The Long Shot Thread

Outsider said:
If we had done it today we would have collected.
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Yes, but at considerably reduced odds. At the odds taken the place double was 13/1. At today's best odds it was more like 8.5/1. Better than losing, mind, but I honestly expected both to go off at around 6/1.
 
A couple I can see reasons for outrunning their odds and merit risking minimum e/ways.

Kempton 4.50 Cabernet D'Arlene 66/1

Killarney 6.10 Champagne Lady 33/1
 
swedish chef said:
A couple I can see reasons for outrunning their odds and merit risking minimum e/ways.

Kempton 4.50 Cabernet D'Arlene 66/1

Killarney 6.10 Champagne Lady 33/1
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I would have liked to add Roscommon 7.30 Roachdale Lad - but missed the 20/1 and had to settle for 16/1 - may qualify if it drifts?
 
HAMBLETON H'CAP YORK THURSDAY.

DONNCHA 33/1 frustrating horse and I'm sure most have backed at some point.back down to 85 which is its last winning mark 3 yrs ago.
It's not my main bet but 33s is a nice price and I have to have a bit on.
 
Golden Apollo is a big price at 33/1 running off 95 in the 2:25 York tomorrow.

He always seems to run well here and was unlucky not to finish closer in this last year (wouldn't have got near the runaway winner), being hemmed in as the pace started to quicken before being ridden into a never nearer 8th under hands and heels once the race was all but over. That was his first run of the season (invariably needs it) and he showed he's capable of better when twice running well over 7f at this course on his next two starts before just going down to Flying Pursuit at the end of July and is 5lb better off with his stablemate tomorrow yet is a bigger price.

He was 10/1 off a 3lb higher mark in this last year and with a run under his belt this time around and a better draw he has to have every chance of running into a place at least.

According to Easterby in today's RP stable tour he's "trained on well" from 4 to 5.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Does he mention Staxton? The stable jockey rides it.
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"He did really well taking on the older horses last year. He ran a blinder first time out this season and has improved for being gelded. He'll go for the big 6f handicaps and has handled any ground bar heavy - although that may have been because he was still weak."
 
York 1.50 - My Reward 100/1 5pl (Bf/PP) - My Reward is maybe better known as a stayer but three of his top four RPRs were gained at around this trip - the highest at 12f less than a year ago - so maybe a proper pace will give him a much better chance than his longs odds would suggest. He refused to go into the stalls last time but I don't think that's normal for him. I think he's worth a pop. He's top-rated with me and RPRs.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
York 1.50 - My Reward 100/1 5pl (Bf/PP) - My Reward is maybe better known as a stayer but three of his top four RPRs were gained at around this trip - the highest at 12f less than a year ago - so maybe a proper pace will give him a much better chance than his longs odds would suggest. He refused to go into the stalls last time but I don't think that's normal for him. I think he's worth a pop. He's top-rated with me and RPRs.
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I've backed this as well but have to say I'm not very confident.his form figures are uninspiring.
13/14,20/20,11/13,5/5 12/13 in fact hes only beat 20 horses in 10 races which includes a win and two 3rds.
 
I hear you, Outsider, but am a wee bit surprised by the remarks. Like me, the long shots you put up are long shots because their form figures are uninspiring.

A lot of the time they're getting beat because they're not very well handicapped after a good run and it takes several well-beaten outings to get them back down but a mark of 97 is the lowest MR has been on since he won at Chester off 96 in September 2017. This is the first time he's been below 100 since then and he won off 100 last June. He's at an age where he might be in decline so it's obviously a gamble but it's one I'm more than happy to take. To be honest, I'd have backed him at 20s if that was the best price on offer.
 
I didnt mean to offend you.i just feel it needs to improve a bit before it wins or it could be interesting to hear what is said to the stewards.
But as you say,i that's why its 100/1 btw I only got 50s.
Good luck.
 
Newton Abbot
4.25 Hymn And A Prayer 22/1 2pts e/way - Ignoring last run as that was for a h'cap mark there are form line that suggest the selection is on a good mark.

