The Long Shot Thread

Another qualifier today

Gwd 2.25 Arch Villain 40/1 - fourth in the Ebor first time up last season off 7lbs higher and might need a penalty to get in this time. Has taken time to hit form this season and will need to do so soon if connections have any York aspirations for him.
 
Final longshot for the Stewards' Cup:

It's been mentioned already on the thread by wilsonl - Solar Flair 20/1 - the main saver now that he’s hit form again. The handicapper appears to have split his AW and Turf ratings and he went up to 102 on the all-weather for winning at Newcastle the time before last. The handicapper has ignored it for Turf purposes. This time last season he was rated 104 on both. Cox has never ridden for the trainer before but he’s clearly rated by no less an outfit than Godolphin for whom he is 5/13 (38%) this season.

(Fwiw, my main bet in the race is Growl at 14/1.)
 
Be interesting to see how laying these NOV favs today..first one 1.61 just got stuffed..winner 27.4 with about 9 races for Nov/maidens to go...Biggest certainty is a few more long shots will be winning

g/l all
 
Desert Orchid said:
Another qualifier today

Gwd 2.25 Arch Villain 40/1 - fourth in the Ebor first time up last season off 7lbs higher and might need a penalty to get in this time. Has taken time to hit form this season and will need to do so soon if connections have any York aspirations for him.
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Missed third place by a nose but fortunately I got it four places. The downside is that the 25p R4, which Chapman had plenty to say about, will kick in. My main bet in the race was Walton Street so I deserved this wee bit of luck. If Walton Street had run as well as I'd backed him to AV wouldn't have got fourth place :)
 
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Outsider said:
I like reading other views especially when its a horse i havent looked at.ive had a look at this solar flair aand although hes probably is better on the a/w i have to say it looks to have an excellent chancein fact ive just took 25/1.
Of course im only expecting him to be 2nd as ive done GIFTED MASTER a/p at 33/1
Good luck.
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Well done!
 
Well done Outsider. That horse Gifted Master has now amassed over 500k in earnings. Definately a case of 'good horses win good races'!
 
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I knew I'd seen it mentioned somewhere. Well done Outsider!

Pleased to see Solar Flair nab fourth as it also got me the place double with Arch Villain.
 
Outsider said:
I like reading other views especially when its a horse i havent looked at.ive had a look at this solar flair aand although hes probably is better on the a/w i have to say it looks to have an excellent chancein fact ive just took 25/1.
Of course im only expecting him to be 2nd as ive done GIFTED MASTER a/p at 33/1
Good luck.
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What a shout that was...
 
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Marble said:
You reinvesting some on Vale Of Kent mate?
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I have backed it,but i think Rum Runner could make them all go but has drifted to 33s but his run 2 races ago won by his stablemate who has been sold to run in china? Escobar 2nd (unlucky yesterday)via serendipity 3rd masham star 4th and he was clear 2nd a furlong out.
 
Outsider said:
I like reading other views especially when its a horse i havent looked at.ive had a look at this solar flair aand although hes probably is better on the a/w i have to say it looks to have an excellent chancein fact ive just took 25/1.
Of course im only expecting him to be 2nd as ive done GIFTED MASTER a/p at 33/1
Good luck.
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Well done with solar flair wilson, i wouldnt have looked at it if it hadnt been for your write up.
Good race for me with 1st,3rd and 4th.
 
Unusually for me, an ordinary midweek pop:

Windsor 6.30 Dougan 33/1 - This one wasn't far off my radar the day Spring Loaded beat Poyle Vinnie. I got a tracker alert for another in this race but don't fancy it. Instead this one caught my eye. He's two pounds lower here than at Ascot so has better prospects than the 33s available with the two firms currently offering the price. Unfortunately both are restricting me to coffee money but the horse should probably be shorter than 10/1 if it can show its best form.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Unusually for me, an ordinary midweek pop:

Windsor 6.30 Dougan 33/1 - This one wasn't far off my radar the day Spring Loaded beat Poyle Vinnie. I got a tracker alert for another in this race but don't fancy it. Instead this one caught my eye. He's two pounds lower here than at Ascot so has better prospects than the 33s available with the two firms currently offering the price. Unfortunately both are restricting me to coffee money but the horse should probably be shorter than 10/1 if it can show its best form.
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I hadnt looked at windsor and i cant believe THE DOUG(wolves would be better)for the headline makers.is 33/1.
Time for a bet methinks.
 
I managed to get the balance of my bet on at 28/1. I suppose if it goes and wins I'll never get another penny on with either Betfair or PP. Probably no big deal really, though, since I don't bet much with either.
 
Haven't been about much but thought I'd check in good to see the standards aren't slipping some excellent tipping fellas. Keep saying I hope to get my nose back in the form books at some point but other things just keep cropping up and I haven't been getting the time :(

Keep up the good work lads.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Unusually for me, an ordinary midweek pop:

Windsor 6.30 Dougan 33/1 - This one wasn't far off my radar the day Spring Loaded beat Poyle Vinnie. I got a tracker alert for another in this race but don't fancy it. Instead this one caught my eye. He's two pounds lower here than at Ascot so has better prospects than the 33s available with the two firms currently offering the price. Unfortunately both are restricting me to coffee money but the horse should probably be shorter than 10/1 if it can show its best form.
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Good run for our money DO.draw beat him.
 
Freedom statue 810R 33/1 just one that caught my eye once.ran quite well after a beak lasr time.not a forlorn hope.
 
This isn't my sort of thread to be honest, I do best in the mid-price range (4s-8s) certainly in conditions races.

I backed Trais Fluors in the Summer mile at Ascot a month or so ago and he rates much better than the bare result, given that he lost up to 5 lengths out the stalls. He was 4th in the Marois last year and runs again in the race tomorrow. Alpha is naturally a hot favourite but the Fabre horse is 40/1 generally and that's just too big.
 
Sneaking this one in before the price goes everywhere this evening:

Ripon 3.15 Marie Of Lyon 20/1 - was upsides Foxtrot Lady in the Stewards’ Cup when her saddle slipped and she was allowed to coast through the final furlong. I’m tentatively rating her as finishing alongside the Balding filly which would suggest she may be on a curve. Not my main bet in the race, though, and I have another for the race which should still qualify in the morning.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Sneaking this one in before the price goes everywhere this evening:

Ripon 3.15 Marie Of Lyon 20/1 - was upsides Foxtrot Lady in the Stewards’ Cup when her saddle slipped and she was allowed to coast through the final furlong. I’m tentatively rating her as finishing alongside the Balding filly which would suggest she may be on a curve. Not my main bet in the race, though, and I have another for the race which should still qualify in the morning.
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I agree.and it is my main one.ha ha that should ruin his chance.
 
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