The Long Shot Thread

2.25 Ayr - Captain Moirette 20/1 - Like Cloth Cap in the National and Circus Couture in the Spring Cup, this is my main bet in the race. It's under the radar a bit despite its form figures but I very much like its profile and the trainer won this race last year with Midnight Shadow.

EW doubles and treble will also carry some cash.
 
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Ayr 1.25 - Dandridge 22/1 - not my main bet in the race but ludicrously well handicapped on his Grand Annual form of a couple of years back. Now with Charlie Longsdon I've detected a glint of the old ability recently but its price tells its own story. An easy win wouldn't surprise me in the least, though.
 
1.55 Ayr - Claud and Goldie 22/1 - again not my main bet in the race but not far behind the top on my figures and with a progressive profile. Should probably be around the 12/1 mark.

2.25 Ayr - Irish Roe 33/1 - I agree with swedish chef on this one being overpriced. Hasn't built on promising form of last season but is on on a very good mark on her best form. Price is a reflection of current form rather than best.

3.35 Ayr - Arthur's Gift 50/1 - on jockey bookings is the NTD second string but is totally unexposed as a progressive novice chaser upped in trip. Bellamy was unlucky to be nosed out last year on Ballyoptic so I hope he can run second to Cloth Cap at a nice price.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Nwb 3.15 - Circus Couture 25/1 - handicapped on his best form to win, goes well in soft, showed up well early for a while in the Lincoln, JCH knows how to land a big pot... all good reasons to fancy this one but none better than persuading Dettori to ride.
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I've taken a saver on Humbert 25/1. This was on my radar for the Lincoln and others on here put him up. He couldn't keep going that day but Tudhope takes over here and I anticipate a big run.

Edit - another outsider too big to ignore: Banditry 66/1 (200+ xch, 11/1 top 4 finish). Exchange price probably tells its own story, probably has another day in mind but Atzeni doesn't look like a negative booking.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Here's a curiosity...

This one [Azzuri] went out to 50/1 that day (when I tipped it at long odds) and didn't show. Going through my figures for his race tomorrow (Red Rum) I decided to give him another each-way pop, expecting to get 50/1 again. After all, in its three runs for Skelton, Azzuri has been 20/1, 14/1 and 50/1 and beaten an aggregate of 135 lengths in lesser races than this. So imagine my bewilderment upon seeing it at 9/1 best. :mad: :mad:
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Didn't run that day. Hacks up today. Stinks, even though I backed it (7/2).
 
I’ve backed three qualifiers in the Scottish National, Skipthecuddles 33/1, Acdc 33/1, and Sizing Codelco 66/1. All trading slightly shorter now.
 
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Understandable punts, Maruco. I didn't have time to tabulate any figures today but I could imagine all three would be on the radar. I'll probably join you on Sizing Codelco with the stable in such good form now.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Nwb 3.15 - Circus Couture 25/1 - handicapped on his best form to win, goes well in soft, showed up well early for a while in the Lincoln, JCH knows how to land a big pot... all good reasons to fancy this one but none better than persuading Dettori to ride.
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All in all a very strange race with two or three being eased right off from some way out but pathetic watching Dettori make himself look like a 10lbs claimer on CC.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Scottish National - Cloth Cap 20/1 (if you can still get it) - it looks to me like this one, which even the form book says is on a steep upward curve, has been kept off the track for a few months to preserve a very low mark for this, plus it's still a novice so potentially better again. The form book also complimented it on its jumping. I expect JJON Jr to ride.
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JJON Jr's claim might have made the difference :confused:

Not for the first time, I'm not impressed with McLernon. He appeared happy to let the front two take three or four lengths off him three out before staying on well again from the last. I did like that he gave up the inside to no-one but I expected him to be more fluent at his jumps. Maybe it was the newness of the experience of the big field and more battle-hardened rivals. Still, I'm not going to complain too much at a profit on the race.
 
