The Long Shot Thread

Another tracker horse is a nice price today: Beat The Bank (Jersey) 25/1 in places.

I can't say I think it will win but it's being tracked due to a fast time at the Craven meeting. The stable has been picking up some nice handicaps this season so maybe this one is better than a handicapper. It's maybe worth an ew pop but I've also taken it at 11/2 place-only for four places.

In the Hunt Cup I reckon cases for half the field at 20/1 and better could be made as value prices if you want to cherrypick their form. I'll add one or two bold ones later.
 
I was about to reply that GMH wouldn't qualify as - in my mind at least - it was about 14/1. It's 28s in several places which really is far too big if it runs its race.

Then again, the same can be said of several others.

My main bet in the race is Blair House 25/1 and I've also backed Master The World 33/1 (and a couple of others that don't qualify for this thread).

There's a couple at bigger prices I'm still thinking about!

God I love this race!!!
 
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My Target (Hunt cup) 100/1 (more at Betfair), 20/1 place-only (Hills, maybe limited and maybe not for long :lol:).

Gets to run off 97 here but is rated 10lbs higher on the AW. All the evidence suggests he is better on that surface but he's generally on a curve in that sphere and if he can translate some of that improvement back on turf he might not be out of the equation. And how often do you get the chance to back Olivier Peslier at a three-figure price in a handicap?
 
Another for the Hunt Cup: Elleval 66/1

Off 100 here, was 107-ish a few seasons back and 112 at his peak in his youth. Looked on the way back at Meydan in the spring and the form with Folkswood and Hors De Combat looks strong. Last year's rising superstar apprentice Oisin Orr takes off another 5lbs. Very much under the radar.
 
5.00 Capezzano 40/1 - I'd have been happier with a better draw but he might not have been that price!
5.00 Via Serendipity 50/1 - set a very fast pace in the Greenham and is probably a good bit better than his finishing position. Probably not over that race next time.

5.30 Bin Battuta 20/1 - strike out his last run and he'd be 10/1 for this.
 
Can't say for sure he'd have beaten Atty Persse but he'd have been a clear second with luck in running. He must have made up 10 lengths in the final furlong after getting badly messed about during the race. Straight into the tracker.
 
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Been really unlucky with some of these this week but I'm still game...

3.05 Glencadam Glory - running on from the back in the Derby, possible improver, 25/1 (4pl with PP).

5.35 Rare Rhythm - off this mark was backed into 6/1 for this last year on his seasonal debut but everything went against him, now 22/1.
5.35 Red Galileo - They bought Red Galileo out of Dunlop’s yard at the start of last season but he never got to run until this season. I suspect they felt they were buying another Red Cadeaux with a view to going for the Melbourne Cup and they might need to get the horse up a bit to qualify. If he’s as good as Red Cadeaux he could be thrown in here. 50/1.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Been really unlucky with some of these this week but I'm still game...

3.05 Glencadam Glory - running on from the back in the Derby, possible improver, 25/1 (4pl with PP).

5.35 Rare Rhythm - off this mark was backed into 6/1 for this last year on his seasonal debut but everything went against him, now 22/1.
5.35 Red Galileo - They bought Red Galileo out of Dunlop’s yard at the start of last season but he never got to run until this season. I suspect they felt they were buying another Red Cadeaux with a view to going for the Melbourne Cup and they might need to get the horse up a bit to qualify. If he’s as good as Red Cadeaux he could be thrown in here. 50/1.
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glad I looked in today
well done and Tks DO
 
Well done DO!!

Ascot 2.30 Gold Town 25/1 could be overpriced? Bred to be a top class 2yo over 7f. The form of the races he has run in is working out very well and may have excuses for last two runs on all weather and soft in Ireland. Needs g/firm ground. May be a sprinter? Interesting trainer has stuck him in this race, hopefully fast ground will make the difference.
 
Thanks all, just remember what I said in the opening post:

Desert Orchid said:
The nature of the beast is that it's long, long odds-on that the horse will lose but very satisfying when it wins or even just outruns its price to justify the selection.
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Today's 'fancies':

2.30 Abandon Ship 66/1 - I tend not to bother with the 2yo races until it comes to analysing times but I’m always on the lookout for anything Paul Cole runs as he is extremely selective in what he sends here. He usually gets a prep into them but Abandon Ship comes straight here unraced so he must be unconcerned on that score. Surely he can’t really be a 66/1 shot in the trainer’s eyes?

3.05 Maverick Wave 33/1 - lots of back class and Godolphin absolutely flying. Flame's reports say he works with Jack Hobbs.

3.05 Majeed 25/1 - in August he was short-headed by Berkshire (who was rated 108) at level weights and had Second Step (109), Tashar (107) and Fire Fighting (113) behind in what seemed a very fast time. He then went to Woodbine for a Grade 1 (but they weren’t level weights and I suspect it was a handicap) and was beaten 2¼ lengths in fourth in his final run of the season. I suspect this has been the target since.

5.00 Birchwood 28/1 - looks like a Godolphin sleeper and is now blinkered for the first time, which might waken him up. He started last season on 114 and took in some top races as a juvenile, winning the Superlative Stakes at the July meeting. On his first run in a visor last season he won a decent Listed race at Chester from Sovereign Debt. I suspect he wouldn’t be here if he wasn’t giving encouraging signs at home.

5.00 Out Do - a bit like Birchwood, has come back down a lot in the handicap, being 10lbs lower than when winning a Listed race at York in 2015. He looked on the way back last time and I don’t think O’Meara would bring him here if he didn’t fancy his chances a bit.
 
4.20 Long On Value 20/1- been a revelation in his last 2 sprint runs including when just failed by a nose to get up in the group 1 Al Quoz Sprint at Meydan, with Limato a long way behind. This stiff 6f could see him coming late and fast?

Had a good look at Out Do (DO) but came the conclusion he wants 5f?

5.00 First Selection 50/1 - Last year he led the field for 6f in G1'S - 2,000 Guineas - Poule d'Essai des Poulains & Prix Jean Prat and ran well for 6 1/2 f in the St James Palace Stakes. If he retains that ability switched back to sprints he may well surprise?

5.35 First Mohican 40/1 - 3lb lower than last year when finished 7th btn 10 1/2L - Was drawn in the car park l/t/o in Chester Cup and met trouble at lingfield the race before. Is weighted to turn form around with Winning Story and could well plug on for a place or better?
 
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Yes, I thought more than once about First Selection since Simon Crisford was for long enough the brains behind the big Godolphin handicap plots but I can't back everything in the race :lol:

Still feart of it mind.
 
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