The Long Shot Thread

With bet 365 paying 8 places and Gabrielle malune claiming 5lb i think BRAVERY has a chance at 40/1.only ran 4 times this season.hasnt won since the 2017 Lincoln and has dropped down the weights as a result.

Ive also gone in again on whats the story 40/1 8 places as when i backed it earlier along with Raising Sand 40/1 it was only 4 places or 5.

Good luck.
 
NWM 3.40 BET365 CAMBRIDGESHIRE HANDICAP (HERITAGE HANDICAP) (Class 2) (3yo+) Winner £99,600 35 runners 1m1f Good ITV4(STALLS Centre)
No.DrawFormHorseStatsDaysAgeWeightTrainerJockeyORTSMON
3-9-9
(123+)		NotesRPR
19 35 3-0708 Raising Sand 2169-1Jamie OsborneNicola Currie 398104128? t116
1 5 553782 Circus CoutureD 2169-10Jane Chapple-HyamJ F Egan107104124p v117
33 25 122202 Mordinp 1 bf 1548-12Simon CrisfordPat Cosgrave95111124? p120
30 3 -49023 Sabador 2148-13Ed WalkerJamie Spencer96100123p t119
7 6 012463 Afaakv 1 bf 1749-7Charles HillsDane O'Neill104105122p117
10 34 7-8302 Tricornh C 1949-4John GosdenJames Doyle10195122p AC118
12 17 -37012 Kenyat 1439-4A P O'BrienSeamie Heffernan106104122p117
22 2 451460 What's The Storyp 6049-1Keith DalgleishTom Queally98104122p117
3 11 12-284 Sharja Bridgebf 3749-9Roger VarianSilvestre De Sousa106108121p +?117
4 8 -91255 Mountain HunterD 1649-8Saeed bin SuroorHector Crouch10591121e p114
11 16 3-1133 Abe Lincolntp 18359-4Jeremy NosedaLuke Morris101-121p AL116
16 26 -64592 Via Viab C 4369-2James TateTom Marquand9998121? e v
(125? p sl)		118
25 18 554083 Mythical Madnessp D 979-0David O'MearaCameron Noble 597106121p?115
28 20 0-1757 RestorerC 2869-0Ian WilliamsRichard Kingscote9788121+
(125 e)		120
20 19 425312 Zwayyanb bf 2259-1Andrew BaldingJason Watson 398106120117
9 24 /633/1 Very Talented 959-5 4exSaeed bin SuroorRossa Ryan 3102-119+118
15 28 2393-5 Mistirocv D 3379-2John QuinnSean Davis 59968119106
21 10 911115 Danceteria 1339-1David MenuisierFran Berry10388119p +?118
24 33 521341 Via Serendipityt C 4949-1Stuart WilliamsGerald Mosse9893119p115
31 30 019042 Masham Star 1448-12Mark JohnstonAndrew Breslin 595108119122 AC
(123 AC)		115
2 14 071461 Pivoineb 3549-9Andrew BaldingOisin Murphy106101118p115
5 23 4-1212 Alfarrisp bf 3549-7William HaggasJim Crowley104100118+p115
13 22 -32032 Kynrenbf 3749-3David BarronWilliam Buick100109118p +?117
23 7 011430 Ventura Knight 5839-1Mark JohnstonBen Curtis103101118p e t114
26 31 373410 Third Time LuckyCD 5769-0Richard FaheyJack Garritty97103118122 AW
(125? e)		117
8 21 2-1181 WissahickonD 4639-5John GosdenFrankie Dettori107102117+p AC114
14 13 5440-2 UAE Princep 1 14659-2Roger VarianAndrea Atzeni99100117116
17 4 114141 Waarif 759-2 4exDavid O'MearaConor McGovern 399107117p +?116
18 1 214563 Euro NightmareD 3549-1Keith DalgleishMartin Harley9887117113
27 9 967310 Kings Gift 3549-0Michael DodsShane Kelly97106117(126?)116
34 15 90-908 Sands ChorusD 1568-11James GivenWayne Lordan9498117? d
(121)		117
35 12 5-9205 Bravery 1458-10David O'MearaGabriele Malune 593106117e
(122e)
[+]		115
6 27 -11816 Seniority 3549-7William HaggasDaniel Tudhope104108116p114
29 29 -81P66 Examinertp 1 C D 379-0Stuart WilliamsSebastian Woods 597110116116
32 32 -22161 Stylehunterb D 3538-12John GosdenRobert Havlin10082116+p116

<tbody>
</tbody>

I think this race illustrates pretty clearly the relative pointlessness of stats. While Jazeel won the Silver race yesterday, thereby maintaining the strong record of 3yos in the race, 4yos and 5yos, who have such a poor record in that race, have an excellent record in this one, between them winning seven of the last ten runnings, so I’m ruling nothing out on the basis of flimsy trends. My favourite ‘trend’ is the one that dictates that a race of this nature is ALWAYS won by a well-handicapped horse!

