The Long Shot Thread

I like the bet365 extra place market and there are some good value

CIRCUS COUTURE 20/1 9 places
ZHUI FENG 28/1 10 places
VALE OF KENT 22/1 10 places.
 
Ascot 5.35 - Charlemaine 80/1 - no study involved in this race and it's one I tend to leave alone. However, I always look out for Cole 2yos at this meeting as they tend to outrun their odds. That the only reasoning behind the selection.
 
I think it was forum member Edgt who I recall tipped the big priced 40/1 Dundalk winner, Fresnal a few months ago on this same thread?

I actually think she ran a solid race the last day at York and could prove a fantastic price at 20/1 now stepping up in trip, for a good each way bet in the Ribblesdale tomorrow.
 
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Hopes for Circus Couture peaked in the lead-up to the off when JCH said she felt the horse was better again this year and the rain was ideal for him. I couldn't see him in the race as I was looking for his old colours but he's clearly not run his race after all.

One of my 20/1+ shots was Stylehunter who might have been a wee bit unlucky, finishing strongly into fourth after losing several lengths out of the stalls.

Still, it was a great race. Always is. The form will be worth following.
 
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Outsider said:
VALE OF KENT 40/1 7 places skybet.

This could just be a run to get him going or they might have planned this.it seems strange to wait this long for his first run.
Steps up to a mile needs to bring a bit of improvement.
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Managed 7th so profit
 
I'll have a few in the last couple of handicaps and will start with:

5.35 Majestic Dawn 25/1 5pl - ran in the very hot Newbury handicap won by Headman but fell out of the gates and ended up at the back. He never lost any overall ground on Headman from the start of the straight to the line without being given as hard a race and is interesting at nice odds assuming he fully stays. (Not my main bet in the race.)
 
Desert Orchid said:
Ascot Gold Cup - Capri 20/1 (Betfair/PP) - I backed this one earlier in the month at 12/1 after it was beaten in its seasonal debut and I'm not too bothered that it was beaten again the other evening. If, as AOB has stated, the Gold Cup is the aim, he won't have been anywhere near ready just yet and to push him out strikes me as an over-reaction. I'm told AOB is quoted as saying the horse is taking longer to get fit this season. That doesn't bother me either. In fact it reassures me. Considering too that Southern France appears NOT to be trained for Ascot, it should enhance the idea that Capri is the Ballydoyle No 1 for the race.
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Bumping this from last month.

I'm not in the least bit concerned that it's still a big price (22s in a place) and have topped up at the 22/1. I really can't see past it but that's because I'm completely writing off this season's form. Shades of Yeats ahead of his final win.
 
5.00 Glorious Lover 50/1 6pl - undoubtedly named after my good self, this one is looking very weak in the betting, presumably due to the ground but a middle draw should be fine for him. Glorious Lover appeared to be weighing up the opposition last time against Jersey Stakes types and he might improve a fair bit for the step up in trip. I thought he'd be around the 12/1 mark.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'll have a few in the last couple of handicaps and will start with:

5.35 Majestic Dawn 25/1 5pl - ran in the very hot Newbury handicap won by Headman but fell out of the gates and ended up at the back. He never lost any overall ground on Headman from the start of the straight to the line without being given as hard a race and is interesting at nice odds assuming he fully stays. (Not my main bet in the race.)
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Blue across the board and 16/1 tops. I wasn't expecting him to be the subject of a gamble but it's hardly a discouraging sign.
 
Ascot 5.35 Babbo's Boy 22/1 - probably a shade too long at the price for me as I have him noted as a +p horse. Not the main bet either but worth having onside.
 
Desert Orchid said:
5.00 Glorious Lover 50/1 6pl - undoubtedly named after my good self, this one is looking very weak in the betting, presumably due to the ground but a middle draw should be fine for him. Glorious Lover appeared to be weighing up the opposition last time against Jersey Stakes types and he might improve a fair bit for the step up in trip. I thought he'd be around the 12/1 mark.
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Have you done it with GREAT SCOT and ANDAWEEDRAM
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'll have a few in the last couple of handicaps and will start with:

5.35 Majestic Dawn 25/1 5pl - ran in the very hot Newbury handicap won by Headman but fell out of the gates and ended up at the back. He never lost any overall ground on Headman from the start of the straight to the line without being given as hard a race and is interesting at nice odds assuming he fully stays. (Not my main bet in the race.)
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I admit to having a minor palpitation as they straightened up but in hindsight I'd have to suggest he did too much chasing the pace. I'm pretty sure he'll have done best of the pace-setters and I think the principals all came from behind. This is another race with will prove worth following.
 
