through the morning:

Don 1.50 (Portland) - Lancelot Du Lac 33/1 - he's 2lbs lower than when winning last year's Stewards' Cup so his class is not in question. Clearly it's his recent turf form that's got him at such a ridiculous price. He even won on the AW off 3lbs higher than at Goodwood for which his mark went up to 110. His runs since his last win were in a Listed race behind The Tin Man, the Wokingham and the Stewards' Cup again but the midsummer fast ground maybe hasn't suited him. With today's rain he might be able to let himself down rather than his backers!

Also in the Portland - Abel Handy 25/1 - He went up to 105 (off 96 here) for winning the Cornwallis but has failed to figure in a light campaign so far. James Doyle takes over for the first time since the Cornwallis so if that suggests they think he’s on the way back he could go close and maybe even win. He's blue across the board as I write.
 
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Next up...

Don 3.35 (St Leger) - Nelson 100/1 - Nelson has the strongest stamina aptitude according to dosage expert Steve Miller (see his item in the Weekender) and it may be that he’s been waiting all season for this. He’s also still in the Arc and Melbourne Cup. He won the Ballysax first time up this season before losing his form, possibly with a lucrative back-end campaign in mind. He’s a big price if his Ballysax rating is correct.
 
I have half an eye on Nelson (boom boom)can see him setting a good gallop -a good play to lay on the machine at 3 figure prices.
 
Next up...

Leo 6.00 Fas 50/1 - not far off top rated on ORs/RPRs and won a G3 in France last season so probably should be shorter, around the 12/1 mark, maybe?
 
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