The Long Shot Thread

Desert Orchid said:
Not my main bet in the race, though, and I have another for the race which should still qualify in the morning.
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Not the main bet (that's Kimberella, fwiw), but the main saver is Dakota Gold 33/1 (boosted/5pl) - Michael Dods is a seriously shrewd trainer and the horse’s hitherto generally disappointing campaign has seen him drop 9lbs, possibly with something like this race as a long-term goal.

That and Marie Of Lyon in the same race are the only longshots I have today. I'll be happy to get a return from either.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
the main saver is Dakota Gold 33/1 (boosted/5pl) - Michael Dods is a seriously shrewd trainer and the horse’s hitherto generally disappointing campaign has seen him drop 9lbs, possibly with something like this race as a long-term goal.
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First home on the far side. I need to settle for the place return but pulled like a train through the race too. A wee bit unlucky but the winner was some way clear on his side.
 
One of my other bets today has now drifted to a qualifying price:

Nwm 4.30 Great Hall 25s in places - Great Hall is a pound lower than when winning a race of similar value at Ripon earlier in the season, has course form, Berry has a good strike rate on him (three wins and two places from nine rides while two of the unplaced rides were when 20/1 or more in stronger races) and the ground will suit so he has to be a decent percentage shout. I've split my stake between him and my other fancy in the race which is worryingly weak (Huge Future).
 
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Fran Berry reported Great Hall "was never travelling". Losses lent.

Today, just the one qualifier:

4.15 Watersmeet 33/1 - 9lbs lower than when a good fourth in the Plate and probably simply better now on the AW but wasn't beaten far off 101 in last year's Chester Cup and gets to race off 97 here.
 
Just been reading through the Ebor Meeting thread.

Edgt reckons:
Thunder Snow at 25/1 is the value of the day.
A proper Group 1 horse, hard knocking with no bad run since his Kentucky Derby blip, he would be value to me at half the price.
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Now that I look at it again, he has a good point. He's rated 124, therefore second top on ORs. It may be that, like Watersmeet, he's better on all-weather surfaces but he's worth a small bet at the price.
 
Oh well, Watersmeet didn't look like a 33/1 when challenging for the lead for a furlong or so at one stage in the straight but was eased down when beaten.

Thunder Snow lost two shoes.

Just one qualifier today and to be honest it wasn't on my radar until I saw the betting as I fancy two others a wee bit more and assumed this one was about 12/1. It's actually 28/1 with a couple of minor firms and 25/1 with 5 places at Betfred. Sea Fox (3.00 York). He beat my horse Shanghai Glory last time and I thought did so cosily. He was very well handicapped on his best old form and still is off just 4lbs higher. If he's simply back to form he should be in the mix.
 
Sea Fox was trying but just not strong enough in the final stages. I've possibly over-rated him on his older form or maybe he wasn't 100% over his recent win.

A few today...


3.35 Caspian Prince 28/1 - I think this should be a safe-ish bet for a place and if Battaash blows out he could win. His handicap form this summer suggests he is a G2 minimum sprinter and maybe third best [of this field] after the favourites. However, I've only backed him in the market without the favourite at a price that wouldn't qualify for the thread.

4.50 - three (should be four!!) qualifiers:

Dream Today 20/1
Tangled 33/1
Queen's Sargeant 100/1

My main bet is Zap which was a qualifier last night at 20/1 but has shortened up this morning. I have small savers on the three above as, according to my figures, they all have a very fair chance of winning and should be much shorter than their odds.

From my preview:

This is interesting. Take out the top three [in my ratings table], two of which are rated on their official mark earlier in the season, and there are only 4lbs between the rest. We’re getting to the stage of the season where this happens more and more often as the horses become more exposed and the handicapper gets a tighter grip on them so it’s the kind of race where the big improvers tend to come to the fore. The most likely of them are Crack On Crack On and Urban Aspect. Much as I am a fan of Crack On Crack On, I’m not sure this course will suit his running style and if he loses ground out of the gate again he could be in trouble. Andrew Balding’s horses are in phenomenal form but Urban Aspect heads the market and that makes me doubt if there’s any value in his price. This brings me back to Zap who is rated to win an average renewal, appears to be still on a curve and is a lovely price. He has to be a very solid each-way shout at 20/1 overnight. Tangled (33/1), Dream Today (14/1) and Queen’s Sargeant (50/1) are all long enough to merit small bets.
 
