The Long Shot Thread

Desert Orchid said:
Newmarket 1.50 Fire Fighting 33/1 - Fire Fighting will no doubt start winning at some point and the last twice his mark dropped to today's 94 he won, both times ridden by Kirby. He has to carry a bet of some sort today at 33s or so.
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I hope this isn't an indication of how my luck is going to go today. I wasn't happy with FF's position through the race (I wanted him to be a length or two closer to the pack) but at least it was trying and just missed out on third place. My main bet was on Corelli who was just touched off for the win. Typical of my luck these days.
 
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Wetherby 1.50 Stormin Norman 33/1 - minimum e/way e/way - I believe this horse has an e/way squeak as long as no soft in the ground, fit from NHF racing.
 
Cheshire Oaks - Starlight Red 50/1 - I don't do ratings for races of this nature so this is nothing more than a hunch. However, the Hills training operation traditionally liked to clock up winners at this meeting and often send their best staying filly to this race, sometimes with unconvincing track records behind them. Starlight Red's form suggests 50/1 is not generous but it doesn't look much of a race and I wonder what they said to SDS's agent to get him to take the ride. I largely keep my powder dry at Chester, limiting myself usually to the Cup and other more valuable all-age handicaps but I'm happy to have a nibble at 50/1 about this filly.
 
John Constable has been mentioned on this thread more than once and I see he's set to turn up on Saturday in the Swinton, which he's won before. On all recent form he should be 50/1 again but the bookies are clearly wary of him at a best price of just 12/1 (and blue since, I presume, Paul Kealy has tipped it).

When Ripp Orf ran well in the Lincoln I immediately locked it in my mind for the Victoria Cup. I think it was Reet Hard that put it up for the Spring Cup at Newbury and that got me worried because Reet is a good judge but I held off for this weekend. Kealy is front-page headlining it, also at 12/1, and it's also being backed (probably for that reason too, best now 10s).

Neither qualifies on its own for the thread but the double certainly does at 142/1. If both are fit, fancied and in the mood to show their best form, that's super value.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Cheshire Oaks - Starlight Red 50/1 - I don't do ratings for races of this nature so this is nothing more than a hunch. However, the Hills training operation traditionally liked to clock up winners at this meeting and often send their best staying filly to this race, sometimes with unconvincing track records behind them. Starlight Red's form suggests 50/1 is not generous but it doesn't look much of a race and I wonder what they said to SDS's agent to get him to take the ride. I largely keep my powder dry at Chester, limiting myself usually to the Cup and other more valuable all-age handicaps but I'm happy to have a nibble at 50/1 about this filly.
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Clever stuff. It's now generally 66/1 and 110 on one of the exchanges :(
 
Desert Orchid said:
John Constable has been mentioned on this thread more than once and I see he's set to turn up on Saturday in the Swinton, which he's won before. On all recent form he should be 50/1 again but the bookies are clearly wary of him at a best price of just 12/1 (and blue since, I presume, Paul Kealy has tipped it).

When Ripp Orf ran well in the Lincoln I immediately locked it in my mind for the Victoria Cup. I think it was Reet Hard that put it up for the Spring Cup at Newbury and that got me worried because Reet is a good judge but I held off for this weekend. Kealy is front-page headlining it, also at 12/1, and it's also being backed (probably for that reason too, best now 10s).

Neither qualifies on its own for the thread but the double certainly does at 142/1. If both are fit, fancied and in the mood to show their best form, that's super value.
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I will have a dabble at that.john constable won the Swinton in 2017 by 14L off this mark under Davy Russell.must have a chance.
Ripp orf is better over this 7f and must have a decent chance of winning it again.wont be my main bet but must have a chance.
 
Huntingdon 3.55 Caro Des Flos 66/1 - Gotta a risk a small e/way at the odds. His form for Mullins last year makes his current mark very temping, despite showing nothing in 4 runs for current trainer.
 
swedish chef said:
Huntingdon 3.55 Caro Des Flos 66/1 - Gotta a risk a small e/way at the odds. His form for Mullins last year makes his current mark very temping, despite showing nothing in 4 runs for current trainer.
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Thanks; turned round what has been a disastrous day, betting wise, for me !
 
Tipperary 6.40 The Irregular 25/1 small e/way - overall has contested better chases than most of this field and may surprise if on a going day for local trainer.
 
Tipperary 7.40 Panthers Creek 25/1 small e/way - Cosily beat Clonguile Way off level weights l/t/o yet that horse is 3rd fav. Might be some value in the selection?
 
Ascot 4.00 - Straight Right 25/1 (22/1 6 pl Skybet) - I'll be posting my ratings and brief thoughts on the race thread but this is one of my three bets in the race (the others are Ripp Orf and Presidential). He's at the mercy of the draw (2) so if he ends up on the unfavoured side he's donald-ducked but I don't know how the draw is going to pan out. If they split into distinct groups and he ends up on the favoured side those six places could end up looking generous.
 
Hexham 2.05 Broadway Belle 22/1 - small e/way - 16lbs lower with jockey claim than when 3rd in this race last year. Top rated on RPR's. Hopefully horse is fit and ready?
 
Hexham 5.35 Lady Of Ardvar 28/1 small e/way - Trainer trained the selections half sister for same breeder/owner connections to finish 2nd in her first two bumpers. Trainer in good form.
 
Kimifive 400a 25/1

A horse I've followed but didnt put up last time when he won 20/1 because it was its first run over 7f but it won well and could have more to offer.
 
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