TRICORN 355R 33/1 ex gosden horse who ran well in the brittania at ascot.now with Ruth Carr.i thought it didnt run too bad(didnt try?) two races ago and last time was too far.you never know with Ruth but she can usually get one to win,eventually.

PIVOINE 535RA 33/1 have to do this at the price.
 
I don't have too many longshots today but I'll kick off with these:

5.00 Spanish Aria 22/1 - I didn’t do the form for this because I usually give it a miss but I’m interested in taking an educated guess at what might be fancied. Dettori appears to be sitting this one out but he wouldn’t have made the weight for any of Gosden’s anyway. Even Havlin will put up 1lb over on Nonchalance. However, there has to be a chance he’d have been offered at least one of the top-weights. Gosden’s are going so well I’ve taken Spanish Aria each-way at 25/1 (last night) as jockey bookings suggest she might be the stable’s main hope. Mackay has an excellent strike rate for the stable considering he’s limited to runners for which Dettori and Havlin can’t do the weight.

5.35 Spark Plug 50/1 - went up to 112 for winning the 2016 Cambridgeshire and later proved he stayed this trip. I’m curious that his two runs this season ahead of this were at 2m on the all-weather in non-handicaps. Perhaps that was the trainer’s way of preserving a dropping mark and he's handicapped to win an average renewal. There is one in the race for which I have the proverbial rush of blood to the extremity but he doesn't qualify for the thread. I fancy another couple of longshots for a bit of value too and will post them once the money is on.
 
Ascot 2.30 - Celtic Beauty 25/1 5pl - I don't study juvenile form but this one is clear top rated on RPRs despite being placed no better than third in two outings. I presume she'll improve again (as will nearly all of them) but on the figures she's got a head start and can edge to the near side from a middle draw.

Ascot 5.35 - Kasperenko 33/1 - my figure for Kasperenko suggests he has the winning of a race of this nature so he’s a bet at a big price. It requires a leap of faith to an extent that he can translate his form from the all-weather but when he was coming through the ranks he was originally better on turf. He's weak in the betting and might be much bigger on the exchanges or Tote later in the day, in which case I might top up a little.

Ascot 5.35 - Top Tug 33/1 - usually finds one too good but is rated to go very close on his form in this last year. Despite being 4lbs lower now, he’s likely to find something improving past him again but if the improver doesn't materialise...
 
Desert Orchid said:
Ascot 2.30 - Celtic Beauty 25/1 5pl - I don't study juvenile form but this one is clear top rated on RPRs despite being placed no better than third in two outings. I presume she'll improve again (as will nearly all of them) but on the figures she's got a head start and can edge to the near side from a middle draw.
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Bastert... thought I had it for a moment or two. Just outstayed. Decent start to the day.
 
Watched Celtic Beauty's race again. The jockey may have made his move too soon. I'll look again but I think he took three or four lengths off the winner with his move three out and was paddling in the last 50 yards. I can't say the filly would have won but it would have been close.

We move on.

Ascot 5.00 - Gifted Master 25/1 7pl - I'll be backing at least three in this race but this is the main bet. I know Outsider is keen on this one too and I thik he has backed it ante-post at 40s or something like that. It was 33/1 yesterday but I held off hoping for the same or better in a place today. Fat chance. Anyroads... Gifted Master is chucked in on his Stewards’ Cup win off 111. The only worry is that he’s being trained for that again but a narrow win in a bunch finish might see him go up less than a 5lbs penalty. Also, Jason Watson was claiming 5lbs at Goodwood last season and it’s possible they can win this and put up a top 5lbs claimer at Goodwood to offset any rise in an attempt to do the double. He’s a CD winner, though, and first-time cheekpieces suggest they’re going for this.
 
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