As with the really top races like the Hunt Cup and Magnet Cup, it almost invariably takes more winning than the figure at the top of the MON (my own) ratings column indicates. That’s the ‘norm’ for a Class 2, well-contested handicap. These are more competitive still. I’m looking for something that can hit at least 125 on the scale. That brings in the likes of Raising Sand, Circus Couture and several others so it’s a question of which hold the strongest credentials.

Raising Sand is a must bet as it’s a tracker hose from the Hunt Cup and hasn’t been off since. I’m not sure about his jockey but the trainer seems to trust her (4/24, 17% this season) so I’ll follow his faith. Circus Couture may well be flattered by his good second in the Superior at Haydock to Here Comes When as that was in heavy ground. Still, he’s been put up 2lbs for it so is officially well-in here. Jane Chapple-Hyam has an excellent record in races of this nature.

The other fanciable ones include Mordin (Crisford is no mug, as he showed with Ostilio in the Britannia), Sabador (as an improver but all his best ratings are at 7f, dropping off as he goes up in trip), Afaak (visored for the first time), both of Gosden’s for obvious reasons, likewise the two Godolphins, both of Varian’s (UAE Prince carries the first colours yet Sharja Bridge is rated higher and Jason Weaver gave the strong impression he had info about the former) and so many others.

If my reading of the Hunt Cup is correct, Raising Sand has to get the nomination as the main bet at nice odds. I’ll have smaller win bets on Circus Couture, Via Via, Restorer, King’s Gift and Sands Chorus as potential 125 horses on the scale on their best form. They should all be really big prices but last year’s first three were 50s, 100s and 50s. To put things into perspective, Sands Chorus, runner-up last year at 100/1 (off 92, actually won the far-side race) is only 2lbs higher here yet is a similar price. I can’t say I fancy him even to be placed, to be honest, but if he’s part of a smallish group and gets to dominate it and they find a golden highway and the rest of the jockeys have backed it, it could win!

The chances are one of the +p horses will win but the bookies seem alive to them all so there’s no real value in covering all of them and I'll end up feeling a bit sick if I pick one or two and one of the others goes and wins. Like Jazeel... (where's the boak emoticon?)

[Edit - having spent another half-hour re-reading my notes this morning, I've decided to have a win saver on UAE Prince. It doesn't qualify for the thread, I'm just mentioning it in the interests of transparency. And they don't come much more transparent than me :)]
 
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Typical of my luck these days.

Raising Sand 'wins' his side but is only 8th.

Decent enough run from Via Via too at a nice price.
 
6pm bath UPENDED 66/1 skybet

Had 3 runs for this trainer over 10 or 12 furlongs.has dropped 10lb and a 5lb claimer on.drops down to a mile and is fitted with blinkers..
I put this in my alerts when it was trained by chris wall so at the price i can risk a £1 ew at that price.
 
Outsider said:
6pm bath UPENDED 66/1 skybet

Had 3 runs for this trainer over 10 or 12 furlongs.has dropped 10lb and a 5lb claimer on.drops down to a mile and is fitted with blinkers..
I put this in my alerts when it was trained by chris wall so at the price i can risk a £1 ew at that price.
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NR
 
Clonmel 4.45 Railway Muice 33/1 - worth a small e/way at the odds. Has been shaping as if a step up to 3m will suit. One paced but looks a stayer. His sister benefited from stepping up to 3m and he is joint top rated on RPR's. Jockey wont be able to use all his claim but he should still be at least 3lb well in. However he did fall l/t/o so unsure if that has affected him?
 
Hexham 2.50 Shine Away 22/1 small e/way - ran well lat year at this meeting over fences. Looks to on a good mark but form would suggest she likes cut in the ground. Going is currently good but rain is forecast all morning.If enough comes then this horse could benefit?
 
As I mentioned elsewhere, I decided not to study this weekend, partly through disillusionment and partly because I'm getting ready to bugger off to Spain for a week early tomorrow.

One I know I rate highly (from previous big races) and may even have put up on this thread that qualifies tomorrow is:

Cardsharp 3.35 Ascot 33/1

There's a chance this has been the target all summer to explain his below-par form but the upside is his price. He might be longer in the morning but I need to leave the house about 3.30am and will be en route until lunchtime and don't know yet if the wifi at the hotel will be up to much.

The likes of Raising Sand would also be very much on my radar but the 8/1 on offer tomorrow is very tight compared with the 40s on offer last week in the Cambs. I can probably let him go at that price, especially with it only being a week since that run and he's coming back a fair bit in trip. He couldn't have had anything other than a hard race last week, trying to be competitive from a bad draw.

O'Meara has two good candidates in Escobar and Firmament but they're not big prices either and Tudhope appears to fancy his barra a wee bit more at Newmarket.

I'm content to settle for just the one bet on the day.
 
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Good luck with cardsharp DO and have a good holiday.
Im sticking with his stablemate VALE OF KENT 25/1 but yoy never know with johnson.you cant discard lake volta either.
 
No, you can't, and I'd be pretty sure LV would be on my radar too if I'd 'done' the race. Then again, so would a few others.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Cardsharp 3.35 Ascot 33/1

...

