The Long Shot Thread

Ascot Gold Cup - Capri 20/1 (Betfair/PP) - I backed this one earlier in the month at 12/1 after it was beaten in its seasonal debut and I'm not too bothered that it was beaten again the other evening. If, as AOB has stated, the Gold Cup is the aim, he won't have been anywhere near ready just yet and to push him out strikes me as an over-reaction. I'm told AOB is quoted as saying the horse is taking longer to get fit this season. That doesn't bother me either. In fact it reassures me. Considering too that Southern France appears NOT to be trained for Ascot, it should enhance the idea that Capri is the Ballydoyle No 1 for the race.

Whenever this kind of thing happens, it reminds me of The Minstrel. It was winter favourite for the Derby and after it was beaten in the Guineas was pushed out to 20/1. I can't remember the SP on the day but it wasn't 20s!
 
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Hunt 7:10 Lazarus. 20/1 rank outsider in the betting, but has won at Huntingdon before, is still young enough at five years of age to put in a better performance. I wouldn't expect anyone to back him on my advice, but I've put him up anyway.
 
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Tipperary 5.05 Fallen Forest 40/1 3pts e/way - On a line through Nibiru (Today's fav) and Andalusa the selection improved enough on his second run to theoretically give the fav a race today. Negatives - are sketchy jumping, any lurkers in the field and may be going for a h'cap mark?
 
Burauq is a horse I have a soft spot for as it was a memorable long shot winner for me many moons ago. He hasn’t won in 2 years and has been on a basement mark since last year but he has two course distance wins to his name. In addition, he may have hit the frame on his last return to Bath but was hampered badly and lost his chance in the final furlong. This tiny bit of form coupled with the services of a promising young pilot are enough to tempt me to have a wager at 66/1. Edit 16.15 Bath
 
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Haydock 2.10 - Rock Warbler 66/1 - this is totally out of the blue so be warned. I haven't studied the form or owt. I was looking at the race odds to check on another beastie (which I'll put up presently) and noticed that this one is blue across the board and as short as 22/1 in a place but generally 33s. I suspect the 66s won't last so I'm really just relaying a possible springer rather than anything I've dug up myself. I've stuck a very minimal amount on it just in case there is intel behind the move.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I was looking at the race odds to check on another beastie (which I'll put up presently)
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Haydock 2.10 - Bogardus 50/1 - This is the beastie I was looking at. Again, I have to stress this is not based on any form or info. I was actually checking up on Danny Tudhope's engagements as he wasn't on one tomorrow that I'd half-expected him to be riding when I noticed he had two rank outsiders today. "Rank" might end up being the mot juste for both of them (see below for the other) and I suppose I'm not really putting them forward as recommendations; rather I suppose I'm just saying that I've nibbled at them today and they happen to qualify for the thread so take them in the spirit in which they're offered. I just wondered why Tudhope would accept a 50/1 shot when he would probably have been approached for a few others in the race with ostensibly better chances.

Pontefract 7.00 - Low Profile 50/1 - This is the other rank outsider Tudhope rides and he's gone on to this track from Haydock. Is he just picking up as many riding fees as he can while he can? Possibly. The case for Low Profile is slightly better than for the other. He was a clear-cut winner last June off 67 when trained by Roger Charlton and is back down here to 68 so if Bastiman has got the horse back in some kind of form he probably shouldn't be that price.

I'm probably pishing in the wind with these two but at the prices I'm happy to risk a lottery stake on the each-way singles and ew double. You never know...
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Haydock 2.10 - Bogardus 50/1 - This is the beastie I was looking at. Again, I have to stress this is not based on any form or info. I was actually checking up on Danny Tudhope's engagements as he wasn't on one tomorrow that I'd half-expected him to be riding when I noticed he had two rank outsiders today. "Rank" might end up being the mot juste for both of them (see below for the other) and I suppose I'm not really putting them forward as recommendations; rather I suppose I'm just saying that I've nibbled at them today and they happen to qualify for the thread so take them in the spirit in which they're offered. I just wondered why Tudhope would accept a 50/1 shot when he would probably have been approached for a few others in the race with ostensibly better chances.

Pontefract 7.00 - Low Profile 50/1 - This is the other rank outsider Tudhope rides and he's gone on to this track from Haydock. Is he just picking up as many riding fees as he can while he can? Possibly. The case for Low Profile is slightly better than for the other. He was a clear-cut winner last June off 67 when trained by Roger Charlton and is back down here to 68 so if Bastiman has got the horse back in some kind of form he probably shouldn't be that price.

I'm probably pishing in the wind with these two but at the prices I'm happy to risk a lottery stake on the each-way singles and ew double. You never know...
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Cracking place with Low Profile D.O.
 
