The Long Shot Thread

reet hard said:
Line Of Duty - Derby. 50/1 B365 Cracking 2yo culminating in a Breeder's Cup win.
Haven't a clue what happened in the Dante (went off 2nd fav to TDH) but trainer tries cheekpieces in an effort to sort him out.
Purely speculative punt, but a nice price.
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Yes, he's another I might have a pop at, based on the same thinking, reet.
 
Oaks - Tarnawa 33/1 (25/1, 4 pl) - plenty to do on the book but my figures say it's a substandard renewal. That's not to say a superstar won't emerge and with Coolmore there's no real way of knowing which one 'the lads' like the best. However, Weld is not in the habit of sending no-hopers for this race and this filly carries the colours of the Aga Khan who will be keen to have his colours to the fore here.
 
I've had another look at the Derby and really can't make a strong enough case to favour any one of the principals over the other. I noticed a Makhtoum animal chasing home Broome so maybe Madhmoun will be very dangerous, assuming he's much better, but I have reservations about his stamina. In the same race, I thought Sovereign wasn't given much of a hard time in third and is as likely to improve for the step up in trip as anything else. Sometimes these Coolmore rags seriously outrun their odds so I've taken a small interest in him. It's a sad day when the only bets I can find in the race are longshots (Humanitarian, Line Of Duty and Sovereign) just for the sake of an interest. So, to add to Humanitarian:

Sovereign 100/1
Line Of Duty 33/1 (following reet in)
 
Desert Orchid said:
Epsom Dash - Harome 25/1 - I think I might have put this up earlier in the thread this season but now that I've done the figures I couldn't see me not backing it so went in this evening. He might end up having problems with Hathiq and Duke Of Firenze but they might be better prices on Saturday morning, whereas Harome might be a bit shorter. On my figures he's well up to winning a normal renewal but with the other two there it might not be a normal one. Still, Hathiq might bounce and maybe DOF isn't quite as good as he once was.
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Harome is down to 16/1 tops so I'm happy enough with that bet. I did plan to spread some dough thinly across a few of the likelier candidates but they've gone pretty short (Hathiq, Duke Of Firenze) to make it worthwhile.

Instead, I've taken Just Glamorous 20/1, now 20lbs lower than at the start of last season and showed some of his old speed on his first run for his new trainer last month at downhill Goodwood.
 
Boom the groom 40/1 I know hes got a bad draw and doesnt win very often but he has run some decent races here and with his riders claim runs off its lowest mark ever.
With his claim he runs off 83 (7-11) 2 yrs ago he was 107 (9-7)he finished 8th behind just that lord,dark shot and The Duke but is 12lb better off with them today.
I've also took 14/1 10 places.

But what a tough race to call.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Epsom Dash - Harome 25/1 - I think I might have put this up earlier in the thread this season but now that I've done the figures I couldn't see me not backing it so went in this evening. He might end up having problems with Hathiq and Duke Of Firenze but they might be better prices on Saturday morning, whereas Harome might be a bit shorter. On my figures he's well up to winning a normal renewal but with the other two there it might not be a normal one. Still, Hathiq might bounce and maybe DOF isn't quite as good as he once was.
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I want to see that race again. I lost track of Harome early on due to the camera work and only in the replay noticed it came from virtually last a furlong out to finish strongly into sixth. Caspian Prince remains the focus of my attention for the big sprint at Musselburgh, which I think is next Saturday.

Edit - I've just noticed, there is no Saturday meeting at Musselburgh for a while so I wonder what's happened to the £100k sprint handicap there. It was the week after the Derby last year and was won by Caspian Prince. I don't see a meeting for around that date in the two previous years so maybe last year was a one-off.
 
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I need to watch it again and again.i think boom the groom finished in the first ten.
That musselburgh race should be a cracker DO.
My two alert horses ran on well today.
Eah by gum and Open wide.
 
