The Long Shot Thread

Ayr 3.30 Kentuckyconnection 25/1 - Just over a year ago he finished 5th in the 2,000 guineas and took part in G2's and listed races last season. Ran well f/t/o this season but didn't handle 1m2f on soft ground l/t/o. Handicapper has dropped him to a mark of 92 and it wouldn't surprise if back to a mile on good ground he ran well.

Ayr 4.10 Fortitude 25/1 - This 1/4 million guineas filly could be anything especially if she follows in the footsteps of her mother and father.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
3.05 Maverick Wave 33/1 - lots of back class and Godolphin absolutely flying. Flame's reports say he works with Jack Hobbs.

3.05 Majeed 25/1 - in August he was short-headed by Berkshire (who was rated 108) at level weights and had Second Step (109), Tashar (107) and Fire Fighting (113) behind in what seemed a very fast time. He then went to Woodbine for a Grade 1 (but they weren’t level weights and I suspect it was a handicap) and was beaten 2¼ lengths in fourth in his final run of the season. I suspect this has been the target since.
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FFS! Spencer! What a fvcking clown!!! Majeed had that race in the bag from a long way out but the idiot chose to show off yet again.

Happy with fourth place for Maverick Wave since I was on each-way. Covered my three bets in the race. The other was Kidmenever.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Thanks all, just remember what I said in the opening post:



Today's 'fancies':



3.05 Maverick Wave 33/1 - lots of back class and Godolphin absolutely flying. Flame's reports say he works with Jack Hobbs.

3.05 Majeed 25/1 - in August he was short-headed by Berkshire (who was rated 108) at level weights and had Second Step (109), Tashar (107) and Fire Fighting (113) behind in what seemed a very fast time. He then went to Woodbine for a Grade 1 (but they weren’t level weights and I suspect it was a handicap) and was beaten 2¼ lengths in fourth in his final run of the season. I suspect this has been the target since.
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Unlucky for the win but two placers is quite brilliant! :adore::adore:
 
Desert Orchid said:
5.00 Out Do - a bit like Birchwood, has come back down a lot in the handicap, being 10lbs lower than when winning a Listed race at York in 2015. He looked on the way back last time and I don’t think O’Meara would bring him here if he didn’t fancy his chances a bit.
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Outstanding stuff!!!
 
Desert Orchid said:
Thanks all, just remember what I said in the opening post:





5.00 Out Do - a bit like Birchwood, has come back down a lot in the handicap, being 10lbs lower than when winning a Listed race at York in 2015. He looked on the way back last time and I don’t think O’Meara would bring him here if he didn’t fancy his chances a bit.
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You was right I was wrong - Didn't think he would see out the distance - WELL DONE!! I did back it :adore::adore:
 
Fantastic call. You've had some right touches this week DO. Well done

Shame I've paid f**k all attention


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Thanks, guys. It's always nice when a longshot comes in.

Those who know me better than just via the forum will know I've been on the longest losing run of my betting 'career' with just the occasional winner along the way to temper the despair. I'd pretty much decided to give up completely if I couldn't make Ascot pay.

Harry Angel - or should I say Caravaggio - beat me for a near 900/1 treble the other day. That would have recovered all losses and put me a long way in front over the period. Such is racing.

Mrs O has been nagging me for 36 years about my hobby but even she was upset [for me] when I told her I was thinking of giving up. I might have had to sit and watch TV with her...
 
Stick with it, DO, you know it makes sense.

Struggling to maintain interest myself, unable to go racing anymore and the TV coverage just doesn't do it for me, too many talking heads (spouting cliche after cliche) and not enough walking horses.
 
Colin Phillips said:
Struggling to maintain interest myself, unable to go racing anymore and the TV coverage just doesn't do it for me, too many talking heads (spouting cliche after cliche) and not enough walking horses.
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The new RP site hasn't helped. It was my go-to site for copying & pasting cards that I could then edit, print and annotate. I experimented for a while a couple of seasons back with Raceform Interactive but it didn't/couldn't do what I wanted as it doesn't have the capacity to think as laterally as I sometimes do.

