The Long Shot Thread

Haydock 4:30 Stoneyford Lane. Being well supported which might be significant. 12/1 in a place (Hills etc).
 
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Cheers man. I'm just starting to get my eye in this season.
Don't lay mine anytime soon!
 
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Marble said:
Haydock 4:30 Stoneyford Lane. Being well supported which might be significant. 12/1 in a place (Hills etc).
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Just noticed this.

Well done, Martin!

Did you get 20/1?

Certainly smashed the 17/2 sp to bits.

Just one qualifier for me today:

Farquhar (Hay 3.15) won a big one at Newmarket at 40/1 in late 2014 (off 89). The following season he was a good third in this race off 96 and an even better second off 98 a couple of runs later back at Newmarket. He couldn’t follow it up a couple of weeks later and was gelded. He’s presumably had problems as he was then off the track until this season and it would be no surprise if his shrewd trainer has targeted this race for him. On his best form he is seriously well handicapped and a very big price.
 
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Barney Roy is my idea of the winner of the Eclipse but I couldn't resist the temptation of 33/1 Lightning Spear. He's up there with the bulk of the field on overall ratings (joint-top on ORs and RPRs) and was tailed off on his only previous try at the trip but I'm prepared to take that as being too bad to be true. Of the nine runners, at least two won't really be there to win and one doesn't really have a serious chance yet they allow for the third place to be paid.

I can't say I fancy him to win but, place-wise, I reckon you're getting bigger odds about his stamina than should be the case.
 
4.25 Haydock - Dandyleekie- 20s with 365, Sportingbet and Victor's

Starting to look well treated, his last run at the course has worked out well and I expect him to go close today in this field.

Slight concern over the ground being too quick so I think 20s is fair rather than overpriced. He could be being minded for a handicap once the ground eases and finish up in one of the Ayr sprints.
 
Haydock 4.25 Dandyleekie 20/1 - won this race last year off a 4lb higher mark and has a 3lb claimer - won last year on soft but can handle the ground today and may surprise?
 
DanB88 said:
4.25 Haydock - Dandyleekie- 20s with 365, Sportingbet and Victor's

Starting to look well treated, his last run at the course has worked out well and I expect him to go close today in this field.

Slight concern over the ground being too quick so I think 20s is fair rather than overpriced. He could be being minded for a handicap once the ground eases and finish up in one of the Ayr sprints.
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Didn't see you put it u as well Dan - hopefully a good sign. Good luck!!
 
Good luck with it today lads. I want to give a good shout to Pactolus in the big sprint at Sandown. This is a horse I had my eye on during the winter on AW. I think he's good on his day. Should out run odds of 20/1 for sure. EW.
 
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I think the ground for ours SC. We've both picked him I think because he's a horse that is looking almost ready to strike.

I will say now that I do have a habit with these handicappers of going for them one run too early and I get the feeling this is one of those times, recently did it with Desert Ace, backed him at Musselburgh and left him the next time. I would keep an eye out for where Dandyleekie turns up next. It could be somewhere like Thirsk or Pontefract and assuming they drop him back into class 5 and find him so,even ground where he can get his toe in I'd rate him a strong bet.
 
Ayr 2.10 Konig Dax 20/1 - Up to Cheltenham this year this horse had the distinction of being the last horse to beat the great Douvan. McCain paid 160,000 euros for him but he has obviously had his problems with only 1 run in 2015 and 1 run in 2016. Has had 2 runs this year with his last run in a flat h'cap showing plenty of promise. Could be better than his current mark? It wouldn't surprise if he outran his odds.
 
swedish chef said:
Ayr 2.10 Konig Dax 20/1 - Up to Cheltenham this year this horse had the distinction of being the last horse to beat the great Douvan. McCain paid 160,000 euros for him but he has obviously had his problems with only 1 run in 2015 and 1 run in 2016. Has had 2 runs this year with his last run in a flat h'cap showing plenty of promise. Could be better than his current mark? It wouldn't surprise if he outran his odds.
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Just a hd off a place at 25/1 - goes in the tracker.
 