Ultimately not good enough yesterday. I was out all day and didn't catch up until very late. Queen's Sargeant ran really well for a 100/1 shot, disputing the lead for a long way up the straight. Dream Today nabbed a place and Tangled wasn't far behind in sixth.

First up today:

York 1.50 Morando 22/1 - I have him joint-second top on my ratings and he's only 1lb behnd RPRs' second-top so should he really be such a big price? He's lightly raced so might be fresher than some of these, the stable is in blinding form and the worthy favourite Lord Glitters might just not fancy fast ground too much.
 
Next up:

Yrk 4.50 Thomas Cranmer 28/1 (33/1 with one firm but they won't let me on each-way) - I put this one up a couple of weeks ago and things didn't happen for him. I'm keeping a bit of faith with him here.
 
Next:

Gwd 3.15
Reckless Endeavour 33/1
Mr Scaramanga 50/1

Reckless Endeavour was a Jamie Osborne sleeper but was claimed after his race last time. If Barron can unleash the real horse here he can win, let alone go close.
Mr Scaramanga is plummeting down the ratings but has hinted at retaining some ability and if he decides to put an effort in today he's another who could win on his best form.
 
Last but not least, in the Ebor:

Montaly 25/1
Time To Study 33/1

Montaly is my main bet in the race (with Teodoro the main saver at 14/1).

From my preview:

Confidence in these York handicaps is severely dented this week with the ratings not really working out. I find it strange that they should have done so well at Ascot and Goodwood yet so badly at this meeting. It’s making me wonder if I really should bother. Teodoro deserves to be favourite but he dropped back in trip last time to 10f to break the track record at Haydock so stepping back up another half-mile might bring its own problems. I was originally very sceptical about the value of that Haydock race but I’ve double-checked some of the other form lines and, while it’s still possible that it was a dodgy result, the time and those other form lines suggest it’s more likely that the form is unusually good. If my reading of the form is correct, only the trip can beat Teodoro. I’ve backed Montaly a couple of times this season and not been impressed with how it has run but when it turns up here you have to wonder if this is a season-long plan. Similar remarks could apply to Time To Study and Fun Mac while Nakeeta has a fair enough chance of repeating last year’s win for similar reasons. I got a tracker alert for Blakeney Point because I’ve suspected he hasn’t been asked serious questions so far this season. Stratum impressed last time having needed to win to make the cut for this but his resultant rise will also compromise his chance; nevertheless he deserves to be close to favouritism and a win would be no surprise but he’s unlikely to be gifted the easy lead he got last time. I said some time back that Godolphin had a handful of qualifiers for the race so I’m intrigued that none takes up the engagement in such a valuable race while Buick ends up on a Mullins horse. Further intrigue is provided by Berry’s presence on Saunter. He rode my selection Great Hall in Saunter’s race last week and had the beating of him on form but Great Hall ended up tailed off with Berry reporting that the horse was never travelling. I suspect Saunter was gifted that race to ensure his qualification for this.

As usual, it’s a hugely competitive race and I could back half of them and not be confident of winning. However, I’m going to allow the figures to dictate the bets and will nominate Montaly as the main bet with savers on Teodoro, Time To Study, Nakeeta and Blakeney Point.
 
Desert Orchid said:
First up today:

York 1.50 Morando 22/1 - I have him joint-second top on my ratings and he's only 1lb behnd RPRs' second-top so should he really be such a big price? He's lightly raced so might be fresher than some of these, the stable is in blinding form and the worthy favourite Lord Glitters might just not fancy fast ground too much.
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Non-runner. One stake saved...
 
Desert Orchid said:
Last but not least, in the Ebor:

Montaly 25/1
Time To Study 33/1

Montaly is my main bet in the race (with Teodoro the main saver at 14/1).