At the moment I can access and do as before via the RP bloodstock site as the cards there are still in the old format so I'll keep going for as long as that keeps going.

But the fact is my ratings have been fine, I've just been picking the wrong horses on the day. Strangely, though, it's the festival meetings where I tend to come good which leads me to believe the ones I believe are the best in the race probably are but aren't there to win.
 
My punting this year is my best ever and I've done the least work and bet less than ever.... Strange how these things play out.
 
I'm having two bites at the 20:00 novice chase at Kilbeggan.

A few in here running under big penalties, have yet to give me the impression that they will necessarily be capable of defying them, and I'm drawn towards Aspen Colorado (33/1), as one who might be able to take advantage of the bit of weight he receives this evening.

He was rated mid-120s as a hurdler, which would theoretically leave him with a fair bit to find with the likes of Dicosimo (for example), but Aspen Colorado was lightly-raced over hurdles, and I wouldn't want to judge him too harshly on that measure. His maiden chase was two weeks ago, where he was given a very quiet ride (returning after 6 months off), and it's interesting that he is pitched in against many of the same horses, so quickly again. On breeding, he'd be wanting this kind of trip.

Landofhopeandglory was in that same maiden chase, finishing 4th and a 1/2 length behind Potters Point. The pair re-oppose on the same terms today (as does Aspen Colorado), with LOHAG again getting a stack of weight. He shouoldn't have too much trouble improving past Potters Point, and his chance is obvious. I've therefore done the LAHOG/AC straight forecast as a cover-bet (a shade over 59/1 with B365).
 
John Ferguson had a lot of success in maiden and novice hurdles with Godolphin refugees from the flat, but there tended to be a glass ceiling to their progress.

It's going to be interesting to see how Joseph gets on with these Ballydoyle rejects.

I think it's rare enough for horses bred purely for the flat to do well over fences in particular.
 
Agreed, Art.....but I don't think you'd need to be anything very fancy, to beat the ones carrying the penalties. in this particular race.
 
In fairness I would have opposed Landofhopeandglory as well as his stablemate, but he held on after a mistake at the last. Not bad going for a 4yo, perhaps the German side of the pedigree helps when it comes to chasing.
 
swedish chef said:
Ayr 3.30 Kentuckyconnection 25/1 - Just over a year ago he finished 5th in the 2,000 guineas and took part in G2's and listed races last season. Ran well f/t/o this season but didn't handle 1m2f on soft ground l/t/o. Handicapper has dropped him to a mark of 92 and it wouldn't surprise if back to a mile on good ground he ran well.
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Out again 3.40 Newcastle and still looks overpriced to me.
 
Sort of can't help myself with this one.

Minella Foru was my Nash and Irish Nash ante-post horse last season, but didn't run in the former, and jumped like a pig in the latter, before hitting the deck after about a mile.

He is dropped right back in trip to 2m this evening in the Grimes Hurdle at Tipp, and whilst he is perhaps a bit of a forlorn hope (outsider of McManus's four in the race), he does at least have G3 winning form over hurdles from early in his career, so there are some tenuous reasons to roll the dice today - based purely on it being a bit of an odd race to run him in.

33/1 with Hills big enough to tempt me in.
 
Getting ready for Galway Plate Grassy; are there prices up yet ???
He was too fresh at Fairyhouse and they need to get a race into him before then.
That said he should not be too far away being a graded hurdle winner.
 
Yep, Eddie - Slim said much the same thing. He is currently rated h137 and c145 (I think) so either of the big races could be the plan - in which case, they might not be trying too hard tonight, but I'm hopeful he can comfortably out-run the odds. We'll see.

PS. No Galway betting on Oddschecker as yet.

PPS. Well done to DO on his recent run. I've not been following the thread too closely (obvious given time of year), but nothing like a juicy one or two, to restore the punting equilibrium.
 
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