The likes of Raising Sand would also be very much on my radar but the 8/1 on offer tomorrow is very tight compared with the 40s on offer last week in the Cambs. I can probably let him go at that price, especially with it only being a week since that run and he's coming back a fair bit in trip. He couldn't have had anything other than a hard race last week, trying to be competitive from a bad draw.
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Such are the decisions by which one's punting thrives or withers.

Cardsharp wasn't off an inch, never asked to be competitive from his good position through the first half of the race.

I can take comfort that I picked out Raising Sand as a very well handicapped animal as far back as June.
 
This one today comes with no shortage of negatives.

a) I haven't studied the form (as I don't have it with me here in Spain).
b) It seems the poor beast doesn't have form either.
c) The jockey looks a complete negative.
d) The horse is 'wrong' at the weights.
e) I'm playing a complete hunch.

But at least the odds are big :cool:

Nwm 4.10 Blooriedotcom 66/1

I made a small killing when PCH won this a few years ago with Farquhar at something like 40/1 and have noted his runners in it since then. They at least look to be triers (as they fvcking should be in a race of this value) so being unable to separate the likes of Frankie's horse, the Khaled Abdullah thing and several others without access to my form, I might as well chuck a bit of fun money at PCH's donkey. If it ends up winning it'll at least pay for this wee jaunt.

Caveat puntor.
 
Desert Orchid said:
This one today comes with no shortage of negatives.

a) I haven't studied the form (as I don't have it with me here in Spain).
b) It seems the poor beast doesn't have form either.
c) The jockey looks a complete negative.
d) The horse is 'wrong' at the weights.
e) I'm playing a complete hunch.

But at least the odds are big :cool:

Nwm 4.10 Blooriedotcom 66/1

I made a small killing when PCH won this a few years ago with Farquhar at something like 40/1 and have noted his runners in it since then. They at least look to be triers (as they fvcking should be in a race of this value) so being unable to separate the likes of Frankie's horse, the Khaled Abdullah thing and several others without access to my form, I might as well chuck a bit of fun money at PCH's donkey. If it ends up winning it'll at least pay for this wee jaunt.

Caveat puntor.
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Fuxake. That was fckin awful.
 
Coeur de lion 50/1 cesarewitch 8places

2nd last year but a lot higher mark,but ought to be able to get in the first 8
 
As I've already said. being in Spain and flying home early tomorrow means very limited access to the racing and Unibet is the only firm I can get a bet on with out here.

I've backed three in the Ces, all at fair 'longshot' odds, but I imagine considerably longer with better terms will be on offer in the morning. I'll just have to bite the bullet and take what's on offer. I don't think I'll even see the race.

Still, they are:

Speedo Boy 25/1 - I've always felt he's had a big race in him and the trainer has been mopping up other decent staying handicaps while keeping this guy under wraps. Plus you should see me in my speedos :blink:

Theglasgowwarrior 25/1 - I've put this one up before. This is a Nanton-type of Goldie horse: one whoi can mix it at shorter but has the turn of foot to be a potent threat over a trip. Goldie won the Magnet Cup with a similar type and I wouldn't be surprised if this has been the plan since the summer.

Cliffs Of Dover 28/1 - given that I put this one up for the Schweppes and Champion Hurdle, I can hardly let it go in this race!
 
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Fifth and sixth off possibly exaggerated hold-up tactics and eased off after inept front-running tactics.

Didn't make any money but I reckon at least two of them ran better than their odds.
 
Miles to memphis 66/1

Ive had a small bet at 150/1 2 place market and 33/1 9 place market.
4th last year off 3lb higher.
Decent hcap hurdler.
 
Punchestown 4.45 Esthers Present 25/1 - available at 28/1 & 33/1 - worth risking a small e/way. Was 6th in this race last year but hasn't run since. Of those that finished the race all have improved their ratings.
1st - +16lb -- 2nd +40lb -- 3rd +10lb --4th hasn't run again -- 5th +18lb -- 6th is selection and hasn't run again -- 7th +3lb
Although the selection hasn't run for a year I'm hoping he has improved by a similar margin and this race has been his target? If so off a 3lb lower mark than last year he could be very well h'capped?
 
Could well be but will it be trying first time up? PU first time up last year before winning. Maybe prepping for something down the line but I got 35/1 boosted so followed you in. Good luck.
 
swedish chef said:
Punchestown 4.45 Esthers Present 25/1 - available at 28/1 & 33/1 - worth risking a small e/way. Was 6th in this race last year but hasn't run since. Of those that finished the race all have improved their ratings.
1st - +16lb -- 2nd +40lb -- 3rd +10lb --4th hasn't run again -- 5th +18lb -- 6th is selection and hasn't run again -- 7th +3lb
Although the selection hasn't run for a year I'm hoping he has improved by a similar margin and this race has been his target? If so off a 3lb lower mark than last year he could be very well h'capped?
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Jumped well.jumped big at times.never put into race.in my alerts.
 
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