Ayr 2.45 Tommy G 20/1 - His last 4 runs have been in better graded races than the one today and his last run looked promising finishing well over a furlong shorter. Races today off 1lb lower and a 7lb claimer on board, is bred to appreciate the distance and going and could well outrun his price. Trainer does well at these Ayr summer meetings. Another interesting point I have noticed is the horse is owned by Hamdan Al Maktoum, nice to see he is sending a horse to Goldie.
 
swedish chef said:
Ayr 2.45 Tommy G 20/1 - His last 4 runs have been in better graded races than the one today and his last run looked promising finishing well over a furlong shorter. Races today off 1lb lower and a 7lb claimer on board, is bred to appreciate the distance and going and could well outrun his price. Trainer does well at these Ayr summer meetings. Another interesting point I have noticed is the horse is owned by Hamdan Al Maktoum, nice to see he is sending a horse to Goldie.
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Just seen Giggsy has this on his thread as well - feeling good about this now :whistle:
 
swedish chef said:
Another interesting point I have noticed is the horse is owned by Hamdan Al Maktoum, nice to see he is sending a horse to Goldie.
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Doesn't run in HAM's colours. You sure about that?

Also, I'd worry that the claimer is a sign of a non-trier.
 
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A couple of 'qualifiers' today (not necessarily my main bets in the respective races):

NWM 1.50 - Sofia's Rock - just over 11 lengths behind Atty Persse in the the KGV H’cap, he actually ran a good bit better than the bare form and was eased late on after meeting trouble in running about two out. He’s 10lbs better with Atty Persse, including Shoemark’s claim, and it could be that he wasn’t over his previous impressive win. He also disappointed in the Lingfield Derby Trial on the back of a wide-margin, strong-staying win. Has now drifted out to 20/1 to qualify for the thread.

NWM 3.00 - I backed one last night at 20/1 but it's shorter now so can't claim it as a qualifier. The one that does qualify is Brian The Snail 25/1 given his connections’ record in the big handicaps at the big meetings this season. (No other reason!)

I'll be happy for either to run better than its price.
 
I'll throw my hat in as well

2.25 Alba Power 33/1- on a line through Jellmood which ties in with Aqabah who ties in with Rajasinghe. Then Alba Power may be up to group 2 class with the progression he showed on his 2nd start.
 
Desert Orchid said:
NWM 1.50 - Sofia's Rock - just over 11 lengths behind Atty Persse in the the KGV H’cap, he actually ran a good bit better than the bare form and was eased late on after meeting trouble in running about two out. He’s 10lbs better with Atty Persse, including Shoemark’s claim, and it could be that he wasn’t over his previous impressive win. He also disappointed in the Lingfield Derby Trial on the back of a wide-margin, strong-staying win. Has now drifted out to 20/1 to qualify for the thread.
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Ran really well and for a brief moment or two I thought he might just hold them off. Still, backed it ew so a wee profit on the race.
 
I think Parfait will win the opener but there's one that strikes me as definitely over-priced in the race at better than 20/1.

Swift Approval 25/1 - is back on the same mark as when winning last year but has disappointed since leaving Kevin Ryan at the end of last season. I wouldn’t be surprised if the plan was to get his mark back down to this level ahead of specific targets here and at Goodwood. Almost qualifies in the market without Parfait at 16/1 (which is my bet).
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I think Parfait will win the opener but there's one that strikes me as definitely over-priced in the race at better than 20/1.

Swift Approval 25/1 - is back on the same mark as when winning last year but has disappointed since leaving Kevin Ryan at the end of last season. I wouldn’t be surprised if the plan was to get his mark back down to this level ahead of specific targets here and at Goodwood. Almost qualifies in the market without Parfait at 16/1 (which is my bet).
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Well done DO and with yesterdays as well - class calls.
 
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