From my preview:

Confidence in these York handicaps is severely dented this week with the ratings not really working out. I find it strange that they should have done so well at Ascot and Goodwood yet so badly at this meeting. It’s making me wonder if I really should bother. Teodoro deserves to be favourite but he dropped back in trip last time to 10f to break the track record at Haydock so stepping back up another half-mile might bring its own problems. I was originally very sceptical about the value of that Haydock race but I’ve double-checked some of the other form lines and, while it’s still possible that it was a dodgy result, the time and those other form lines suggest it’s more likely that the form is unusually good. If my reading of the form is correct, only the trip can beat Teodoro. I’ve backed Montaly a couple of times this season and not been impressed with how it has run but when it turns up here you have to wonder if this is a season-long plan. Similar remarks could apply to Time To Study and Fun Mac while Nakeeta has a fair enough chance of repeating last year’s win for similar reasons. I got a tracker alert for Blakeney Point because I’ve suspected he hasn’t been asked serious questions so far this season. Stratum impressed last time having needed to win to make the cut for this but his resultant rise will also compromise his chance; nevertheless he deserves to be close to favouritism and a win would be no surprise but he’s unlikely to be gifted the easy lead he got last time. I said some time back that Godolphin had a handful of qualifiers for the race so I’m intrigued that none takes up the engagement in such a valuable race while Buick ends up on a Mullins horse. Further intrigue is provided by Berry’s presence on Saunter. He rode my selection Great Hall in Saunter’s race last week and had the beating of him on form but Great Hall ended up tailed off with Berry reporting that the horse was never travelling. I suspect Saunter was gifted that race to ensure his qualification for this.

As usual, it’s a hugely competitive race and I could back half of them and not be confident of winning. However, I’m going to allow the figures to dictate the bets and will nominate Montaly as the main bet with savers on Teodoro, Time To Study, Nakeeta and Blakeney Point.
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Enjoyed the read. "Only the trip can beat Teodoro". Agreed!
 
I've found a qualifier at Chelmsford tomorrow. Samphire Coast, (2:30), has shown excellent form at this track, with three wins from last five starts here. So I rate him as good each way value at 25/1. The favourite may be hard to beat, but my fancy looks overpriced.
 
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16.00 going to go for the complete outsider here with kodiac express. Kodiac never runs a bad race even if she is a long way behind the godolphin horse on ratings. 25/1 or better
 
I had a pop at the big race at Hamilton this evening hoping to come up with something in the 5/1 - 10/1 bracket (which is what I'm usually looking for) but ended up digging up another longshot.

Ham 6.55 Framley Garth 25/1


From my preview:

I decided to take a look at this race because it’s fairly valuable for horses on this kind of mark. Most of these wouldn’t get a sniff at a decent Saturday pot. Caveats abound, not least that this is Hamilton and there’s every chance the race will have been decided in The Bay Horse last night. I hope the prize money on offer means otherwise. Eye Of The Storm has the most back class but jockey bookings put me off. Those most likely to prove better than the norm are Framley Garth, Sepal, Mukhayyam, Zabeel Star and Theglasgowwarrior. Joe Fanning takes over from the usual young girl on Framley Garth and I’m hoping he can bully some improvement out of the horse. Sepal’s reappearance will have teed her up nicely for this but I don’t imagine Gormley will have been the trainer’s first choice of jockey; that would have been his go-to-guy Joe Fanning (38%). Maybe I’m reading too much into that, though. For the saver, I like Theglasgowwarrior. I was prepared to back it in a much better race at York last week but he got a very negative ride, reminding me of Willie Carson who, on being questioned by the Hamilton stewards about a particularly unimpressive ride told them his instructions were to hold the horse up. When asked how long for, he replied, “Till Ayr next week!”
 
Sandown :2:25 Paul Cole's Rotherwick is of interest, having improved since being gelded, after disappointing seasons in 2015 & 2016. He pops up every now and then, so tomorrow could be one of his good days. I've definately seen worse 20/1 rank outsiders.
 
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