Newmarket 2.45 - Great Hall 50/1, 5pl - Not my main bet in the race and if he continues in similar vein to his form of the last 12 months he wouldn't be any value at 1000/1. He's maybe in terminal decline but he showed a glimmer of his ability over hurdles three runs back in December and I'm curious that he's running here in this valuable race off a six-month break with no apparent chance when he could pick up a £10k prize or two in Class 3 or 4 handicaps. He'd been progressive in 2017, eventually going up to 105 for winning a CL2. He continued around that level early last season on the all-weather but bombed at the Lincoln meeting. He bounced back, though, with a CL2 win at Ripon for which he went back up to 105. His form since then has been so poor he's dropped right down to today's 86. If the likes of Duke Of Firenze can drop to that kind of mark before showing a resurgence then I'm prepared to give Great Hall a chance here to small stakes but I do think Spirit Ridge will take a bit of beating.
 
I like two in the last at Hamilton tonight.

Comanche grey and corton lass got them at 40/1 and 30/1 4 places earlier but I see both have been nibbled at.
 
Loads of minefields tomorrow so I’ll throw up a few in the hope that some **** sticks.

2.15 dunhallowcountry 33/1
2.25 Golden Apollo 20/1
3.15 Pattie 33/1
3.35 Fuente 33/1

Ew yankee for good measure :lol:
 
Cala tarifa 305 chantilly 33/1 is a big price.beaten 3.25L by the fav last time but was boxed in at a crucial time and had to come round horses.i took 40s earlier with skybet 4 places.
 
Three for today:

3.05 - Well Of Wisdom 22/1
4.20 - Fox Champion 25/1
5.00 - Cosmelli 66/1

Well Of Wisdom - my only bet in the race but it's only really for the sake of interest. Appleby's 2yos have a strike rate around 50% so if this is the best he must be pretty good. He could maybe be simply the best of a moderate bunch that they're exploiting to the max ahead of moving them on but maybe not. I suspect his defeat last time was to keep him under the radar.

Fox Champion - not my main bet in the race and more of an outside-the-box selection. Hannon produced King Of Change to run second in the Guineas at 66/1 so why isn't he running here? Whether it's injured or whatever is not the kind of thing I follow but what if Fox Champion is now more highly thought of? If so, he shouldn't be this price. King Of Change would probably be around 5/1 for this.

Cosmelli - I was going to leave this one alone today and get stuck in at Newcastle but the price is just far too big for what I have top rated on Flat form. The consolation race for the Northumberland Plate is worth almost as much as this, would be a much lesser race and he’s proven over track and trip there having won it last year and run close to that level back there this season. A penalty wouldn’t guarantee his making the cut for the big one but it would certainly scupper his chances if he made it but not for the consolation race.
 
VALE OF KENT 40/1 7 places skybet.

This could just be a run to get him going or they might have planned this.it seems strange to wait this long for his first run.
Steps up to a mile needs to bring a bit of improvement.
 
I've backed new fewer than 6 20/1+ shots in the Hunt Cup as I think they are all worth it.

The two longest are:

Circus Couture 40/1 6pl - I know Outsider likes this one too. We've both had it on our radar for some time. I said before its recent win it might struggle to get into this off 97 but it went and won a small midweek race to pick up its penalty. I don't have it as a tracker horse so wasn't even aware it had won until afterwards. I have it top-rated and it's my main bet in the race.

Zhui Feng 66/1 5pl - Won this a couple of years ago off 100 (104 today) but improved subsequently before losing the plot a bit last season. Gelding and wind operations since last season might be positives and he warmed up nicely at Goodwood last month.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've backed new fewer than 6 20/1+ shots in the Hunt Cup as I think they are all worth it.

The two longest are:

Circus Couture 40/1 6pl - I know Outsider likes this one too. We've both had it on our radar for some time. I said before its recent win it might struggle to get into this off 97 but it went and won a small midweek race to pick up its penalty. I don't have it as a tracker horse so wasn't even aware it had won until afterwards. I have it top-rated and it's my main bet in the race.

Zhui Feng 66/1 5pl - Won this a couple of years ago off 100 (104 today) but improved subsequently before losing the plot a bit last season. Gelding and wind operations since last season might be positives and he warmed up nicely at Goodwood last month.
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The main problem with CC DO is ollie bell has tipped it lol
 
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