Very nice DO.

Harome 345y 28/1

Finished 10th behind copper night and a few others but is better off with them and won off this mark at York last year.i like the jockey as well.Holly Doyle.
 
Very nice DO.

Harome 345y 28/1

Finished 10th behind copper night and a few others but is better off with them and won off this mark at York last year.i like the jockey as well.Holly Doyle.sorry Nicole currie
 
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Chester 2.55 - Arcanada 25/1 (4pl Sky) - not my main bet in the race and definitely a lot better on the AW but he's now on a winnable mark on turf. If he breaks as sharply as he did last week at Newbury his draw won’t be a problem but he might just be there to make the pace for Sha La La La Lee. He’s a much better animal on the all-weather but his best turf form gives him the winning of this race and his claimer has a good strike rate for trainers who use him selectively. This is his first ride for Dascombe and he might get to make his own pace after going too fast last week.
 
Goodwood 2.30 - Sporting Chance 22/1 6pl (Hills, gen 25/1) - I’m drawn to the top-weight Sporting Chance at a nice price for the shrewd Simon Crisford. It’s possible something like the Britannia, which he won last year with the impressive Ostilio, might be the aim but this horse ran in the 2000 Guineas (150/1, well beaten) and still holds an engagement in the SJP. I’m happy to take a punt each-way despite its wide draw. As far as I can see it’s Crisford’s first runner in the race. This is my only bet in the race.
 
Haydock 2.50 - Spirit Warning 20/1 - Not my main bet in the race but I'm a fan of Andrew Balding and I can't see him running this in such a valuable race if it wasn't highly regarded. Will be easy to spot in the gloriously famous Mill Reef colours. I hope it's also got a noseband!
 
Haydock 4.00 - Caspian Prince ew 20/1 w/o Battaash - The outright price is 40/1, which is an insult to a horse of his ability. The chances are the £100k handicap at Musselburgh in a fortnight is the target as he won it off 106 last year before failing very narrowly to defy 114 in two further €100k handicaps at the Curragh, for which he went up to 118, and a drop of a few pounds would probably give him a winning mark at Edinburgh. But early last year he was only a half-length off Kachy at levels and he won a G2 at the Curragh the year before.
 
Desert Orchid said:
York 1.50 - My Reward 100/1 5pl (Bf/PP) - My Reward is maybe better known as a stayer but three of his top four RPRs were gained at around this trip - the highest at 12f less than a year ago - so maybe a proper pace will give him a much better chance than his longs odds would suggest. He refused to go into the stalls last time but I don't think that's normal for him. I think he's worth a pop. He's top-rated with me and RPRs.
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Not 100s today - not even a qualifier for the thread today - but will carry some sickness insurance.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Nwb 3.15 - Circus Couture 25/1 - handicapped on his best form to win, goes well in soft, showed up well early for a while in the Lincoln, JCH knows how to land a big pot... all good reasons to fancy this one but none better than persuading Dettori to ride.
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If you look at the result of the earl of Sexton stakes at newmarket then your circus couture looks to have a decent chance in the royal hunt cup.
3rd at 100/1 last year off 106 and after its last run has been dropped to 97 and I've took a bit of the 40s with bet365..
 
Outsider said:
If you look at the result of the earl of Sexton stakes at newmarket then your circus couture looks to have a decent chance in the royal hunt cup.
3rd at 100/1 last year off 106 and after its last run has been dropped to 97 and I've took a bit of the 40s with bet365..
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Sshhhhhhhhh.....
 
Epsom Dash - Harome 25/1 - I think I might have put this up earlier in the thread this season but now that I've done the figures I couldn't see me not backing it so went in this evening. He might end up having problems with Hathiq and Duke Of Firenze but they might be better prices on Saturday morning, whereas Harome might be a bit shorter. On my figures he's well up to winning a normal renewal but with the other two there it might not be a normal one. Still, Hathiq might bounce and maybe DOF isn't quite as good as he once was.
 
Derby - Humanitarian 100/1 - I'm not suggesting this will win but I took it ew this evening. I'll probably check what kind of place-only price is going on Saturday morning. Gosden tends not to tilt at windmills, even with his outsiders, so I would be very surprised if such big odds were still available towards the off. The much-vaunted Private Secretary was rerouted away from this race yet he was down to about 14/1 based on the hype. If Humanitarian is deemed the better candidate I want to be involved at 100s...
 
Line Of Duty - Derby. 50/1 B365 Cracking 2yo culminating in a Breeder's Cup win.
Haven't a clue what happened in the Dante (went off 2nd fav to TDH) but trainer tries cheekpieces in an effort to sort him out.
Purely speculative punt, but a nice price.
 
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