5.30 Im Notapartygirl 66/1 1pt e/way - On breeding the selection does not look a natural for a 2m NHF race, however, my interest was peaked by trainers record of 2 wins and 3 places from 11 runs in bumpers. I decided to look at all his runners in training for the last 5 years that ran in bumpers at this track. This covered a period of 10 years where his record is:

Pokari - 2nd 66/1 & 1st 6/4
Stand By Me - 3rd 25/1 & 1st 14/1
Humbel Ben - 2nd 10/1
Rest And Be - 1st 11/2 & 2nd 11/4
Complice Du Chanele - Pulled up fatally injured.

Because of these statistics I can't let the selection go unbacked at those odds.
 
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York 2.25 - Savalas 25/1 - Like My Reward and so many others, this one is priced up on its overall profile but I have it top rated and so do RPRs so somewhere back down the line he has shown he can win if they can get him back to form. Early last season I thought Savalas might emulate Brando for the same connections and progress to G2 level but it didn't happen after early promise but maybe it was one of those moderate second-season situations and he might bounce back this year. More in hope than confidence, obviously, but there you go...
 
I was pleasantly surprised to see My Reward bounce out and get to the front smartly from his wide draw but I wonder if it helped him. I thought he could have gone faster up front and ultimately he was done for pace from two out. I'm not unhappy with his run. He was 100/1, after all, and I thought he ran a good bit better than a 100/1 shot. I'm adding him to my tracker. It could be that the Ebor is the long term target but he can't afford to go much more down the handicap or he'd be in danger of not making the cut.

As it turned out, two of the big improvers that were mentioned on the other thread fought out the finish. I couldn't have picked one over the other and didn't want to back both but I don't mind seeing them fight it out.
 
Desert Orchid said:
York 2.25 - Savalas 25/1 - Like My Reward and so many others, this one is priced up on its overall profile but I have it top rated and so do RPRs so somewhere back down the line he has shown he can win if they can get him back to form. Early last season I thought Savalas might emulate Brando for the same connections and progress to G2 level but it didn't happen after early promise but maybe it was one of those moderate second-season situations and he might bounce back this year. More in hope than confidence, obviously, but there you go...
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Good run for fourth.
 
Nothing doing today but one for Saturday:

Lockinge - Romanised 28/1 - I've only just run off the card for this and was pretty surprised to see that price on offer. I should stress that I haven't done my figures for the race but I couldn't see me not backing it at those odds even though doubts about the ground immediately spring to mind. Romanised is top-rated on ORs and RPRs so there's a fair chance he'll be at or near the top of my figures and I couldn't see me letting that kind of price go. I'll be surprised if it doesn't correct itself by the off. It should really be a single-figure price.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Nothing doing today but one for Saturday:

Lockinge - Romanised 28/1 - I've only just run off the card for this and was pretty surprised to see that price on offer. I should stress that I haven't done my figures for the race but I couldn't see me not backing it at those odds even though doubts about the ground immediately spring to mind. Romanised is top-rated on ORs and RPRs so there's a fair chance he'll be at or near the top of my figures and I couldn't see me letting that kind of price go. I'll be surprised if it doesn't correct itself by the off. It should really be a single-figure price.
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12/1 tops and blue across the board as I write. Could end up single-figures.

Top-rated with me, by the way, but I suspect I went too high with his irish Guineas form. Looking back, that race might have fallen apart and into his hands. Still, 28/1 was the wrong price. I'll be happy enough with the place return, should that be what happens.
 
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Just got a text telling me Rob Wright in the Times tips it, saying 16/1 is value. Must have been that price earlier today.
 
RP email at 18.31 yesterday had Romanised tipped up by Spotlight at 20/1. Another one this morning with it as Paul Kealy's tip, also 20/1.
 
I've just taken Mythical Magic 20/1 in the same race. I have it as an improver with not to much to find against poor G1 opposition.

Not hard to make each-way cases for lots of these. It's a glorified handicap.
 
Uttoxeter 7.50 Lady Markby 33/1 1pt e/way - 3rd in this race last year btn less than a length. 1lb lower today. Blind punt that wind op has the desired effect as recent form very poor.
 
Auteuil 4.00
Mr Adjudicator won a decent handicap at the Punchestown Festival and can outrun odds of 33/1 here with the assistance of James Reveley



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Desert Orchid said:
Lockinge - Romanised 28/1
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I don't think they were paying four places when I backed it. If anyone backed it today I hope you got the extra place even if the price wasn't great. Could have been third with a better ride, I thought, but plenty of these were just prepping for Ascot, possibly including Romanised.
 
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