Hexham 5.10 Big Sess 40/1 - worth a token e/way bet - Full brother to The Minch who finished 3rd in 2016 Aintree grade 2 festival bumper on his first run behind Bacardys and Battleford and in front of Ballyandy and Willoughby Court. If the selection has half that ability he should run well? Trainer has had 1 bumper horse this season being placed twice at 50/1 and 100/1 and last 5 seasons has has 1 win and 4 places from 8 horses and 11 runs in bumpers.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Nwb 3.15 - Circus Couture 25/1 - handicapped on his best form to win, goes well in soft, showed up well early for a while in the Lincoln, JCH knows how to land a big pot... all good reasons to fancy this one but none better than persuading Dettori to ride.
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I've gone in again with this one today at 40/1. On the face of it, this is a much tougher test than Saturday should have been - hence the much bigger odds - but JCH has only had two runners in this race in the last ten years and both have won so maybe there's something about the race that means more to her than the better prize money in a big handicap. And he wasn't in the least knocked about the other day. Not my main bet, though, just sickness insurance, really.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've gone in again with this one today at 40/1. On the face of it, this is a much tougher test than Saturday should have been - hence the much bigger odds - but JCH has only had two runners in this race in the last ten years and both have won so maybe there's something about the race that means more to her than the better prize money in a big handicap. And he wasn't in the least knocked about the other day. Not my main bet, though, just sickness insurance, really.
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Didn't run too badly trying to give superior horses a start and first run but probably just outclassed anyway. Won't have done his mark for the Hunt Cup too much harm.
 
Mus 3.00 - Harome 20/1 - I backed this earlier when 18/1 was the best I could get (got BOG anyway) but it's drifted out to qualify. Obviously the drift itself is a concern but in a race that might not be anywhere near as competitive as the numbers suggest I like this one's profile.
 
MINELLA ROCCO 28/1 Irish national.
I thought he was going ok at aintree and then made a mistake but I was surprised to see him pull up.maybe this race was in mind.
Good jockey booking.DW O'connor.
 
Jessie Harrington’ yard runs several horses today that have a decent chance, I’m particularly optimistic that Whisperinthebreeze, still available at 20/1, can go one better than his stablemate did at 100/1 in the ‘National and win the big race today. The stable seems pretty positive and the ground should be ideal.
Have had a fair e/w bet and an anchor for several multiples.
 
Tout Seul said:
Jessie Harrington’ yard runs several horses today that have a decent chance, I’m particularly optimistic that Whisperinthebreeze, still available at 20/1, can go one better than his stablemate did at 100/1 in the ‘National and win the big race today. The stable seems pretty positive and the ground should be ideal.
Have had a fair e/w bet and an anchor for several multiples.
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Definite short-list material, TS. My own main bet will probably be Measureofmydreams. Just out of curiosity, what others are you interested in for multiples?
 
Desert Orchid said:
My own main bet will probably be Measureofmydreams.
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Just placed my bets.

Measureofmydreams 20/1
Whisperinthebreeze 20/1

These are the ones that qualify for the thread. My other bet doesn't.

I backed Measureofmydreams at Cheltenham and was never happy with the ride he was getting. I thought because he was gambled that day that was the target but he wasn’t ridden like a gamble so I now have to conclude that race was to put him right for this and he’s four times the price here. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up a gamble again.

Whisperinthebreeze was on my radar for the NH Chase last month (but ultimately I preferred the chances of others) and fell when in front. He was spared a tough race and looks well handicapped here.
 
Sorry DO! I wrote a reply but lost signal and the message disappeared.
Short answer - Nowt special tho I spent a long time looking, Nothing in UK appealed.
I do think JH will have a good day with Walk to Freedom probably best of the rest. Sizing Pottsie in the last could go well at a price.
Have backed Robbie Power on Fred the Foot(14/1) plus 2 shorties- Gardens of Babylon and Snow Falcon.
I wouldn’t want the additional horses to be considered as recommendations, more as attempts to leverage off one I really fancy.
 
Ballydine is too big at 33/1 for the 365 Gold Cup on Saturday but that was freeley available this morning and since then I've seen that Kealey has tipped him (second choice behind Step Back) so now 20s across the board, apart from 888 who are stilll 33/1
 
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