The Long Shot Thread

Epsom 3.55 Banditry 66/1 - I had no idea the City & Sub meeting was on until literally moments ago when I came across the card in the Weekender so I'm suggesting this without checking the form, hence it comes with a wealth warning. However, I did put it up recently (Newbury Spring Mile?) as I had it clear top on its best old form. It was weak that day and again today but this trip and track are likely to suit a lot better and maybe Newbury was his prep - he certainly wasn't given a hard race that day. Anyway, the chances are that if I had looked at the form I'd still end up suggesting it so there you are...
 
wilsonl said:
Ballydine is too big at 33/1 for the 365 Gold Cup on Saturday but that was freeley available this morning and since then I've seen that Kealey has tipped him (second choice behind Step Back) so now 20s across the board, apart from 888 who are stilll 33/1
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Unfortunately could only get on at 20s. Paddy Power paying 6 places


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Sandown 1.50 - What's Occurring 33/1 - this isn't my main bet in the race (that's Benny's Bridge, for reasons given on other threads earlier in the year) but it is top on my ratings. He won twice on fast ground in the autumn and wasn't beaten far by Global Citizen on possibly inconvenient softer ground in the Gerry Fielden and has since come down a few pounds. I'm hoping the faster ground today will suit him better than many others at shorter prices.
 
It looks like my only other longshot today will be River Frost 20/1, Sandown 5.15. He reverts to hurdling after a disappointing couple of goes at chasing and can win if it brings about a return to his best form. I have him top rated on his hurdling form.

And what the hey... it's the last jumps punt for six months so I might as well go for the double with What's Occurring... 713/1 will pay for the cruise Mrs O and I have been discussing. :lol:
 
Sandown 2.25 - Josses Hill 25/1 - Shame there are only two places up for grabs here but I didn't notice this price earlier (mainly because I was looking for a decent price about Charbel) but my ratings say JH shouldn't be any bigger than Go Conquer, Gold Present or Cobra De Mai yet he's at least three times all of them. NDB also appears to have opted for him over Gold Present but I might be misreading that. Maybe they want McGrath to have a good chance of a winning ride (GP) before the end of the season as a reward for his loyalty to the stable. (I'm sentimental myself about stuff like that.) Also on my figures, JH is within a pound or two of the others in race bar Charbel so should really be in single figures. It's more of a value poke than a winning chance.
 
Although hes an eleven year old and only won a veterans chase I think 50/1 Rathlin Rose is a bit of value.i actually backed it in running in the Scottish national as I thought he was going well.made a bad mistake 6 out and weakened.
 
swedish chef said:
Sligo 1.50 My Midnight 50/1
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Form of last race working out well where she fell at the last when running on and imo would have challenged for 4th. The 4th that day was Dollys Destination who finished just behind Little Light and Dualla time l/t/o giving them weight. Little Light is fav for todays race and Dualla Time is 4th fav. With usual progression and no accidents my selection should be competitive against those two on what will be only her second start. The extra 2 furlongs should be in her favour as well on breeding.
 
Outsider said:
Very good run.i only got 12s bog well done chef.i dont think it tried too hard.one for a hcap.
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I don't think it was a case of not trying just more of getting the mare round safely to build up her confidence. Just watched the race and jockey was very careful at the hurdles. It is rare to try and get a mare h'capped as winning a novice or getting a place in a listed or graded race is more valuable for breeding purposes. I think she is one to follow.
 
Not often I'd venture onto this thread but, on a quiet day, this one caught my eye.
Toy Theatre 3.35N.
Has won a couple on similar ground to today's, but was noted skipping away from a decent field in a valuable Newcastle h'cap 3 races ago. Ran ccreditably dropped back in trip and then took on mission impossible on AW final's day.
Had a small amount ew @ 33/1 with B365.
 
Punchestown 7.15 Fiveallin 25/1 - Has run twice over hurdles and l/t/o bumped into a Mullins hotpot in a race where they didn't hang about. If he can run to that form in a bumper against his own age group? I think he could have a good chance. As he looks the stable second string I have had an e/way stake saver on his stablemate Jungle Junction at 21.0.
 
Uttox 2.10 Bigchextocash 40/1 - would have a chance on his Moira PTP form if the plan was to get him h'capped then move way up in trip? Not positive in the market so small speculative e/way.
 
Newmarket 1.50 Fire Fighting 33/1 - Fire Fighting will no doubt start winning at some point and the last twice his mark dropped to today's 94 he won, both times ridden by Kirby. He has to carry a bet of some sort today at 33s or so.
 
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